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In the shadow of a historic presidential race, Virginians are voting to elect future members of Congress, with several of those races expected to have narrow paths to victory.
Analysts and polls indicate Vice President Kamala Harris has a lead over former President Donald Trump in Virginia. That shouldn’t come as a surprise as the state’s 13 electoral votes have gone toward the Democratic presidential nominee since 2008.
Similarly, Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine, who has served since 2013, also has a comfortable lead over his Republican challenger, Hung Cao.
But some of the most competitive races for the U.S. House are up in the air in Northern Virginia. All 11 of Virginia’s seats in the lower chamber are on the ballot, including three open seats.
“Most people during presidential election years focus at the quote, ‘top of the ticket,’ and yet a whole range of other ballot issues are important too,” said Karen Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech. “It’s important to pay attention to the full range of positions.”
Northern Virginia’s open congressional seat — the 10th District
The 10th District, which includes a large swath of Loudoun County, has undergone considerable change in recent years.
For decades, the district was represented by a Republican, but that changed in 2018 when Democrat Jennifer Wexton defeated the GOP incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock.
Wexton was reelected twice, but is leaving Congress due to a health issue.
The race for her seat pits Democratic state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam against Republican Mike Clancy, a lawyer and business executive.
In a reflection of how much things have changed in the district, Comstock has endorsed the Democratic candidate.
Former Rep. Frank Wolf, a Republican who for many years represented the district, has endorsed Clancy.
Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia political scientist who works on the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said the suburban district looks a lot different politically than it did even a decade ago.
“I think it’s sort of solidified into a Democratic leaning district,” Kondik said. “We have this race as ‘safe Democratic’ in our in our ratings, although … look, there’s still a lot of Republican tradition in this district, and I think that Republicans do try to compete for it.”
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Subramanyam, who once worked in the administration of former President Barack Obama, has sought to tie Clancy to “Project 2025,” The Heritage Foundation policy blueprint for a Republican administration.
Trump has sought to distance himself from it, even though its contributors include many people who worked for him while he was in the White House.
Clancy, who acknowledges having supported The Heritage Foundation, has said he has no connection to Project 2025.
Project 2025 has been raised in part by Subramanyam because if some of its policies are implemented, they could impact federal workers, who have significant representation in the 10th District.
Clancy has argued for a tougher approach to immigration issues, echoing the former president.
While the district has trended toward Democrats, Cao — who is now running for U.S. Senate — came closer to winning in 2022.
Wexton won by double digits in 2018 and 2020.
But after the district was redrawn, Cao only lost by about six percentage points two years ago.
Still, Kondik noted that the district has not drawn a lot of outside Republican funding, unlike other congressional districts.
Army veterans face off in District 7 for open congressional seat
In neighboring District 7, Rep. Abigail Spanberger is stepping down from her seat to run for the Democratic nomination for governor of Virginia next year.
Republican Derrick Anderson is hoping to beat out Democrat Eugene Vindman to flip the seat for his party. Both candidates are Army veterans and lawyers: Anderson a former Army Green Beret and Vindman a former U.S. Army lieutenant colonel.
Grounded in Prince William County, the district includes Stafford, Spotsylvania and Culpeper counties and stretches south to Fredericksburg.
“That means then there’s a real mix of influences and voter perceptions in that district,” Hult said, calling it a “prototypical competitive swing district.”
The district has been a toss-up in the past, including when Spanberger beat out Republican incumbent Rep. Dave Brat in 2018. Before that, Brat had upset the incumbent Republican in the 2016 primary, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor.
“Vindman has relatively loose ties to the actual district, and I think particularly during the primary, there was some skepticism even among the Democrats about him,” Kondik said.
Still, Kondik said Vindman has a “slight edge” in the race.
“You’d expect the presidential tide to ultimately break in his favor in a district that you know voted more Democratic than the nation did in 2020,” Kondik said. “But there’s certainly upset potential for Anderson in that race.”
Many voters were first introduced to Vindman during the first impeachment case against Trump. Vindman and his twin brother helped flag a 2019 phone call between Trump and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which led to the former president’s first impeachment.
How District 7’s makeup differs from District 10
The median household income in District 7 is lower than in District 10, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
“There’s also a difference in terms of educational attainment, to the extent that we think there is a bit of an education gap, if you will, in who voters are preferring,” Hult said.
