Historical Thanksgiving weather in the DC region shows a quiet pattern

Ahead of the holiday season’s unofficial kickoff next week, it’s worth remembering that the weather is super important for the extended Thanksgiving weekend with so many people on the highways.

Are there any early predictions for Thanksgiving Day weather, or any striking trends in the past 20 years for the late November holiday? While the D.C. region remains in a “deep freeze” late this week as the coldest air mass of the season lingers, the latest trend in Thanksgiving weather may surprise you.



Since the start of the 2000s, the coldest Thanksgiving morning occurred on Nov. 24, 2005, when Reagan National dipped to 25 degrees. The warmest Thanksgiving in recent memory came just two years later on Nov. 22, 2007, with a record high for the day of 75 degrees.

When the past 22 Thanksgivings are averaged, the morning temperature is 36 degrees with an afternoon high of 54 degrees. Not bad for a morning or afternoon of football with the family before the big meal.

A look at recent weather trends on Thanksgiving Day in the nation’s capital. (Courtesy NOAA)

If you are looking for more support from Mother Nature during that morning Turkey Trot or afternoon football game with the family before indulging in turkey and dressing, 16 of the past 22 years have either been dry or had a few sprinkles.

Only six recent Thanksgiving holidays have seen measurable rain — and yes, a trace of snow was recorded on Thanksgiving Day in 2010.

The forecast suggests the trouble spots leading up to the big holiday will include the Northwestern U.S. and northern Rockies early in the week, with a storm system providing rain and mountain snow. Meanwhile, heavy rain and severe weather are on the menu in the Mississippi Valley on Thanksgiving.

The upcoming weather pattern favors a return to above-average temperatures in the nation’s capital for Thanksgiving. It also will be increasingly cloudy, with rain holding off until after sunset on Thanksgiving Day or early Friday for the big shopping day.

Chad Merrill

Chad Merrill is a meteorologist and digital weather content producer for WTOP. Prior to joining WTOP, Chad was a meteorologist in the private industry and television. He loves to share his passion with listeners and readers and is eager to hear from anyone who has any weather questions!

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