1. Before Game 4, we have to talk about Game 3.
I had a feeling we might see a night like Friday night. Honestly, I thought the Nats might get blown out. After Aníbal Sánchez started getting squeezed and gave up a run, it looked like the wheels might come off.
They didn’t, but the Nats couldn’t pull it together to rally and come back. Mostly, all the little things that broke Washington’s way in the first two games, didn’t this time.
Maybe you didn’t expect that. Once things are going well, it’s easy to think they’ll keep going that way. But the Astros needed Game 3 a lot more than the Nats did.
That said, Saturday suddenly becomes very, very important.
2. We talked before the series about the importance of Game 1. If there’s another swing game in a best-of-seven, it’s Game 4.
The reasons in this series are obvious. If the Nats win, they’re up 3-1 with three shots at a championship. Two of their top pitchers will be lined up for two of those shots, with all hands on deck for Game 7, if need be.
If they lose, all the work the Nats did in Houston is undone.
They’ll be facing the best team in baseball in a best-of-three series. The last two games will be on the road, and Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander will be looking for revenge.
3. Howie Kendrick needs to be in the starting lineup.
Asdrubal Cabrera acquitted himself just fine with a pair of hits Friday night (you can’t really blame him for the runners left on base unless you want to blame, well, everybody). Getting his bat in the lineup — with the historical success he’s had against Greinke — was totally understandable.
Kendrick is not just one of the best hitters in the lineup, he’s also had some of the biggest hits all postseason long.
And, yes, if Kendrick had been in the lineup for Game 3, it would have been him at bat with the bases loaded in the third inning, in his normal spot.
4. For the first — and likely only — time in the series, the Nationals will have a marked advantage in the starting pitching matchup.
A chunk of money that didn’t go to retaining Bryce Harper this offseason went to Patrick Corbin, who’s on his way to a Top 10 Cy Young finish. Meanwhile, Houston will start rookie José Urquidy after using every one of their top relievers Friday night. Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle got the night off.
Urquidy’s been effective — he didn’t allow more than a single run in any of his four September starts. But he also threw a total of 18 innings in those starts, never more than six in any one game. He’s started twice in the postseason, but hasn’t yet completed three innings.
Meanwhile, Corbin has struggled this postseason, pitching to a 6.91 ERA. He’s struck out 28, but also walked 10 in just 14.1 innings of work.
He’s also coming off an appearance out of the bullpen in Game 1. The Astros also mash lefties even a little more than they do righties.
Still, because of what looms — and because of the matchup — this is a game where the pressure shifts to the Nats, possibly for the first time all series.
