Are tornadoes coming in clusters? A meteorologist on climate change impacts

The D.C. region is seeing more “outbreak days” that can deliver not just one, but multiple tornadoes, and climate change is the driver of that pattern, according to a meteorologist with the nonprofit Climate Central.

Shel Winkley, Climate Central’s weather and climate engagement specialist, said that thanks to the warming climate, “We know that there are now more days that have those ingredients to create thunderstorms and to create severe weather than there were just, say, 50 years ago.”

“The traditional area where we typically find tornadoes, what we know as ‘Tornado Alley’ in the United States, that seems to be shifting further to the east,” he added.

And Winkley said that moving area is leading to more of the wet, stormy weather our region is seeing now.

“Outbreak days are the days that we see a big line of storms,” Winkley said.

When those move across an area, “we see numerous what we call ‘supercell thunderstorms’ that produce multiple tornadoes in a region,” he added.

With every forecast — including Monday’s forecast, which ended up overhyping the severe weather threat — there are lessons to learn. Schools, businesses and local governments closed early as a precaution based on the predictions, and that led to some griping about the predictions.

“When we look back at this event, we can look back at, ‘How do we communicate it? What were the graphics that were shared? How can we better prepare people for both timing and the types of weather that will be coming their way?'” Winkley said.

Even though weather forecasts can still turn out to be inaccurate, Winkley said modern climate science is vastly better than it was decades ago.

He said that 50 years ago, “A three-day forecast was OK; a five-day forecast was sketchy. Now, a five-day forecast is really good, a seven-day forecast is OK and a 10-day outlook gives you at least an idea. “

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