By Steve Prinzivalli
We continue to monitor dangerous Hurricane “Matthew” as the powerful storm spins over the Caribbean this weekend and targets Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba with drenching rainfall that will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
As of 8 p.m. Eastern Time Saturday, the potent hurricane was located 360 miles south-southwest of Port Au Prince, Haiti with top sustained winds of 150 mph. This makes “Matthew” an intense Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale.
While the storm may fluctuate a bit in intensity, “Matthew” is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through Monday. The storm has barely budged Saturday evening but is forecast to crawl northwestward Saturday night and increase its speed Sunday, as it pounds Jamaica and Haiti. Hurricane warnings are posted for Jamaica and Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area by Monday with tropical-storm-force winds by Sunday night.
A hurricane watch is in effect for Haiti from east of Le Mole St. Nicholas to the northern
border with the Dominican Republic, as well as Cuba from Camaguey province to Guantánamo, province where hurricane conditions are possible by Monday night or Tuesday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible Monday.
“Matthew” will slam Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba with prolific rainfall of 15 to 25 inches with isolated amounts of 40 inches in southern Haiti. This will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall of one to four inches is expected for Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, northern Columbia and northwest Venezuela.
Winds far in excess of 100 mph will pound Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba while large swells will also cause a dangerous storm surge of two to 11 feet Monday and Tuesday.
The big weather wild card is: where does “Matthew” track next week and will we feel an impact in the WTOP listening area?
First, we look at several long-range computer models at NBC4, each of which integrates a variety of atmospheric data to produce a forecast solution, or “opinion” on the weather.
One such computer model — the American GFS computer model — is the most ominous for us, tracking Hurricane “Matthew” toward the Southeast U.S. Coast Friday and then up the mid-Atlantic Coast Saturday. If this occurs, we would deal with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding and storm surge Friday into next weekend.
However, other computer models paint a more optimistic solution for our area.
The U.S. Navy’s NOGAPS computer models tracks “Matthew” farther east and just offshore. This scenario would bring the immediate listening area showers and gusty winds Friday into Saturday.
The Canadian computer model from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) keeps the storm a few hundred miles farther east than the GFS’ dire prediction and is much faster in its movement of “Matthew” than the GFS solution. This would keep the area unscathed with no significant impact locally aside from dangerous rip currents at the Delmarva Beaches.
Similarly, the European computer model produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is similar to the CMC in keeping “Matthew” harmlessly offshore with little effect aside from the rough surf/rip current again.
This is just a sample of the conundrum we meteorologists can face in producing forecasts — differing solutions by our computer data can make it challenging to pinpoint a forecast, especially being nearly a week away from any impact from “Matthew.”
The majority of data we have analyzed keep “Matthew” offshore late next week so we are leaning toward the WTOP area staying generally dry Thursday and Friday but with some additional clouds and breezy conditions. This forecast will be adjusted and fine-tuned as we continue to peruse daily information from our variety of computer models that should become better-aligned in time.
The best advice is simply to stay tuned to both NBC4 and WTOP radio for frequent updates on the forecast track and impact of Hurricane “Matthew” throughout the next several days and plan accordingly. The good news is that, before any effects from the storm, we can enjoy the return of sunshine coming for everyone early next week.
