WTOP Sports' Noah Frank and Dave Preston share their picks for early upsets and sleepers, then look deeper into the numbers below to determine which teams will survive the bracket and head to the Final Four.
#1 Kentucky vs. #16 Manhattan/Hampton
Dave says: Kentucky
Noah says: Kentucky
Dave Preston: What will the over/under be for Ashley Judd shots? Dick Vitale references?
(Getty Images/Andy Lyons)
Getty Images/Andy Lyons
#8 Cincinnati vs. #9 Purdue
Dave says: Purdue
Noah says: Purdue
Noah Frank: Purdue could have been a nice sleeper pick to go the Sweet 16…if they’d had a better draw than Kentucky.
(Getty Images/Mike McGinnis)
Getty Images/Mike McGinnis
#5 West Virginia vs. #12 Buffalo
Dave says: Buffalo
Noah says: West Virginia
DP: Bob Huggins at Cincinnati lost with better teams…and these Mountaineers are a bad-shooting bunch (282nd in Division I).
(Getty Images/Ed Zurga)
Getty Images/Ed Zurga
#4 Maryland vs. #13 Valparaiso
Dave says: Maryland
Noah says: Maryland
DP: The Terps can’t compound a seeding slight with a first round no-show, can they?
(Getty Images/Eric Francis)
Getty Images/Eric Francis
#6 Butler vs. #11 Texas
Dave says: Butler
Noah says: Texas
NF: You can argue that Texas shouldn’t have gotten in, but KenPom has them as the 20th-best team overall, and top 50 in both efficiency ratings. I have them in the Sweet 16.
(Getty Images/Chris Covatta)
Getty Images/Chris Covatta
#3 Notre Dame vs. #14 Northeastern
Dave says: Notre Dame
Noah says: Notre Dame
DP: This is the best Fighting Irish team since the Kelly Tripucka squad was upset by Danny Ainge’s coast to coast layup in 1981.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#7 Wichita State vs. #10 Indiana
Dave says: Wichita State
Noah says: Wichita State
NF: Indiana can score (10th-best offensive efficiency) but their defense is the fifth worst…in the entire 68-team field.
(Getty Images/Dilip Vishwanat)
Getty Images/Dilip Vishwanat
#2 Kansas vs. #15 New Mexico State
Dave says: Kansas
Noah says: Kansas
NF: Nothing brewing in round one, but the Jayhawks will have their hands full with Wichita State.
(Getty Images/Jamie Squire)
Getty Images/Jamie Squire
#1 Villanova vs. #16 Lafayette
Dave says: Villanova
Noah says: Villanova
DP: Nice in-state matchup…with ‘Nova grad Fran O’Hanlon coaching the Leopards against his alma mater.
(Getty Images/Elsa Garrison)
Getty Images/Elsa Garrison
#8 North Carolina State vs. #9 LSU
Dave says: NC State
Noah says: NC State
NF: Enigmatic NC State has lost to Wake Forest and Boston College, but hammered Duke and took Virginia to the wire. Provided they survive LSU, if anyone can stun a one seed in the first two rounds, it’s the Wolfpack.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#5 Northern Iowa vs. #12 Wyoming
Dave says: Northern Iowa
Noah says: Northern Iowa
DP: Fennis Dembo, where have you gone?
(Getty Images/Dilip Vishwanat)
Getty Images/Dilip Vishwanat
#4 Louisville vs. #13 UC Irvine
Dave says: Louisville
Noah says: Louisville
NF: Much will be made of Irvine’s 7-foot-6 and 7-foot-2 big men, but Louisville should survive here.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#6 Providence vs. #11 Boise/Dayton
Dave says: Dayton
Noah says: Dayton
NF: If Dayton can survive Boise State Friday, look for the experienced Flyers to trip up the fresh-faced Friars.
DP: Flyers go from the First Four in Dayton to the Round of 64 in Columbus? At least they’re not in the Midwest Regional (Cleveland).
(Getty Images/Alex Goodlett)
Getty Images/Alex Goodlett
#3 Oklahoma vs. #14 Albany
Dave says: Oklahoma
Noah says: Oklahoma
DP: Beware…the Great Danes’ mascot is a dead ringer for Scooby Doo.
(Getty Images/Ed Zurga)
Getty Images/Ed Zurga
#7 Michigan State vs. #10 Georgia
Dave says: Michigan State
Noah says: Michigan State
DP: The Spartans are the hot pick of teams outside of the top sixteen overall seeds.
(Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel)
Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel
#2 Virginia vs. #15 Belmont
Dave says: Virginia
Noah says: Virginia
DP: Cavalier barometer — how much and how well will Justin Anderson play?
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#1 Duke vs. #16 North Florida/Robert Morris
Dave says: Duke
Noah says: Duke
DP: The South is the softest of the four brackets.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#8 San Diego State vs. #9 St. John’s
Dave says: San Diego State
Noah says: San Diego State
DP: Either way, it could get ugly: six of the Red Storm’s last seven games were decided by double digits.
