Virginians head to polls to decide fate of proposed new congressional districts

Virginia voters head to the polls Tuesday for a rare spring special election that will decide whether lawmakers can temporarily redraw the commonwealth’s congressional districts.

The ballot includes a single yes-or-no question asking whether the commonwealth’s constitution should be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional maps. A yes vote would grant lawmakers that authority, but would not automatically create new districts.

Democrats have argued the move is necessary, pointing to President Donald Trump’s calls for redistricting in Republican-controlled states, including Texas.

Republicans oppose the effort and are challenging it in court. The Virginia Supreme Court is not expected to rule on the plan’s legality until after the election. Any review would focus on the law and process, not the results of the vote itself.

“The pro messaging is very much, ‘Trump started this and Virginia is going to finish it,'” Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington, told WTOP.

“The anti-side is really looking at the dynamics of the likely result of the new district lines, a 10 to 1 Democratic advantage, and say, ‘That’s not consistent with where Virginia is. Virginia is a bluish-purple state, the theory goes, not the District of Columbia in its political loyalties.'”

Virginia currently has six Democrats and five Republicans in the U.S. House. Analysts say a new map approved under the amendment could favor Democrats, though final outcomes would still depend on district boundaries and election results.

Congressional districts are usually redrawn once a decade after the census. Under the proposal, any newly approved lines would apply only to the 2026, 2028 and 2030 elections.

“It started off in Texas, where the Trump White House gets the Republicans who control Texas to draw a map that could potentially pick up up to five more Congressional seats,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told WTOP. “I don’t know if the Republicans expected the Democrats to kind of take action against it, but we saw something on the Democratic side in California.”

Last year, California Democrats successfully pursued what Coleman described as “what Democrats in Virginia are trying to do right now.”

Virginia last used an independent commission to draw its congressional map. This proposed amendment would allow lawmakers to bypass that process for a limited time.

A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found 52% of voters support moving forward with a new map, but Farnsworth said turnout could be an issue.

“People are not used to voting in the spring in a lot of places,” Farnsworth said. “In Virginia, the issue is confusing, and it’s much easier, I think, for voters to focus on candidates. ‘Do you like this candidate? Do you dislike this candidate?’ Rather than constitutional issues.”

The issue has drawn prominent political figures to Virginia, including House Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Barack Obama, with the goal of getting voters to turn out.

Some political candidates, including Del. Dan Helmer and Dorothy McAuliffe, have already announced plans to run for one of the newly-drawn districts, should voters approve the amendment and it survives legal challenges.

Coleman said supporters view the effort as states balancing partisan gains elsewhere, or “canceling each other out.”

“That’s one argument that the proponents of this are making, is ‘OK, well, California may have already taken care of Texas, but if Florida comes around and does something to the benefit of the Republicans, we need to do something here in Virginia,'” Coleman said.

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