WASHINGTON — If you want to make some money this Saturday betting on the Preakness, you’re either really rich or just dreaming if you think it can be done picking Always Dreaming to win the second leg of the Triple Crown.
At 4-5 odds, the Kentucky Derby winner won’t net you much at all if you’re betting straight up. And unlike the Derby, the field is cut in half, so Always Dreaming will only be running against nine other horses. Here’s how they line up:
TERM OF ART (by Tiznow) with Jonny Garcia aboard this morning at @PimlicoRC - trainer @DougONeill1 . #Preakness2017 pic.twitter.com/yorH3xedAM
— Barbara Livingston (@DRFLivingston) May 17, 2017
Can Always Dreaming light up the horse-racing world and even draw in mainstream sports fans by winning the Preakness, thus allowing the opportunity for a second Triple Crown winner in the last three years? Certainly. He’s the horse to beat, trained by the legend Todd Pletcher, and has the leading money-earning jockey aboard. He’s also really only one of three true speed horses in the Preakness field, along with newcomer Conquest Mo Money, and again, it helps that there is less competition.
All that being said, here’s how I see the Preakness playing out on Saturday:
WIN: No. 5 Classic Empire
The original favorite in the Kentucky Derby when the initial live odds dropped, Empire finished the first leg of the Triple Crown fourth. He was bumped early in the race, which knocked him back and took him out of position even after he broke out of the gate quite nicely.
In the Preakness, I believe his jockey — Julien Leparoux, who has won seven Breeders’ Cup Races in his career — will stalk Always Dreaming and be right up close after the first quarter mile. He’s got the speed to keep pace, and if he runs like he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November (with Leparoux aboard), he will win. With less chance to get bumped in the smaller field and with distance not an issue, Empire will break the hearts of those who were hoping to see a Triple Crown Contender.
PLACE: No. 10 Conquest Mo Money
Owner Tom McKenna of Judge Lanier Racing in New Mexico decided to skip the Kentucky Derby despite earning enough points as Conquest Mo Money won his first three races at Sunland Park and finished second in his last two, the Sunland Derby and the Arkansas Derby.
It would not surprise me at all if Conquest Mo Money broke out of the gate and led the race for a good portion. I don’t envision Always Dreaming conceding the early lead however I believe Conquest Mo Money has the best early speed of the field.
All that being said, this pick is more about winning some money in an exacta rather than predicting exactly how they’ll finish. I’m still interested so see if he’s capable of outfooting Always Dreaming down the stretch, but at 15-1 odds, he certainly helps your chances of having a nice payday. Hit that — as opposed to having the second favorite and favorite in your exacta — and you can take your significant other to Ruth’s Chris instead of Hardee’s.
SHOW: No. 4 Always Dreaming
As I mentioned before my picks, Always Dreaming can certainly win this race. But at 4-5 odds, where is the value in that?
The Kentucky Derby winner had as good a trip as he could have hoped for. He was on the rail chasing the horse that was going to collapse, setting him up perfectly to gallop to victory. He scored a huge victory winning the Florida Derby where he was sitting in second before his stable mate faded. He’s been very fortunate with two perfect trips and he could certainly have a third at Pimlico.
If you’re doing a superfecta this weekend, include Always Dreaming in there as I don’t see any chance of a finish outside of Top 4 unless there is injury. I’d still include him in trifectas too if you’re OK with walking out of Pimlico, Laurel or wherever you’re placing bets, with a modest chunk of change.
DARK HORSE: No. 3 Hence
I tussled with Hence and Cloud Computing in this spot. But I’ll take the No. 3 Hence, who has better odds and is trained by a two-time Preakness winner in Steve Asmussen (2007-Curlin, 2009-Rachel Alexandra).