(Getty Images/David Becker)
Getty Images/David Becker
#5 Utah vs. #12 Stephen F. Austin
Dave says: Utah
Noah says: Stephen F. Austin
NF: Utah is capable of a run, thanks to their size and playmakers. But Stephen F. Austin returns nearly everyone from last year’s tournament team, which beat VCU. This edition is better, and Sweet 16-bound.
(Getty Images/Ethan Miller)
Getty Images/Ethan Miller
#4 Georgetown vs. #13 Eastern Washington
Dave says: Georgetown
Noah says: Eastern Washington
NF: Watch out, Hoyas. The Eagles beat Indiana at Assembly Hall this year, and Tyler Harvey is the kind of player (five games of 30 points or more) that can ruin seasons.
(Getty Images/Isaac Copeland)
Getty Images/Isaac Copeland
#6 SMU vs. #11 UCLA
Dave says: SMU
Noah says: UCLA
NF: No, UCLA doesn’t deserve to be in the field. But they’re better than SMU.
DP: SMU does the AAC proud.
(Getty Images/Ethan Miller)
Getty Images/Ethan Miller
#3 Iowa State vs. #14 UAB
Dave says: Iowa State
Noah says: Iowa State
NF: The best team in the country’s best conference, could Iowa State be primed for a deep run?
(Getty Images/Ed Zurga)
Getty Images/Ed Zurga
#7 Iowa vs. #10 Davidson
Dave says: Iowa
Noah says: Davidson
NF: Iowa’s clearly the third-best team in their own state, after getting drubbed by Iowa State and UNI. The Cyclones hung 90 points on the Hawkeyes — Davidson might do the same.
(Getty Images/Alex Goodlett)
Getty Images/Alex Goodlett
#2 Gonzaga vs. #15 North Dakota State
Dave says: Gonzaga
Noah says: Gonzaga
NF: The Zags are back — can Kentucky transfer Kyle Witljer lead them to Indy?
(Getty Images/Ethan Miller)
Getty Images/Ethan Miller
#1 Wisconsin vs. #16 Coastal Carolina
Dave says: Wisconsin
Noah says: Wisconsin
NF: This ain’t your daddy’s Bucky Badgers. Wisconsin ranks just 30th in defensive efficiency, but tops overall on the offensive side.
(Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel)
Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel
#8 Oregon vs. #9 Oklahoma State
Dave says: Oregon
Noah says: Oregon
NF: This one’s a toss-up, but neither team should trip up Wisconsin.
(Getty Images/Ethan Miller)
Getty Images/Ethan Miller
#5 Arkansas vs. #12 Wofford
Dave says: Arkansas
Noah says: Wofford
NF: Outside of Kentucky, the SEC was unimpressive at best this year. Arkansas’ defense (81st in the country) was just as mediocre. Wofford tested itself with games against Duke and West Virginia, and actually beat NC State on the road.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#4 North Carolina vs. #13 Harvard
Dave says: North Carolina
Noah says: North Carolina
DP: Leave it to the committee to match up UNC against a team coached by a Duke grad.
(Getty Images/Grant Halverson)
Getty Images/Grant Halverson
#6 Xavier vs. #11 Ole Miss/BYU
Dave says: Xavier
Noah says: Xavier
NF: Xavier lost to lowly Auburn (89 points) and Seton Hall (90) this year. They would have lost to run-and-gun BYU too, but got bailed out, facing Ole Miss instead.
(Getty Images/Elsa Garrison)
Getty Images/Elsa Garrison
#3 Baylor vs. #14 Georgia State
Dave says: Georgia State
Noah says: Baylor
DP: Panthers are the 17th best shooting team in Division I. Their coach Ron Hunter suffered an Achilles injury celebrating their Sun Belt Conference championship win.
(Getty Images/Sean Gardner)
Getty Images/Sean Gardner
#7 VCU vs. #10 Ohio State
Dave says: Ohio State
Noah says: VCU
DP: What if Briante Weber had stayed healthy?
NF: VCU’s playing their best ball since their senior leader shredded his knee. Don’t count out Shaka Smart.
(Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel)
Getty Images/Jonathan Daniel
#2 Arizona vs. #15 Texas Southern
Dave says: Arizona
Noah says: Arizona
DP: Wildcats should be a #1 seed.
NF: Can these Cats be Kentucky’s Kryptonite?
(Getty Images/Ethan Miller)
WASHINGTON — This time of year, everybody’s a college basketball expert.
But as any NCAA Tournament bracket veteran will tell you, no matter how many games you’ve watched or numbers you’ve crunched, you’re just as likely as anyone to get beaten in your pool by the intern who doesn’t watch sports and picked their winners based on the ferocity of each school’s mascots (Go Wildcats!).
