Workweek weather: Warm, dry start before chance of showers

WASHINGTON — The new week starts under the influence of the same dome of high pressure that provided the D.C. area with Sunday’s spectacular weather.

This time, however, it will be offshore and southwesterly winds, and the surface and aloft will be pumping in some unseasonably warm temperatures, feeling almost like summer during Monday afternoon. High pressure over central Canada is also taking aim at us, pushing a cold front our way. That front will get here midweek, not until after we have another very warm afternoon on Tuesday. Then, the changes will start.

Likely just toward the end of the typical commute Tuesday evening, a line of showers and possible thunderstorms will be heading our way from the Ohio Valley along the cold front. The showers and storms will weaken and fall apart a bit before they get here, so we are not looking at a lot of soaking rain with this system. But it will slowly move through with its showers and a wind shift to out of the northwest Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and then just like that — it’s gone. Drier air and relatively cooler air will take over during the day Wednesday.

The cool-down will be modest. We’ll be heading back to closer to average temperatures the rest of the week. The front will attempt to return north as a warm front Thursday and Friday, but it may not make it all the way. An area of rain and cooler temperatures along that warm front will have to be watched to see if it will affect us on Friday, because that would also have a temperature impact.

All things considered, this looks like a very good week for outdoor plans, whether work or play: dry during the daytime, temperatures above average to average and no freezes at night.

The new week starts under the influence of the same dome of high pressure that provided the D.C. area with Sunday’s spectacular weather. (WTOP/Storm Team 4)

The American GFS model shows the trend for afternoon temperatures this week, relative to the movement of the cold front. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

We start out warm then cool down a bit. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

Storm Team 4 is forecasting actual temperatures to be higher than the computer model, which is warm enough given the time of year. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

There’s a very small chance the rain will end up farther north, keeping us cooler. But no matter what, Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest days of the week. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

Note the big temperature difference in the region on Friday. That’s because of the possible movement of a small area of rain. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

As mentioned, it will be a fairly dry week. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

The high resolution RPM computer model shows the potential for the showers with the cold front to already be knocking on the door Tuesday evening. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

Showers will hang scattered around until early Wednesday before departing by midday. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

A few lingering showers and drizzle are possible in the morning, though skies will be clear most of the day. It will be noticeably cooler than Tuesday, but closer to average for early April. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

The bulk of the precipitation this week will be in the middle of the country ahead of the cold front, where storms will be strong and possibly severe. We will see much lighter amounts along the front Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, likely only a few tenths. (Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

Lastly, the rainfall of the past two weeks has helped alleviate some of the drought situation, especially for the topsoil and brush. The most recent update in the U.S. Drought Monitor has upgraded most of us from “Severe Drought” to “Moderate Drought” and it’s mostly for “long-term” effects, such as groundwater and streamflow. We still could use a good 6-9 inches of rainfall to wipe out all the drought conditions that have been building up for the past two years. (Data: Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA. Graphics: Storm Team 4)

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Daily weather highlights

MONDAY

Abundant sunshine
Temperatures at least 10 degrees warmer than Sunday
Dry and very pleasant

TUESDAY

Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds
Very warm and breezy
Mostly dry, but showers may impact Nationals/Cardinals evening game
Turning a bit cooler at night

WEDNESDAY

A few lingering showers and drizzle possible in the morning
Clearing skies all day
Noticeably cooler than Tuesday, but just closer to averages for early April

THURSDAY

Mostly sunny skies
Seasonable and pleasant

FRIDAY

Mostly to partly sunny, high-level clouds
Seasonable and pleasant
Keeping an eye on small batch of rain just to the south

Editor’s Note: The WTOP Workweek Weather Blog is intended as an in-depth yet plain language summary of the business week’s weather potential in the D.C. area along with an explanation of the contingencies and uncertainties that exist at the time of publication. For the latest actual Storm Team 4 forecast, check out the main WTOP Weather Page.