AAA is forecasting a record 45 million-plus people will travel Memorial Day weekend. For those travelers driving to their destination, they’ll find much lower gas prices.
Nationwide and locally, gas prices are dropping. The price of gasoline is closely tied to the price of oil, and oil is a bargain compared to a year ago, when a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude was $78.66. On Wednesday, that same barrel was trading at $62.62 — a more than 21% decrease — even as domestic oil production is now constantly above a record 13 million barrels per day.
Oil industry analyst Tom Kloza said it’s a combination of increased domestic production; more supply from OPEC+ nations and a balancing of supply and demand that’s been months in the making.
“We’re about 40 to 45 cents lower than we were in 2024,” Kloza said.
He is also forecasting even lower prices for the country this fall and winter, provided there is not a major Gulf Coast hurricane that disrupts production.
“Probably after the summer, there is going to be too much gasoline. It is going to be unwanted hydrocarbon.”
According to AAA, Maryland’s average price for gasoline is $3.08, Virginia’s average is $3.01 and D.C.’s is $3.20. The national average is $3.18.
The gasoline technology company GasBuddy is forecasting lower prices next week with the national average closer to $3.10 a gallon in its survey. That would be well below the average of $3.58 last Memorial Day. It’s also sharply lower than in 2022, when gas prices on Memorial Day stood at $4.60 a gallon
Oil industry analyst Phil Flynn told WTOP that highways will be packed with motorists this long holiday weekend, traveling in part because of the lower prices.
“If the weather does cooperate and changes a bit for the weekend, we should be breaking records for the holiday travel situation. Probably the best we’ve seen in many years,” he said. “If you look at the price of gasoline and you adjust it for inflation, we’re going to see the lowest gasoline prices for Memorial Day in 20 years.”
Flynn said prices are falling because domestic production remains at record levels, and other oil-rich nations are producing more oil, even at a time when worldwide demand is flat.
AAA projects 45.1 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Memorial Day holiday period, from Thursday to Monday — an increase of 1.4 million travelers from 2024 and a new Memorial Day weekend record.
“Memorial Day weekend getaways don’t have to be extravagant and costly,” AAA’s Vice President of Travel Stacey Barber said. “While some travelers embark on dream vacations and fly hundreds of miles across the country, many families just pack up the car and drive to the beach or take a road trip to visit friends. Long holiday weekends are ideal for travel because many people have an extra day off work and students are off from school.”
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