Washington 10-7
You may be surprised to see Burgundy and Gold place this high — but hear me out.
Basically, Washington already won its Super Bowl by getting new, nontoxic ownership. From the wave of good vibes at Commanders training camp to the revelation of Sam Howell as quarterback, expectations for the Commanders are higher than they’ve been in at least a decade.
The fact is Washington has been competitive even with sheer misery at QB. No one has had more starting QBs since 2018 than Washington’s 12, and that dirty dozen amassed the NFL’s worst total QBR (37.8). New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is ruffling the appropriate feathers and if the offense we saw in the preseason is just a watered-down version of what we’ll see in the regular season, it should be the most exciting unit we’ve seen since RGIII’s thrilling Rookie of the Year campaign.
Sam Howell will play well and Washington is a sleeper team in the NFC. They will be a playoff team.
— Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) August 18, 2023
The defense has two pass rushers (Chase Young and Montez Sweat) in a contract year with something to prove and Joey Slye is turning into a reliable kicker, making this is the most complete team Washington has had in at least a decade.
This prediction comes with a couple of big caveats — there are new starters at four offensive line spots (free agency additions Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie are nice depth but spending substantial money on them as entrenched starters seems like a sucker’s bet) and Washington is again saddled with a Week 14 bye. However, their +12 net rest advantage is tied for the best in the NFL so the late bye may not matter.
Every year, an NFL team goes from worst to first — and the Commanders doing it in a highly competitive division that’s gone nearly two decades without a repeat champion makes sense. And winning it — and at least a playoff game or two — is the only way Rivera gets another year in Washington.
Eagles 10-7
Another reason for Washington to win the NFC East? This division hasn’t had a repeat champion in 19 years.
While Philly is good enough to do it, I worry about a Super Bowl hangover for a team that was heartbreakingly close to winning an epic title bout.
Take into account the loss of both coordinators, multiple defensive starters and a brutal slate of games out of the bye week (the Super Bowl rematch with Kansas City begins a stretch of six straight games against teams that made the playoffs in 2022) and it feels like the Eagles won’t fly nearly has high as they did last year.
Cowboys 9-8
Another year, another talented team in Dallas underachieves.
It arguably began with the puzzling decision to move on from Kellen Moore, whose productive offense rivaled Kansas City as the highest scoring units in the NFL. Mike McCarthy now favors the so-called “Texas Coast” offense. However it’s billed — “Dak-friendly” among them — I predict the Texas Coast will be more like Texas Toast, especially if the controversial trade for Trey Lance begets actually starting the former No. 3 overall pick.
As talented as the Cowboys are the Big D in Dallas stands for drama — and it will have “Dem Boys” flirting with a last place finish and another rebuild.
Giants 8-9
Look, last season New York way overachieved. Advancing to the playoffs, let alone winning a game, was nothing shy of magical under new coach Brian Daboll.
This year, Darren Waller eats in the middle of the Giants offense to provide the reliable target that Daniel Jones has been lacking for (*checks notes*) his entire career. Even still, the receiving corps is as suspect as ever and the offensive line is breaking in a rookie center who insists on dead-snapping the ball to a turnover-prone QB.
Furthermore, the Giants play seven of their first 10 games on the road. They’ll play three games in 11 days, and three of their first four games will be in prime-time. Daboll looks like a fine coach … but so did Matt Nagy in Chicago after his first season. This feels like a fade-back year for Big Blue in a highly competitive division.
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
