This article was reprinted with permission from Virginia Mercury.
With four weeks to go before Virginia voters decide whether to redraw the state’s congressional map, early voting data is painting a familiar but uneasy picture for Democrats: they hold a commanding financial edge, but reliably Republican districts are showing up strong at the polls.
More than 354,000 ballots had been cast statewide as of Monday, according to data compiled by the Virginia Public Access Project, a steady acceleration since early voting began March 6 and continues through April 18.
The pace marks a sharp increase from the opening days of voting, when roughly 73,000 ballots had been cast by March 10 — a sign that engagement is picking up as the April 21 referendum draws closer.
But beneath those topline numbers, a deeper divide is emerging.
Early participation varies widely by region, with Republican-leaning areas generally posting higher turnout rates so far.
In some GOP strongholds, between 10 and 15% of registered voters have already cast ballots, outpacing many Democratic-leaning areas, particularly in Northern Virginia, where early voting infrastructure tends to ramp up later in the cycle.
At the congressional district level, the same pattern holds. Districts currently represented by Republicans are seeing stronger early turnout than those held by Democrats — an early signal of partisan intensity around a referendum that could reshape Virginia’s congressional delegation ahead of the 2026 midterms.
“I think the Democrats have to be worried,” longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth said. “They have a financial advantage, but the challenge the Democrats have here is that they don’t really have a face for their campaign.”
Local data underscores those disparities even more clearly.
Across Virginia, many of the highest-turnout jurisdictions so far are smaller, Republican-leaning counties in central and western parts of the state.
Mathews County, a strongly Republican-leaning locality on the Middle Peninsula where GOP candidates consistently get more than 60% of the vote in local, statewide and federal elections, has posted the highest early voting rate statewide, with roughly 16% of registered voters already casting ballots as of Monday.
Similar patterns are visible elsewhere, where GOP-leaning counties are exceeding statewide averages and outpacing more urban, Democratic-leaning jurisdictions.
By contrast, large Democratic strongholds — including Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties — have reported significantly lower early voting rates in the first weeks of balloting, often well under 5% of registered voters.
Taken together, the early returns suggest Republican-leaning areas are currently driving turnout, both in raw participation and as a share of registered voters, while Democratic-leaning regions have been slower to engage.
Democrats dominate fundraising, but lack a clear messenger
Holsworth said that while Democrats have built a well-funded operation, they lack a central, visible figure to rally voters.
“Who’s the face of the Democratic redistricting here that’s out there campaigning for it every day?” he asked. “They have an argument, but they don’t have a face for their argument who is the absolute champion.”
That dynamic is unfolding even as Democrats dominate the money race. Millions of dollars from national sources have flowed into pro-referendum efforts.
House Majority Forward, a progressive nonprofit, has contributed $15 million over the past six weeks to Virginians for Fair Elections, the most visible pro-redistricting group. The organization also received a $5 million donation from the Fund for Policy Reform Inc., a nonprofit affiliated with the Open Society Foundations network founded by Hungarian-American billionaire and philanthropist George Soros.
The Soros-linked contribution has angered Republicans, who have seized on it in their social media messaging.
“We don’t want any more Steve Descanos and Ramin Fatehis endangering our communities,” Del. Wren Williams, R-Patrick, said in a post on X, referencing two Virginia Democratic local prosecutors whose campaigns Soros supported.
Holsworth downplayed the political impact of the funding source itself.
“He’s funded some Democratic commonwealth’s attorney races that have been fairly successful, at least in the location,” Holsworth said of Soros. “But I don’t think the people who are voting in this are looking at how it’s being funded, for the most part.”
Instead, he said, the core challenge for Democrats remains turnout and persuasion.
“I think that the challenge the Democrats have is they have to mobilize their base, and they have to run halfway decently with independents here,” he said. “They certainly have a chance of winning.”
Spanberger’s shift and national context
That absence has stood in contrast to similar efforts in other states.
“The distinction with California is twofold. One, California is more Democratic, but secondly, California has an active, energetic champion for this,” Holsworth said, referring to the state’s governor, Gavin Newsom, who has been a de-factor spokesman of the redistricting push there.
While Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has voiced support for the amendment and backed it up by marking her referendum ballot “yes” last week, Holsworth said she has not taken on the same high-profile role.
“Governor Spanberger said she supports it and has become more supportive, but she’s not out there putting her political capital on the line for it every day,” he said.
Spanberger’s view on the issue has evolved.
On the campaign trail last August, she said she had “no plans” to pursue redistricting. But after casting an early “yes” vote in Henrico County on Friday — inviting the media to cover the moment — she framed her support as a response to national developments.
“I continue to support the 2020 redistricting amendment that set up a bipartisan commission,” Spanberger told reporters. “This amendment is temporary and responsive to this moment in time where we have a president who has gone to other states seeking additional congressional seats.”
The push for new maps follows a broader national movement that began after President Donald Trump urged Republican-led states to redraw their districts to strengthen their majority in the U.S. House. The effort began in Texas and has since spread, prompting both red and blue states to revisit their maps.
As Republicans have criticized Virginia’s proposal as a partisan maneuver, Spanberger pushed back.
“Had they spoken in opposition to those efforts, I would perhaps take their level of consternation with a bit more seriousness,” she said of similar moves in GOP-led states at Trump’s request.
Democrats have also leaned on national figures to help make their case.
Last week, the party sent mailers featuring former President Barack Obama urging Virginians to vote in favor of the amendment. Obama first publicly supported the effort in a video released earlier this month after the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to go forward.
“Virginia, we are counting on you,” Obama is quoted on the mailer. “Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. But you can stop them by voting yes by April 21.”
Holsworth said that the ad could provide a boost, but not a substitute for local leadership.
“That could help, but that’s not somebody who has been running in Virginia all the time,” he said of the former president. “Who is here, actively campaigning every day for the referendum out here? And that’s what you need in a campaign.”
Opposition ramps up as GOP base shows energy
Opponents of the referendum have mounted an aggressive campaign of their own.
One group deployed civil rights-themed mailers and messaging to argue the proposal would weaken protections against partisan gerrymandering, sparking a heated political fight over both the substance of the amendment and the tone of the campaign.
Recent electoral results suggest Republican voters may be particularly energized.
In a special election earlier this month to fill the Virginia Beach-area seat of the late Del. Barry Knight, Republican Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith with 62% of the vote, outperforming Knight’s margins in his last two elections by about five points.
The result has fueled Republican optimism heading into the referendum.
“If we could get some funds, we can win this redistricting fight in Virginia and secure the midterms for @POTUS,” Del. Karen Hamilton, R-Orange, wrote on X.
Elections analyst Sam Shirazi said the referendum has become a motivating issue for GOP voters.
“I think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up and they’re upset about the redistricting referendum,” Shirazi said on a recent episode of his “Federal Fallout” podcast. “At the end of the day anger is a very strong motivator to vote.”
He added that the dynamic reflects a broader pattern in Virginia politics.
“This is kind of a common thing we see in Virginia,” Shirazi said. “Republicans are upset and perhaps they are starting to organize, whereas last year they were a little bit asleep.”
Virginia Mercury reporter Charlotte Rene Woods contributed to this story.
