AFC North
Ravens 13-4
In 2023 (and arguably, the prior two seasons), the only team that could beat the Baltimore Ravens was the Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore was the first team in NFL history to lead the league in takeaways, sacks and total defense in the same season, and held Patrick Mahomes and the potent Chiefs scoreless in the second half of the AFC championship game. That Ravens defense no longer has its sack leader or its coordinator (one of four defensive coaching changes), and the offense has three new starters on the offensive line.
Plus, quarterback Lamar Jackson didn’t exorcise his playoff demons, rather adding one more Stay Puft Marshmallow Man to his belfry.
But Derrick Henry will help Jackson greatly … and help send almost a literal ton downhill at opposing linebackers.
Fun fact: the Ravens new RB/FB duo weighs a combined 558lbs … have fun defenses. pic.twitter.com/Vulu4KQF5x
— Zach Bollinger (@zachbollinger18) March 12, 2024
Baltimore has finished in the top three in fewest points allowed for five of the past six seasons, which predates the departed Mike MacDonald and includes new coordinator Zach Orr. The Ravens drafted Nate Wiggins to help solidify the secondary for a team with an NFL-best +16 rest advantage.
Bottom line: Rumors of the Ravens’ demise are premature. The championship window is still open for a team that’s on pace to win a Super Bowl every 12 years since 2000.
Bengals 12-5
Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back and flanking him with massive Browns (which is ironic, given the team was founded by a Brown).
Now that Cincinnati has announced its signing of OT Trent Brown, Bengals QB Joe Burrow will have two XL OT Browns protecting him this season: pic.twitter.com/XIEfPmVWHV
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 19, 2024
Burrow’s offense and a sneaky-good Bengals defense will get Cincy back to the playoffs — and maybe even stick around awhile.
Browns 10-7
Cleveland returns most of the pieces from the top-ranked defense in 2023, which they’ll need to be great again to compete in the NFL’s deepest and best division. Deshaun Watson has yet to demonstrate he’s the elite passer he was in Houston in 2020 — but if he does somehow return to form, the Browns could win its division for the first time since 1989 when said division was the AFC Central.
Steelers 9-8
Russell Wilson won the quarterback competition over Justin Fields, and this is probably part of why: Wilson has an 80.7 QBR against the AFC North — only Patrick Mahomes (also against the AFC North) has a better QBR against a single division since 2006.
But both Wilson and Fields have had a negative play problem, which doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh franchise with a stingy defense and needs a QB that will simply protect the football.
The Steelers have a brutal season-ending stretch that’s by far the league’s toughest and in true Steelers form, I expect them to beat the Bengals in Week 18 to continue Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons — but it won’t be enough to return to the postseason.
AFC East
Dolphins 11-6
The Dolphins’ last playoff win was 23 years ago when the Miami team coached by Dave Wannstedt and quarterbacked by Jay Fiedler won in the wild-card round.
Miami is well aware of its folding chair reputation and will need to at least win its division to stop the drought. The speed on offense will drive the Dolphins attack but the defense will keep Miami from a long stay in the playoffs.
Jets 10-7
The Jets are gonna Jets.
From a weird 40-year-old quarterback returning from injury to a weird situation with Haason Reddick, the Aaron Rodgers Jets seem fated to underachieve like the last Jets team to recycle a Packers legend. The longest playoff drought in professional sports ends … but with a brief stay.
Bills 8-9
Six of the Buffalo’s eight team captains last year were moved in the offseason, including Stefon Diggs.
Matt Milano’s torn biceps is a huge loss to a Bills defense that ranked fourth in scoring and ninth in total defense last season.
Josh Allen is about to show us whether he’s really elite. Fair or not, Buffalo’s fate and Allen’s own standing among the game’s top quarterbacks depends on his performance in 2024.
Patriots 4-13
Here’s what this season is for New England: Developing Drake Maye.
That’s it. That’s the list.
Yet, Jacoby Brissett is starting the season so there’s no telling when the Patriots’ return to relevance truly begins.
AFC West
Chiefs 12-5
Patrick Mahomes has been called the Steph Curry of the NFL. And like Curry, he’s got Kansas City in the midst of a dynasty reminiscent of the Golden State Warriors of the 2010s.
The Chiefs added Marquise Brown (a poor man’s Tyreek Hill) and drafted Xavier Worthy, another receiver with track speed. So expect more video game numbers in Kansas City, more double-digit wins and a deep playoff run that will threaten to do the unprecedented.
Chargers 10-7
Trouble followed Jim Harbaugh to L.A. and travel will keep his return to the NFL from being as successful as hoped.
The Chargers’ 26,803 miles of travel this season and 36 time zone changes are the most in the NFL by far, which will keep L.A. hovering around .500 — that, and a lackluster group of skill position players to support Justin Herbert. But I have a feeling Harbaugh will unlock Herbert enough to finally rise to playoff contender.
Raiders 9-8
Head coach Antonio Pierce has been poking the Mahomes bear, a questionable approach to a quarterback that’s been a stone-cold killer on the field.
But even if Christian Wilkins is indeed “a blessing,” no such grace came on offense when the Raiders settled on Gardner Minshew at quarterback after the big six QB options all went in the top 12 of the NFL Draft.
The moxy of Pierce and Minshew will keep Vegas around .500, at best.
Broncos 3-14
Denver released Russell Wilson in favor of a trio of “orphan dogs” that includes rookie Bo Nix, surprisingly selected 12th overall in the draft. He’ll start for the Broncos, the first rookie Week 1 starter at QB since John Elway in 1983.
Sean Payton told The Athletic’s Dianna Russini he believes in Nix as strongly as he did Patrick Mahomes. And he better be right.
The Wilson release resulted in an $85 million bath, by far the largest dead cap hit in NFL history so Denver has to build on the cheap. They’ll get what they paid for in 2024.
AFC South
Texans 12-5
Houston not only added star power but unprecedented production with Stefon Diggs, Josh Mixon and Danielle Hunter.
Those three high-profile additions make the Texans the first team in NFL history to acquire in the same offseason players who in the previous season were a 100-catch receiver, 1,000-yard rusher and 10-sack edge rusher.
Assuming age and mileage don’t render those veteran additions moot, CJ Stroud at the helm of the Texans’ no-limit offense will keep Houston atop the otherwise unimpressive AFC South — and maybe even a deeper run in the playoffs.
Jaguars 9-8
I think Brian Thomas (whose parents provided perhaps the funniest moment of draft night) is a stud, but he’s catching passes from the most overrated quarterback in the league.
two wild stats about a talented QB:
Trevor Lawrence is 1-18 when his defense doesn’t record a takeaway
1-18 (. 053)!!!
WORST record for any QB
Lawrence has also LOST 21 fumbles the last 3 seasons
WORST in the NFL
(no other QB even has 15, let alone over 20)
MUST fix this pic.twitter.com/1bqc2YRXTC
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 28, 2024
If the Jags are any worse than my prediction, Doug Pederson figures to be done. But I think they’ll contend for a wild-card spot in the uber-competitive AFC.
Colts 4-13
Did you know Indianapolis hasn’t had a 6+ interception player since Ray Bucannon in 1994, making the Colts the only NFL team without a 6+ interception player in the not-so-new millennium? (It’s probably not relevant, just really interesting.)
Anthony Richardson is back from the injury that cost him most of his rookie season but given his inexperience at both the collegiate and pro levels, I’m really skeptical about his ability to lead the Colts to prominence.
Titans 4-13
Tennessee’s starting quarterback is inextricably linked with mayonnaise. Do I really need to expound on this?
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