At last, the 2023 NFL season has arrived.
Longtime WTOP.com readers know the drill by now, as I’ve been doing this annual NFL preview at WTOP for over a decade. But for those new to the game: I’ll go division by division and predict win-loss records for every team and explain the logic behind each prediction.
Just be aware there’s a really good chance you’ll read some things you may not like about your favorite team. If I’m wrong, enjoy your bragging rights. But if I’m right, be sure to give me my props.
Before delving into the predictions, here are some of the biggest factors affecting the 2023 NFL season (and, in turn, these predictions).
Can the Chiefs repeat?
This is where I point out (again) that the NFL hasn’t had a repeat champion since 2004. After the 2021 Buccaneers failed to pull it off despite unprecedented continuity, it’s starting to feel like an impossible feat. But then again, Patrick Mahomes routinely does the inconceivable so there’s a decent chance this is the last time I ask this question for a while.
Is there an NFC challenger outside Philly and San Fran?
Last year, we saw a ton of talent leave the NFC, and it only got worse in 2023 with All-Pro vets like Aaron Rodgers and Jalen Ramsey heading to the loaded AFC.
This could make things interesting in the standings, where I predict three AFC teams with records above .500 will miss the playoffs but no 12-game winners in the NFC. The results are … fascinating, to say the least — especially if you’re a Washington fan.
Will an entire division make the playoffs?
Thanks to the expanded playoff format instituted two years ago, this is a real possibility.
The entire NFC East finished .500 or better last season, and each of the four teams can make a legitimate case to make the playoffs in 2023. The AFC North and the AFC East can make a similar case and each division could see every team surpass .500.
As the AFC West showed us last year, at least one of these divisions won’t live up to the hype. Even still, don’t be surprised if we get our first division in NFL history to have every team win at least 10 games.
How much does a rest advantage mean in the NFL?
Thanks to this brilliant research by Warren Sharp, we’re about to find out in 2023.
Chicago has a ton of rest benefits (more on that later), leading the league in that category along with Washington and the New York Jets at 12 more days of rest than their opponents. But, while the Bears are considered much improved, virtually no one is taking them to win the NFC North.
Conversely, San Francisco has a league-worst 20 fewer days of rest than their opponents, and play four 1 p.m. games on the East Coast (heretofore lovingly referred to as the Dave Preston Corollary, for my colleague’s preoccupation with West Coast teams playing earlier than they’re used to). Yet they are the runaway favorite to win the NFC West.
As important as rest is, it’s not necessarily a hard and fast indicator of success. For example, last season Washington had a huge disadvantage going to Chicago on a Thursday night but won. A month later, they had a severe rest deficit heading to Philadelphia but won on a Monday night.
The best-coached teams find ways to use every advantage and overcome every obstacle. We’re about to find out if Kyle Shanahan really is a wizard and if Ron Rivera can finally lift Washington into the second round of the playoffs.
Ok, enough talk. Let’s roll up our sleeves and preview this season.
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
