WASHINGTON — The College Football Playoff committee is set to release its first rankings Tuesday evening, and if last year’s inaugural committee was any harbinger of things to come, I can guarantee two things: The rankings will be controversial, and they will not be reflective of the actual final four.
In an effort to try to correctly predict who the committee will select this year, I created a model that would attempt to appropriately quantify the various components that the committee is supposed to consider when making their decisions. That means that in addition to record, both strength of schedule and margin (or quality) of victory factor into the composite scores for each team. And as most are only halfway through their conference slates, the quality of non-conference opponent weighs more heavily now than it will by the end of the year.
As there are still a number of games to play for each team, these rankings — if the model works as intended — will not look as much like the list the committee will put out Tuesday (which will almost undoubtedly include all undefeated teams), but should look much more like the final edition. So, with no further ado, let’s get to the rankings.
(WTOP/Noah Frank)
WTOP/Noah Frank
#11-#20
20. Michigan, 19. Mississippi State, 18. BYU, 17. Texas A&M, 16. Memphis
15. Ole Miss, 14. Utah, 13. Stanford, 12. Michigan State, 11. Baylor
The clearest outlier between the way the teams sit now and how the committee will likely rank them is #11 Baylor. The first poll couldn’t come at a worse time for the Bears in terms of the way their schedule is laid out, as their toughest three opponents by far — Oklahoma (10), Oklahoma State (8) and TCU (3) — all lie ahead in consecutive November weekends. While Baylor’s nation-leading 36 point-per-game victory margin will likely dissipate during those contests, if they can win them, the Bears will pull their strength of schedule anchor from the dredges (100th in FBS) in a hurry and fly up the rankings.
The PAC-12 can take solace in Stanford and Utah sitting at 13 and 14, knowing that if either team can run the table, there are losses coming from the teams in front of them.
Looking for a party-crasher from this group? #16 Memphis has quality opponents remaining in Navy (#29), Houston (#22) and Temple (#33). If they survive that stretch with their quality win over Ole Miss already in their pocket, they could navigate past a number of one-loss teams and right into the top four.
(AP Photo/Rod Aydelotte)
AP Photo/Rod Aydelotte
#5-#10
10. Oklahoma, 9. Ohio State, 8. Oklahoma State,
7. Iowa, 6. Clemson, 5. Florida
Florida will have to survive a late visit from Florida State and win the SEC title game to force their way into the picture, but we basically already knew that. It helps that their lone loss it to currently undefeated LSU.
Iowa doesn’t play a team ranked higher than 67th (Minnesota) the rest of the way, with the average rank of their final four opponents a measly 83. Even with wins, the pack should catch them by merit of schedule strength. Nevertheless, if the Hawkeyes navigate their easy slate and somehow find a way to win the Big 10 title game over either Ohio State or Michigan State, they’re in. And yes, Ohio State ranks this poorly almost entirely because of their strength of schedule to date, which includes #117 Hawaii, a disappointing Virginia Tech (#73) and Big 10 bottom feeders Maryland and Rutgers.
While neither the Buckeyes nor the Spartans rank very high right now, they will benefit from playing each other down the stretch, in addition to one other quality opponent (Penn State for MSU, Michigan for OSU). That will especially benefit the Spartans, who have just the 38th-best net scoring in the country, behind even four-loss Tennessee.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
The Top Four
4. LSU, 3. TCU, 2. Notre Dame, 1. Alabama
Alabama sits up top largely due to their strong schedule (9th in FBS) and their 17.1 point per game margin of victory (18th in FBS), which are large enough to outweigh their loss. Their game against #4 LSU will help the system sort itself out, as only one team can win and make the conference title game out of the SEC West.
Notre Dame has survived a rough schedule (16th) largely unscathed, edging the other two top-four teams by a fraction of a point in the raw scoring. Their closing stretch includes a couple bad teams (Wake Forest and Boston College) but also a decent one in Pitt and a top 15 team in Stanford. This lends credence to the idea that a one-loss Notre Dame could merit strong playoff consideration.
Given the schedule so far, TCU’s inclusion shouldn’t be a surprise. They’ve survived their tests thus far and have the 4th-best scoring margin in the country. The Horned Frogs are actually tied with LSU for the third spot.
(AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
The Formula
The actual formula adds strength of schedule rank with point differential rank and conference RPI times 10, adds 20 points for every loss, then divides that total by the team’s winning percentage. The lower the raw score, the better. Rankings for week of 11.3 shown above.
