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Voters across Virginia will be choosing candidates in U.S. House races in next week’s June 18 primary election, and the most competitive contests will play out in Northern Virginia.
The most closely watched race is in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, which includes parts of Prince William, Stafford, Spotsylvania and Culpeper counties.
Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger holds that seat in the House, but she is stepping away to run for governor next year.
There are seven candidates in the Democratic primary, and six candidates are running on the Republican side.
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“This is a very wide field,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, a political expert who analyzes and predicts elections around the country through his website, CNalysis.
Even though Spanberger is a Democrat, the 7th district is considered to be a competitive seat for the general election in November, meaning both parties think they have a shot at it.
In the Democratic primary, Nuttycombe said he believes Eugene Vindman has the best chance of winning.
Vindman and his twin brother, Alex, were career military officers who gained a measure of fame and respect from Democrats for raising concerns about Trump’s 2019 call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in which Trump sought an investigation of Biden and his son Hunter.
Their concerns ultimately contributed to Trump’s impeachment.
“Vindman just has so much money,” said Nuttycombe. “I’m hard-pressed to think that he doesn’t come out on top.”
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, Vindman has raised more than $5 million so far in his campaign, which is a staggering amount compared to everyone else in the race.
No other candidate has raised more than $400,000.
Vindman’s main opposition in the primary, according to Nuttycombe, will be state Del. Briana Sewell and former state Del. Elizabeth Guzman.
Spanberger has not endorsed anyone.
On the Republican side, Nuttycombe said he thinks Derrick Anderson, a former Army Green Beret, will likely win.
“He’s run a pretty good campaign financially and he’s got name recognition,” said Nuttycombe, adding that he thinks it’s a 60% or 70% chance that the nominees at the end of the day will be Vindman and Anderson.
The other closely watched primary will be in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, which includes Loudoun County, Manassas and parts of Prince William and Fairfax counties.
There are 12 Democrats running to replace Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton, who is leaving the job due to health issues.
“It’s crazy how many people are running in this thing,” Nuttycombe said. “I think the winner of this primary will probably only get 20% or 30% of the vote, most likely.”
Nuttycombe said he thinks the primary will come down to two of the candidates — Del. Dan Helmer and state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam.
Wexton has endorsed Subramanyam.
Another candidate who may be competitive is former Speaker of the Virginia House Eileen Filler-Corn, who has the endorsement of former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam.
Virginia’s 10th is considered to be heavily Democratic for the general election in November, although there are four Republicans running in next week’s primary.
Other races on the ballot include Democratic primaries for Alexandria mayor, Alexandria City Council, Arlington County Board and a Republican primary for U.S. Senate, with the winner facing Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine in November.
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