They entered the World Series as the biggest underdogs in over a decade. And it’s been that kind of season for the Washington Nationals, even after they got hot over the summer. Only now, up 2-0, are they considered favorites to win it all.
Back in spring training you could get 20-1 odds on the Nationals winning it all. And early on, that number only kept going down. By late May the team had plummeted to 50-1 underdogs, meaning a $50 bet on them, laughable at the time, would pay off $2,500 if the Nats win two more games.
But things turned around faster on the field for the Nationals than they did in Vegas, which was slow to change its Natitude about the local baseball team. And since we don’t believe in jinxes here, we can talk about the potential payouts a World Series title in D.C. could net someone.
“Before the postseason, they were 14-1. So that’s a $700 profit [on a $50 wager]; after the wild card, 10-1,” said Dave Mason, the sportsbook manager for Betonline.ag. When the World Series began, you could still get almost 2-1 odds. “They’re the biggest underdog to go into a World Series since 2007, I believe it was.”
That’s because all year long, the Houston Astros were the prohibitive favorites to win it all. They were expected to get here, and then romp their way past the Nationals.
“The Astros were … about -220, so you’d have to risk $110 to win $50,” said Mason. Even after falling behind 1-0 in the series, the odds essentially became a pick’em, though oddsmakers were still giving Houston a slight advantage to come back and win it all.
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But now that the series shifts to D.C. with the Nationals up 2-0, Washington has finally become the favorites.
“They’re a -267, which means you have to risk $267 to win $100, where the Astros are now the underdogs at +227, which means if you risk $100 your profit would be $227,” said Mason.
But what that means is some of the heavy betters who may have picked the Nationals early on are starting to hedge their bets and putting money on Houston too, so that no matter who wins, they’ll come out on top.
“If they bet $100 on the Nationals at the beginning of the series at +190, to win $190, now they can bet another $100 on the Astros at +227 to win $227, so you take the $100 out, you have a guaranteed profit no matter which side wins,” said Mason.
So while the series isn’t over yet, it shows you just how much faith, or lack thereof, there was in the Nationals by anyone else who isn’t a die-hard.