Nevertheless, numbers can tell stories that our eyes don’t see. A team may have looked great in its conference tournament, but history tells us that there’s little to no correlation between that performance and NCAA Tournament success. Here are a few metrics worth looking at more closely, courtesy of the number crunchers at KenPom.com.
Efficiency
Teams are rated on their offensive and defensive efficiency, which measure how many points they score/allow per 100 possessions. Simply put, only teams with high marks in each make Final Four runs.
Specifically, 23 of the 52 Final Four team (44 percent) ranked in the top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency, with 47 (90 percent) in the top 50. Of the last 13 national champions, only one (UConn last year) ranked outside the top 18 entering the tournament.
In fact, when it comes to picking a national champion, every champ in the past 13 years has entered the tournament no worse than 18th in at least one of the two ranks. Nine of them have been in the top 20 in both categories, with four scoring in the top 10 in each.
There are 21 teams in this year’s field rank in the top 50 in each category, but only seven in the top 20 in both: Kentucky, Arizona, Villanova, Gonzaga, Utah, Northern Iowa and Wichita State.
Balance
When television commentators like Dick Vitale say that a team has great balance — like he did about Notre Dame while picking the Irish to make a deep run on ESPN Sunday night — he means offensive balance. While that’s great for a team’s ability to score (Notre Dame ranks second in the nation in offensive efficiency), it ignores defense. As it turns out, the Irish aren’t balanced at all on the other end of the floor, ranking 112th defensively. No other team seeded seventh or higher is worse than 82 (Iowa State) in defensive efficiency.
This makes Notre Dame something of a red herring. Only five teams with a defensive efficiency outside the top 50 have made the Final Four in the past 13 years, and only two outside the top 100. So if you’re looking for a sleeper to make a deep run, Notre Dame, Iowa State, Duke (57), Xavier (55), Arkansas (81), BYU (139), Davidson (180) and Stephen F. Austin (104) might not be the best selections.
Luck
KenPom’s Luck Rating is similar to a Pythagorean record in baseball, in that it attempts to remove some of the fortune involved in winning or losing close games and looks at the overall efficiencies of the teams involved. Sure, a team may win a lot of close games because it has great playmakers who can score a needed bucket, or good free throw shooters to seal a late lead. But there’s something to the luck offset when it comes to predicting the tournament.
Teams with high luck ratings have not generally fared well in the early rounds the past few years. Those ranking in the top 30 in luck since 2010 have combined for a 15-28 tournament record. That’s bad news for a crop of this year’s clubs, nine of which rank in the top 25, including Kansas (24) and especially Maryland (2).
A high luck rating is not necessarily a death knell, but could spell trouble. The truth is, it’s rare for a team in the top 30 in luck to be in position to be seeded so high. In 2013, New Mexico entered the tournament as a 3 seed with the 27th-highest luck rating. They were dispatched in the first round by 14-seed Harvard. In the same tournament, though, 3 seed Marquette (10th in luck rating) stormed all the way to the Elite Eight. But for every 2012 Norfolk State (number one in luck), a 15-seed that upset 2-seed Mizzou, there is a 2011 Notre Dame (23rd in luck), a team ousted in the second round by 10-seed Florida State.
UConn’s stunning 2013 run will give Terps fans hope. With a luck rating of 22, they managed to shock the world and win the national title as a 7 seed. But they are the only team with a luck rating in the top 50 to make a Final Four in the past five years, and only the third in the past 10 seasons.
This year’s luck club: Wofford (1), Maryland (2), Texas Southern (3), Oregon (4), North Dakota State (7), Harvard (9), Wyoming (21), Kansas (24), Lafayette (25).
Conference RPI
For all the posturing this time of year around which conference is best, there is relatively little correlation between conference RPI and tournament success. The only thing we can even remotely draw is that the very top conference in RPI during the regular season has performed consistently well in the tournament the past five years, going a combined 57-36 (.613) over that stretch. They have also placed a team in the Final Four in each of the past four years. The second-best conference has had a winning record in three of the last five years.
For what it’s worth, this year’s top conference was the Big XII.
Tempo
Tempo is a tricky metric. College basketball has, by and large, been getting slower the past few years. The average tempo rating of Final Four teams in the 13 years KenPom.com has been calculating it is 112, but in the past five years it has jumped to 188. Of the past 20 Final Four teams, 17 have rated 100th or slower, with nine of those at 200 or slower. But how slow is too slow?
Only three teams rated in the 300s (among the 52 slowest teams in the country) have ever made the Final Four, with last year’s Florida club (316) being the slowest. There are 11 teams in this year’s field rated 316 or slower, with major names like Wisconsin (347), Northern Iowa (348) and Virginia (349) among the very slowest.
Last year, Virginia (345) and Michigan (327) both made Elite Eight runs, each coming within a basket of the Final Four, while Syracuse (347) was upset by Dayton in the second round. So, is it safe to take a slow team to make a deep run? The trends are angling that way, but it would be unprecedented.