In District 10, about 57% of people have a bachelor’s degree or higher, according to data from the 2023 U.S. Census.
Whereas in District 7, 37.6% of residents have achieved that level of education.
The jobs held by residents in District 7 could play into which party voters side with.
“That may mean that in this district, there’s going to be a lot of interest in what’s going on with veterans, with military employment, but also with government employment, more generally, including civilian federal employment,” Hult said.
There’s a larger number of veterans who live in District 7, an estimated 12% of residents.
Many people who live there are government employees — an estimated 13.6% of those employed in the district are federal workers, according to a September report by the Congressional Research Service.
For one, Trump has proposed relocating 100,000 federal jobs out of Virginia, Maryland and D.C. under his Agenda 27 plan.
Both Vindman and Anderson have spoken out against moving those jobs out of Virginia.
Similar to the race in District 10, Anderson has said he would not carry out Project 2025, which would put in place major overhauls of the federal workforce.
Vindman said that plan would replace nonpartisan employees with employees who are loyal to whichever party is in the White House, according to reporting from WTOP’s partners at InsideNova.
Other issues on the minds of voters resemble top issues cited by voters nationwide.
“All of that may be on the ballot, along with the economy and reproductive rights, to a lesser extent but still there in District 7,” Hult said.
Big spending
Political parties shell out cash for US House Republican candidate
Millions of dollars are pouring into Virginia House races and District 7 may top the list for most raised. That’s a signal of how competitive the district is believed to be.
“People that live in this district are getting lots of mailings, maybe a lot of canvassers knocking at their door, but certainly they’re getting a lot of social media and other messaging as well,” Hult said.
Vindman raised $14 million, as of the end of September, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. In comparison, the next closest candidate, incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans, raised $5.6 million in the Hampton Roads area
Vindman’s opponent, Anderson, raked in $2.55 million.
“What we’re seeing there is that both congressional parties are giving money to the two candidates,” Hult said.
“Both candidates are seen from the outside as quality candidates that will be running good campaigns,” Hult added. “For candidates and election spending, once one gets above a certain level, additional money doesn’t really help that much.”
Outside of money from donors, the amount of independent expenditures is something to keep an eye on, Hult said. A whopping $2.77 million has been spent in that area, which includes money spent to support or attack a candidate without coordination through a campaign.
About a million dollars of those independent expenditures went toward pro-Anderson messaging as the candidate has received support from the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee.
“The national Republicans say, ‘This is a clear pick up on the on the Republican side,’ from their perspective,” Hult said. “In contrast, the Democrats are saying, ‘No, we want to hold this seat.’”
With the race in District 7 expected to be close, much like the presidential race, Hult cautioned against overemphasizing money raised or polling as indicators of what will happen in the election.
Millions of dollars pour into US Senate race
Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is seeking his third term, in a race with Hung Cao that’s received less attention in the D.C. area than the Maryland U.S. Senate race.
That’s not surprising, given Maryland’s race between Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Larry Hogan is the state’s most competitive U.S. Senate contest in decades.
But there’s still considerable interest in the race in the Commonwealth, where Kaine and Cao have raised more than $25 million for their campaigns. Kaine, as an incumbent, has raised close to three times more than Cao.
Hult said Cao has been getting money and support from outside Virginia.
That’s an indication of some national attention the race is getting, as both parties battle in an election where control of the U.S. Senate could turn on just a couple of races.
“It does seem as though, as often happens as we get closer to the election, that race is narrowing a bit,” Hult said.
But like other political analysts, she believes Kaine is the odds-on favorite to win.
Kondik thinks the results of the presidential race and the Virginia U.S. Senate race will track fairly close. But he said Kaine may outperform Harris by a few points.
At one point there was discussion that Virginia might be in play in the presidential race, but that appears to have faded.
“Harris is, I think, in good shape in Virginia, and I think by extension, Kaine is in good shape too,” Kondik said.
Still, many credit Cao for running another solid campaign, as he did when he ran for the House.
He has the backing of Trump and has stressed a lot of issues popular with voters, including securing the border and holding the line on taxes.
If Cao loses this race, he’s not likely to fade away. The military veteran has shown he can raise money and run competitive campaigns.
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