By Week 15, the margins get thin in fantasy football and every lineup choice carries playoff weight.
Matchups sharpen, roles stabilize and small edges can swing entire seasons.
These are the plays and fades you need this week.
Quarterbacks
Start: Brock Purdy, 49ers vs. Titans
Purdy draws one of the most favorable quarterback matchups of Week 15. Tennessee’s coverage unit has struggled to contain layered route concepts and timing-based passing game — exactly the structure of San Francisco’s offense. With the 49ers’ run game forcing defensive overcommitment and Purdy excelling in rhythm throws, the Titans’ inability to generate consistent pressure creates a clean environment for efficient, high-value production. Purdy carries legitimate QB1 upside this week.
Other locks:
— Joe Burrow vs. Ravens
— C.J. Stroud vs. Cardinals
— Lamar Jackson vs. Bengals
Avoid: Jacoby Brissett, Cardinals vs. Texans
Brissett faces a nightmare matchup against a Texans defense that wins up front and compresses throwing windows. With Arizona unlikely to sustain drives and Brissett lacking mobility to escape Houston’s interior pressure, his floor is low. There’s no ceiling case here — he’s an avoid across all formats.
Running backs
Start: Tony Pollard, Titans vs. 49ers
Pollard steps into a high-usage role coming off the best performance of his career in Week 14. The 49ers’ defense, while stout on early downs, has consistently leaked explosive plays to backs who win in space and through the air. Pollard’s route involvement has climbed, and Tennessee increasingly funnels touches through him when trailing — a likely script here. His combined rushing and receiving outlook gives him RB2 stability with RB1 breakout potential.
Other locks:
— Bijan Robinson vs. Buccaneers
— Kenneth Walker III vs. Colts
— Travis Etienne vs. Jets
Avoid: Breece Hall vs. Jaguars
Hall’s talent is undeniable, but this matchup is brutal. Jacksonville has been suffocating against running backs, allowing minimal yards after contact and erasing checkdown production with disciplined linebacker play. Hall’s fantasy value has already become volatile behind a struggling Jets offense, and the Jaguars’ front is exactly the type that turns his explosive-play dependency into a liability. With scoring opportunities scarce and efficiency projecting poorly, Hall is a strong sit in Week 15.
Wide receivers
Start: Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Commanders
Robinson draws one of the most favorable matchups of Week 15 against a Washington defense that has struggled all season to contain slot receivers and short-area separators. With the Giants leaning heavily on quick-game concepts to stabilize their offense, Robinson has become their most reliable chain-mover and yards-after-catch threat. Washington’s linebackers consistently allow free access underneath, giving Robinson a strong floor in PPR formats with real spike-week potential if the Giants push tempo. He enters Week 15 as a high-volume WR3 with WR2 upside.
Other locks:
— Nico Collins vs. Cardinals
— Puka Nacua vs. Lions
— Jaylen Waddle vs. Steelers
Avoid: DJ Moore, Bears vs. Browns
Moore struggled last week, in the exact situation he should’ve thrived in, as Rome Odunze was out with an injury. Cleveland has been one of the league’s stingiest defenses against perimeter receivers, eliminating explosive plays and forcing quarterbacks into low-percentage throws outside the numbers. Moore’s production hinges on efficiency and big-play creation — two things the Browns specifically take away. With Chicago likely facing pressure and Moore drawing the highest level of defensive attention, he becomes a risky Week 15 option with a suppressed ceiling. He’s a fade this week.
Tight ends
Start: Jake Ferguson vs. Vikings
Ferguson is one of the safest high-usage TE1 plays of the week. Minnesota has been consistently vulnerable to tight ends who win on option routes and seam-breakers. Quarterback Dak Prescott trusts Ferguson in key moments and scoring areas, and Sunday night’s game script should push Dallas to lean heavily on its short and intermediate passing layers.
Ferguson’s combination of volume, red zone usage and matchup makes him a top-tier TE start.
Other locks:
— Harold Fannin Jr. vs. Bears
— Juwan Johnson vs. Panthers
— Brenton Strange vs. Jets
Avoid: Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Bills
Henry has been a revelation this season, but the Bills match up well with tight ends who operate primarily in the short middle. With New England favoring perimeter and running game approaches in matchup-tight situations, Henry’s path to fantasy relevance is narrow. Low target share and a stingy matchup and inclement weather equal an easy Week 15 avoid.
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