Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Read his ballots here.
The time everyone has been waiting for is finally here. There will be upsets as well as spectacular moments we’ll be talking about for years to come.
Am I referring to No. 13 Maryland’s win at No. 17 Michigan that evens up the Terps’ Big Ten road record at 5-5? Could I be thinking about Georgetown completing its first two-game sweep of Villanova in over 30 years? Or the anticipation of the CAA and Atlantic 10 Tournaments coming to D.C. this winter?
Not exactly … it’s time to breakdown the annual Girl Scout Cookie Rankings that have become a milestone (and to some a millstone) for those who have read the Beltway Basketball Beat over the years. Descriptions are from the Girl Scouts of America website and as always, these rankings are completely subjective and 100% accurate.
9. Lemon-Ups: “Naturally flavored crispy lemon cookies baked with inspiring messages to lift your spirits.” Every conference has to have a last-place finisher, from South Carolina in the SEC to Mississippi Valley State in the SWAC. The good news for Lemon-Ups is that Louisville went from consecutive last place finishes in the ACC to a Top 20 ranking this year. The bad news is Lemon-Ups doesn’t have that kind of recruiting class or transfer portal coming in this summer.
8. Girl Scout S’mores: “Crunchy graham sandwich cookies with creamy chocolate and marshmallowy filling.” From our sources (OK, it’s on the order form) WTOP has learned that this cookie will be retired after this March, much like La Salle head coach Fran Dunphy. While we like the Explorers and welcome victories by the school, one does not expect a deep March run. And while I like s’mores, they’re at their best when made outside on the campfire. At least s’mores wins the 8-9 game (in honor of former NC State coach Les Robinson). Happy retirement to both the cookie and the coach …
7. Toffee-tastic: “Gluten-free, rich, buttery cookies with sweet, crunchy toffee bits.” Like a roster that’s put together with the right idea but less than ideal execution, this is a winner if you have gluten sensitivities. But if you don’t, it’s a crumbly cookie that doesn’t hold together as well as you’d like and makes a quick exit. There’s always next year for a new gluten-free cookie to be recruited.
6. Trefoils: “Delicate-tasting shortbread that is delightfully simple and satisfying.” And with delicate, do we also mean unable to handle the physical play of the tournament? Many a school enters March playing like lions before exiting like lambs, and unfortunately while being fundamentally sound the Trefoil is not built for the athleticism and physicality of a single-elimination cookie competition.
5. Do-Si-Dos: “Crunchy oatmeal sandwich cookies with creamy peanut butter filling.” The physicality that Trefoils avoids is exactly what this cookie embraces. Tough on the perimeter and even tougher inside. Think the defensive efforts put forth by Maryland, George Mason, and VCU this winter. But unlike the Terps, Patriots, or Rams this winter, the Do-Si-Do’s 3-point shooting is hit-and-miss. And I’m thinking as we get deeper into March it’s more miss. Especially if you don’t have enough milk.
4. Tagalongs: “Crispy cookies layered with peanut butter and covered with a chocolaty coating.” It’s tough to repeat, as we’ve learned over the years. Tagalongs in this space and UConn on the court entered this winter having won consecutive titles behind a perfect blend. While each is capable of another deep run they haven’t gotten all of the right bounces or whistles. At least Tagalongs doesn’t get into it with referees or opposing fans.
3. Samoas: “Crisp cookies coated in caramel, sprinkled with toasted coconut and striped with dark chocolaty coating.” Matchups and styles take on a life of their own in March, as sometimes a complex offense or easy to disguise defense can be too much for an opponent to stomach. Especially on a tight turnaround that you deal with in a tournament setting.
2. Thin Mints: “Crisp wafers covered in chocolaty coating made with natural oil of peppermint.” Just like schools like Duke are engineered to be consistently competitive and routinely elite, the Thin Mint is the true blue blood of cookies that succeeds in the 20th century (I’ve compared Trefoils to Indiana)-even though it’s decidedly a different color. And this is an up-tempo cookie that can also come out of the freezer when necessary. But just like the Blue Devils have been bedeviled by North Carolina (in 2022) and NC State (last March), sometimes the better cookie on paper doesn’t always win.
1. Adventurefuls: “Indulgent brownie-inspired cookies topped with caramel flavored crème with a hint of sea salt.” The NCAA is always wary about new-money teams. Witness how they used to hand out probation like candy to the likes of Cleveland State and UNLV while allowing certain schools to “learn from their experience” for their transgressions. Adventurefuls broke into the scene a few years ago as an impressive cookie rookie, and similar to Auburn under Bruce Pearl represent something different from the hierarchy we’ve dealt with over the years (even though the Tigers made the 2019 Final Four). And just like American is an incredible blend offensive execution on the perimeter and in the post combined with a sticky defense that causes plenty of problems, the Adventureful is this year’s top cookie.
This week’s Starting Five:
Up Top: Auburn remains No. 1 overall and on my ballot, not only wrapping up the SEC regular season title but also winning at Rupp Arena for the first time since 1988. That goes back to the days of Sonny Smith and Eddie Sutton. Duke is No. 2, followed by Houston, Tennessee, Florida and St. John’s (I have the Gators-Red Storm-Vols on my bracket). Biggest variances from the consensus: I did not have No. 15 Missouri on my ballot and should have had them in the back end of my poll (20th or 21st); that one slipped through the cracks. I also had No. 12 Wisconsin 18th and No. 21 Saint Mary’s 15th. Tough omissions: Missouri, Missouri, Missouri. Small school shout-outs: VCU, Drake, High Point, UCSD.
