College Football Playoff preview and predictions

WASHINGTON — At long last, the College Football Playoff is upon us. And while the games being played on New Year’s Eve is a great disservice to college football fans everywhere (and really only benefits the New Year’s Day bowls, which won’t suffer any rescheduling or viewing competition), at least we still have a playoff.

And unlike last year, there was little debate as to who deserved the top four spots once the dust had settled on the season. Clemson ran the table, Alabama proved to be the class of the SEC, Michigan State-Iowa served as a de facto national quarterfinal, Oklahoma won the Big 12 outright, and the Pac-12 self-cannibalized.

That leaves us with the pair of semifinal games running back-to-back on Thursday. The winners will square off for the national title Monday, Jan. 11 in Glendale, Arizona. Let’s break down the matchups and predict who those two teams will be.

Capital One Orange Bowl at Sun Life Stadium

#4 Oklahoma vs. #1 Clemson

The best thing that could have happened to Oklahoma, other than getting to the Playoff in the first place, was to end the year ranked #4. Clemson may be the weakest team in the field despite their ranking, and the Tigers are in a perfect position to be upended in the first semifinal Thursday afternoon. The odds makers agree — the Sooners enter the contest as four-point favorites.

To begin to understand why, know that Clemson posted the 10^th-best point differential, but faced just the 41^st-toughest schedule in the country. Both Oklahoma and Alabama had much tougher competition (SOS of 19 and 4, respectively) while posting the top and sixth-best point differentials. Arguably the best team Clemson faced all year was Notre Dame, which they escaped on a failed two-point conversion in a downpour. Most recently, the Tigers were pushed to the limit by a North Carolina team that was drubbed by Baylor in their bowl game Tuesday night despite the Bears having no healthy quarterbacks and relying entirely on their running game, which trucked the Tar Heels for 645 yards.

That would be the same Baylor team that Oklahoma beat by 10, in Waco, when the Bears had at least one healthy arm behind center in freshman Jarrett Stidham. Since their embarrassing Red River Rivalry loss to Texas, the Sooners have reeled off seven straight wins by an average of 32.5 points per contest, including a 35-point deconstruction of rival Oklahoma State in Stillwater to close the season.

Predictions

Noah Frank: The Sooners’ offense will be the best one the Tigers have seen all season, and Baker Mayfield the best quarterback. Deshaun Watson and company can score, and will do their best to keep it close, but Oklahoma will prevail.

Oklahoma 38, Clemson 28

Dave Preston: The Tigers may be unbeaten but have the feel of last year’s Florida State squad: equal parts lucky and untested. Deon Cain’s suspension will hamper the passing game — he ranks second on the team in receiving yards and touchdown catches. The Sooners emerged from a better Big 12 and are still seeing red over losing to burnt orange-clad Texas in October. They’ll take it out on a different shade of orange in Miami.

Oklahoma 35, Clemson 27 

Goodyear Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium

#3 Michigan State vs. #2 Alabama

If you’re in the “Vegas always knows” camp, there should be no doubt in your mind that Alabama is the clear favorite in the nightcap, with the line sitting at an even 10 points heading into Wednesday evening. Michigan State played some of its best football at the end of the season, but squeezed out victories over bottom feeders like Purdue and Rutgers, and won six of their 12 games by a single possession.

Alabama, on the other hand, played only a single one-possession game (other than their loss to Mississippi State) all season. In their six wins over ranked teams, the Crimson Tide’s margin of victory was 19.5 and they allowed an average of just 14.5 points. Style points don’t matter anymore, but to ignore Alabama’s dominance would be foolish.

Michigan State relishes their role as underdogs, which they will most certainly be Thursday night. But do the Spartans enough offense to score against a defense that has allowed more than 16 points just once in its last 10 games?

Predictions

Noah Frank: Sparty can lean on its self-appointed underdog role, but Alabama’s defense will stifle them and grind the game away on the ground behind Derrick Henry, controlling the clock and the time of possession. This team is simply not as talented as the Ohio State squad that shocked the Tide last year.

Alabama 27, Michigan State 10

Dave Preston: The Spartans are no stranger to nail-biters this year: 6 of their 12 wins have come by less than a touchdown. Nipping previously unbeatens Ohio State and Iowa is one thing, but scraping past Purdue and Rutgers? The Crimson Tide defense recovered from a less than stellar September (70 points allowed in their first 3 games) … and coach Nick Saban says he didn’t prepare his team well for last year’s Sugar Bowl.  They’ll be ready this year.

Alabama 22, Michigan State 14