How predictive overall is the Presidents’ Trophy for postseason success? Breaking down past winners by what they did well and how far they advanced.
WASHINGTON — The Washington Capitals clinched the Presidents’ Trophy earlier this week, the honor of the best overall record in the NHL, based on points. Many on the team were understandably underwhelmed by the honor, though, given that it carries no guarantee of postseason success, as the Caps well know. They were hockey’s best regular season team in 2009-10 only to be bounced in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
But how predictive overall is the Presidents’ Trophy for postseason success? Not every great team is built alike, and it turns out that different components of regular season prosperity have correlated in various ways to playoff payoff. We studied how important a prominent goal-scorer, a prominent even-strength goal scorer, a prominent point-getter and a stingy goalie have been when it comes to predicting how well Presidents’ Trophy winners will succeed in the second season.
We also looked at overall point total to see if it made any difference just how dominant a team was in relation to the rest of the league. Flip through the slides to the right to see what we discovered.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Winning the President’s Trophy helps, but is no guarantee of success
Overall, there is very little correlation between finishing the regular season with the most points and winning the Stanley Cup. Of the 29 winners since the Presidents’ Trophy was introduced in 1986, only eight have won the Stanley Cup, with three others making the finals. Five times the team with the best overall record have been bounced in the first round, including the Caps in 2009-10.
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Total points don’t matter
The number of total points doesn’t seem to matter much. The Chicago Blackhawks were on pace for 131 points in the strike-shortened 2012-13 season when they won the cup, but other Presidents’ Trophy-winning Stanley Cup champions have finished with 115, 116, 118, 114, 112, 117 and 106 points. In fact, of the four Presidents Trophy winners that scored 120+ points, only one even made the finals, and didn’t win the cup.
(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
A great goalie is vital
No Presidents’ Trophy winner has won the cup without a primary goalie ranked in the top seven in the league in goals against average except Wayne Gretzky’s Oilers in 1987, on the back of his unthinkable offensive numbers. In fact, only three teams have won the Presidents’ Trophy without a top-seven goalie since 1989, with none of them making the finals.
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
AP Photo/Matt Slocum
Teams without top scorers rarely win
All eight President’s Trophy-winning Stanley Cup Champions have had a top-10 goal scorer except one — the 1999 Dallas Stars. Furthermore, of the 10 other Presidents’ Trophy winners that failed to have a top-10 scorer, none even advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals.
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Consistency across categories bodes well
Only six Presidents’ Trophy winners have had a player finish in the top 10 in each of the four categories we mentioned (leading goal scorer, leading even-strength goal scorer, leading point scorer, primary goalie’s GAA). Four of those six have won the cup, with the other two falling in the conference finals and finals.
(AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
AP Photo/Evan Vucci
The Caps set up better than in 2009-10
While Washington checked all the offensive boxes in 2009-10, they had the worst-rated primary goalkeeper by GAA of any Presidents’ Trophy winner to date. This year, the Caps have the league’s leading scorer in Alex Ovechkin (who is also tied for the league lead in even strength goals), its seventh-leading point scorer in Evgeny Kuznetsov and the fifth-best goaltender in goals against average in Braden Holtby. These components prove to be fairly strongly correlated with Presidents’ Trophy-winning teams that continue to shine in the postseason, especially when combined across the board.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Click to expand. Graphic by Noah Frank. Info courtesy Hockey-Reference.com. All numbers through March 30. Italics indicates strike-shortened season. All seasons listed by year in which Stanley Cup Finals was played.
