Questions continue to swirl in D.C. about whether Mayor Muriel Bowser will seek a fourth term in office. Her recent public appearances have only added fuel to the speculation.
At the Fortune Most Powerful Women Summit on Wednesday, Bowser was asked directly about her political future. Her response, however, was cryptic:
“That’s a question that everybody seems to be asking, and I’ll answer it at the appropriate time,” Bowser said.
Just a day later, Bowser declined to speak with reporters at a Teacher of the Year event, breaking from her usual practice of holding press gaggles. Her staff was aware questions about her reelection plans were top of mind for the press.
Political analyst Julius Hobson, Jr., an adjunct professor at George Washington University, said the uncertainty is not unusual for politicians nearing the end of a term.
“There comes a time you wake up in the morning, and you say, ‘I don’t want to do this again,’” Hobson said.
Hobson said he initially believed Bowser would run again so she could be present for the opening of the new Washington Commanders stadium in 2030. The stadium deal is one of the most high-profile initiatives tied to Bowser’s tenure, and being there to cut the ribbon could be a defining moment in her mayoral legacy.
“I thought she would run just to be around for the finishing of the stadium,” Hobson said.
But, if she steps aside, Hobson said the race could open wide. “When you get that vacancy, you get a serious ‘y’all come’ — everybody’s running,” he said.
Axios reported that Council members Kenyan McDuffie and Janeese Lewis George are considering mayoral bids. Hobson believes McDuffie won’t run if Bowser stays in the race.
“Let’s just say if Bowser runs, McDuffie won’t,” Hobson said, adding that if McDuffie does intend to run, he’d first have to give up his seat, causing a “significant change in elected leadership.”
Hobson also said Bowser’s decision may be influenced by growing frustration among her constituents over federal interference in local governance.
“She’s got a constituency that is angry about the federal government stepping into the city’s business,” Hobson said.
A key signal to watch, Hobson said, is fundraising.
“What I tend to look for is fundraising. … How much money does she have in her political action committee in the bank? That’s always a good indication about whether or not somebody is going to run. Because if they got $2 in the bank, they’re not running,” Hobson said.
He said he’s also watching for other internal signals as potential clues to Bowser’s plans, such as who replaces longtime adviser Beverly Perry, who recently stepped down.
WTOP has reached out to both McDuffie and Lewis George for comment.
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