WTOP's Noah Frank breaks down the key components of the last two NL East division champs to see where the advantages lie for each club heading into Opening Day.
WASHINGTON — Most experts expect the Nationals and Mets to battle it out for the 2016 NL East title. The Marlins could be a surprise contender, with Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez surrounded by a bunch of young talent, but we’ll give them a closer look if they’re able to turn that potential into wins.
Right now, let’s break down the key components of the last two NL East division champs to see where the advantages lie for each club heading into Opening Day.
(AP Photos)
AP Photos
Starting Rotations
Mets: Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
Nationals: Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross
Last season, many were pointing to Washington’s rotation as the best in baseball. This year, the Mets have claimed the unofficial title. But despite losing Jordan Zimmermann, Washington’s quintet of starters still rates among the best in the league. Few can compete with the sheer talent of Scherzer and Strasburg at the top, while Gonzalez ranked 10th in the NL in FIP last season, Ross put up a 3.14 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 16 games (13 starts) and Roark is just a year removed from a 15-win season.
But based on talent, the Mets are in a different class. With four hard-throwing righties capable of sub-3.00 ERAs and 200 strikeouts alongside the ageless Bartolo Colon, they should provide headaches all season for opponents if they can stay healthy.
Advantage: Mets
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
AP Photo/Julie Jacobson
Starting Lineups
Mets: C Travis d’Arnaud, 1B Lucas Duda, 2B Neil Walker, 3B David Wright, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, LF Michael Conforto, CF Yoenis Cespedes, RF Curtis Granderson
Nationals: C Wilson Ramos, 1B Ryan Zimmerman, 2B Daniel Murphy, 3B Anthony Rendon, SS Danny Espinosa, LF Jayson Werth, CF Ben Revere, RF Bryce Harper
Health will be key for both of these units. Will we see the old David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman, or will each continue to be plagued by chronic injuries? Anthony Rendon and Travis d’Arnaud — virtual offensive clones when healthy — could each be key middle-of-the-order cogs.
The Nationals actually finished third in the league in runs scored last season despite a bevy of injuries to Ramos, Rendon, Werth and Zimmerman. The Mets rallied from a dormant first half after the trade deadline to post the fourth-best team OPS+ in the NL. Both teams hit 177 home runs.
There’s good reason to believe Washington’s offense could well improve, but going position by position, the Mets seem stronger at four of them (C, 1B, LF CF) the Nats at one (RF), with three too close to call (2B, 3B, SS).
Advantage: Mets
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
AP Photo/David J. Phillip
Bullpens
Mets: RHP Jeurys Familia, LHP Addison Reed, RHP Hansel Robles, RHP Antonio Bastardo, LHP Jerry Blevins, RHP Jim Henderson, RHP Logan Verrett
Nationals: RHP Jonathan Papelbon, LHP Felipe Rivero, RHP Shawn Kelley, RHP Blake Treinen, LHP Oliver Perez, RHP Matt Belisle, RHP Yusmeiro Petit
The Mets will not get Jenrry Mejia back — ever — after the reliever became the first pitcher ever to receive a lifetime ban for PEDs. But they still have Jeurys Familia, coming off a tremendous season in which he locked down 43 saves and fanned better than a batter an inning with a sub-2.00 ERA. They lose Tyler Clippard to free agency, but have another former closer in Reed and get Blevins back from injury on the left side.
The Nationals, meanwhile, are full of question marks. Papelbon has to be better than what he showed after coming over at the trade deadline (13 runs, 4 home runs, 6.1 K/9 IP in 23.2 innings). Felipe Rivero throws gas from the left side, but is he ready to become a trusted set-up man, not just a specialist? Was Shawn Kelley’s career year a sign of a fundamental change, or a result of pitcher-friendly Petco Park? What is a truer indication of Matt Belisle’s effectiveness: his 2.67 ERA or his 1.46 WHIP?
Advantage: Mets
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Benches
Mets: OF Juan Lagares, OF Alejandro De Aza, IF Wilmer Flores, IF Eric Campbell, C Kevin Plawecki
Nationals: OF Michael Taylor, OF Chris Heisey, IF Clint Robinson, IF Stephen Drew, C Jose Lobaton
The Mets picked up key veterans Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to help fortify their bench for the second half of last season, but both are gone this year. Lagares provides a great defensive option, and Flores is better than Cabrera at short, but there is precious little offense in this unit overall.
The Nats have struggled to find consistent answers off the bench since their magical 2012 Goon Squad that seemed to do everything asked of it at just the right time. But this group — especially Taylor and Robinson — could prove to be essential pieces. Taylor is already Washington’s best defensive outfielder, and is coming off a torrid spring. If he can force his way into a starting spot in center field (especially if Werth/Zimmerman are hurt) and push Revere to the corner, Washington’s offense and defense could get a nice boost.
Advantage: Nationals
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)
AP Photo/John Minchillo
Reinforcements
Mets: SS Gavin Cecchini (AAA), 2B Dilson Herrera (AAA), RHP Zack Wheeler (DL)
Nationals: RHP Lucas Giolito (AA), SS Trea Turner (AAA)
New York graduated its top prospects — Michael Conforto, Stephen Matz and Noah Syndergaard – to the big leagues last year, leaving not much left ready to make an impact from the farm in 2016. Cecchini and Herrera look like the future up the middle, but both are still young and may not be ready to make an impact yet. Wheeler will likely rejoin the rotation once healthy, but hasn’t lived up to lofty expectations yet in his big league career.
Meanwhile, Washington has a pair of potentially huge upgrades biding their time, waiting for their opportunity. Giolito is perhaps the best arm in all the minor leagues, with a high-90s fastball and soul-crushing breaking ball, and Turner remains the heir apparent at shortstop. If Espinosa struggles, his time may come soon.
Advantage: Nationals
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Biggest Bats
Mets: CF Yoenis Cespedes
Nationals: RF Bryce Harper
No player had a bigger impact on last year’s pennant race than Cespedes. But his career numbers suggest a fairly healthy regression this season. If the 30-year-old matches his career averages, he’d go .271/.319/.486 with 26 homers. That would be very decent, but well off the .287/.337/.604 pace in which he hit 17 homers in just 57 games in Queens last year.
Harper, on the other hand, is coming off the best offensive season any big leaguer has posted since Barry Bonds. Still just 23, his expectations remain as lofty as ever, and it’s not inconceivable that he could even improve upon last year’s unanimous MVP season. Even if he just comes close to his 2015 production, he’ll be one of the best players in the game.
Advantage: Nationals
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
X-Factor
Mets: Lucas Duda
Nationals: Anthony Rendon
After it looked like he might leave, Duda is returning at first base for the Mets. Can he continue to be a 30-home run threat and get on base enough to bat in the fourth spot, providing protection for Yoenis Cespedes? The Mets have plenty of solid bats in the lineup, but none with Duda’s power potential to impact the middle of the order.
You could make the argument that the health of Jayson Werth or Wilson Ramos should be considered here, but neither can match Rendon’s potential in terms of overall impact. It’s hard to overstate the drop-off between Rendon’s 2014 (6.6 WAR, Silver Slugger, top-five MVP finish) and his injury-plagued 2015 (0.3 WAR, only 80 games played). With a shift back to his better defensive position at third base, a return to form could be key on both sides of the ball.
Advantage: Nationals
(AP Photo/John Raoux)