Going Inside: American (20-12) reached 20 wins for the first time since 2014 (the last time they played in the NCAA Tournament) by rallying from 11 down at halftime to defeat Lafayette 71-69 in the Patriot League Quarterfinals Thursday night. Greg Jones might not be the Eagles usual first option but the sophomore forward led the way with 17 points while the team turned the Leopards over 14 times (leading to 18 points).
One of the keys to AU’s success this winter was their ability to defend, allowing the fewest points per game in the conference while ranking second in defending the 3-pointer.
“Last year we gave up a ton of points from the 3-point line. Teams were shooting 37-38 percent from three, they were making almost nine a game,” American head coach Duane Simpkins told me earlier this week. “We restructured our defense this summer to be more impactful on the ball, guard the ball better, and in particular guard 3-point line better. We wouldn’t help off drives and things like that, and it’s worked for us.”
The Eagles host No. 3 seed Colgate (14-18) Sunday in the semifinals. The Eagles swept the Raiders this winter for the first time since 2013 and after advancing to four straight NCAA Tournaments Colgate is having a rare off-year (first sub-. 500 regular season since 2017) but seniors Jeff Woodward (15 points per game on 64% shooting) and Nicolas Louis-Jacques have no intention of ending their careers in DC.
On the other side of the Patriot League Tournament bracket, Navy (14-18) kept its season alive with an 86-78 win at Boston University as Austin Benigni scored 30 points to help Coach Ed DeCellis’ team become the only road team in the first six games of the PL Tournament to post a victory. The Midshipmen visit No. 1 seed Bucknell (18-14) after the Bison disposed of Loyola-Maryland. The Mids were swept in the regular season series and their issues began with Patriot League Player of the Year Noah Williamson: the 7-foot center averaged 27 points and 10 rebounds in those two games. The Bison are also 11-3 in Lewisburg, PA this winter. Both Patriot League semifinal games are slated for Sunday afternoon: if American and Navy both win the Eagles will host the Midshipmen in the championship game next Wednesday.
Perimeter Play: The Atlantic 10 Tournament comes to D.C. next week with the top two spots already secured by local schools as VCU (25-5, 15-2 A-10) enters the weekend assured of the No. 1 seed while George Mason (23-7, 14-3) is locked into the No. 2 spot. The Rams dominated the league over the last two months, leading the conference in scoring, scoring defense, plus rebounding and turnover margins. They’re also the only school (although third place Dayton has returned to the bottom of the NCAA bubble) with legitimate at-large hopes, and for those curious the Flyers who beat UConn and Marquette when each school was in the Top Ten try for a regular season-split with VCU Friday night at the Siegel Center (Rams are 15-0 in that building this season).
The Patriots saw its slim at-large dreams fade with last Saturday’s loss at Duquesne but remain a whisker behind VCU in scoring defense and rebounding, while leading the A-10 in defending the 3-point line. Both receive the vaunted double bye next week at Capital One Arena, and while George Washington (20-11, 9-9) has to play on Thursday the Revolutionaries have reached 20 wins for the first time in eight seasons. Coach Chris Caputo’s team is also good at defending 3-pointers, ranking third in the conference behind the Patriots and Rams. GW will finish seventh or eighth, depending on how things shake out Saturday.
Richmond (10-20, 5-12) is locked into a 13th place finish and the dreaded first round Wednesday. As we’ve been highlighting 3-point proficiency here, the Spiders’ lack of offensive success (last in the A-10 in scoring) has been sparked (or one should probably say defused) by problems the perimeter (they rank 14th in the conference shooting 3-pointers. UR has also had problems defending 3-pointers, ranking an unlucky 13th.
Who’s Open: D.C. is double-booked again this March, with two conference tournaments taking up the next 10 days in the District. The fun begins Friday afternoon with Coastal Athletic Association Tournament tipping off at CareFirst Arena (formerly known as the Entertainment and Sports Arena).
This year’s “dreaded first round” features a pair of recent tournament winners in action: Delaware (2022) plays Stony Brook while Hofstra (2020) takes on North Carolina A&T. Towson (21-10, 16-2 CAA) won the regular season championship outright for the first time since joining the conference in 2001, and The Tigers are still looking for their first trip to the conference tournament championship game. UNC-Wilmington (24-7, 14-4) owns the No. 2 seed after leading the conference in shooting and scoring during the regular season, while No. 3 College of Charleston (23-8, 13-5) has won the last two tournaments and boasts big man Ande Brzovic (19 points with eight rebounds per game) as well as guard CJ Fulton (leads the CAA with 6.6 assists per game). Two other contenders have had their moments before late-season fades: William & Mary is the No. 4 seed but has lost three straight while No. 5 Campbell has dropped five in a row entering this weekend’s action.
Last Shot: Maryland (24-7, 13-6 Big Ten) wraps up the regular season by hosting Northwestern (17-13, 7-12). A win with a Michigan loss this weekend wraps up the No. 2 seed in while a loss could potentially drop the Terps to the fifth seed and out of the vaunted double-bye. Coach Chris Collins’ team makes you work for your points, ranking fourth in the Big Ten in scoring defense and third in turnover margin. They’ve also won three straight and five of seven against the Terrapins, including a potential soul-crushing 76-74 overtime defeat on January 16. But since that night Maryland is 10-2 while Northwestern has dropped eight of 13. And while the Terps will have to keep an eye on Nick Martinelli (20 points per game, 25 points plus the game-winning jumper in January), they won’t have to worry about the Wildcats’ second-leading scorer Brooks Barnhizer who is done for the year with a foot injury.
Saturday will also be a celebration of senior Julian Reese, who stuck with the program through a coaching change as well as last season’s disappointment. As a season of exceeded expectations wraps up, expect a robust crowd cheering on the big man from Baltimore one more time.
I’ll see you courtside.
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