The starts may not look like locks at first, but they should come through in Week 13. Conversely, I’ve included some players who might otherwise seem like safe plays to avoid as well.
Quarterbacks
Start: Sam Darnold, Vikings vs Cardinals
Darnold had a rough patch a few weeks ago, but he’s back in good form, putting up five combined TDs in his past two games. Even against the Bears top-notch pass defense last week, Darnold threw for a season-high 330 yards to go along with his two scores. His opponent this week, the Cardinals, have a decent secondary, but they pale in comparison to Chicago’s.
Other locks:
—Jalen Hurts at Ravens
—Baker Mayfield at Panthers
—CJ Stroud at Jaguars
—Justin Herbert at Falcons
Avoid: Jared Goff, Lions vs Bears
Goff doesn’t force the ball through the air if he doesn’t have to and he would be remiss to do so against a top rated Bears secondary that will be looking to vindicate themselves after giving up some big plays to Sam Darnold last week. He’s also got the best 1 and 2 punch in football in his backfield. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are a force and they’ll likely have a much easier time finding holes in Chicago’s run defense than Goff will in the passing game.
Running backs
Start: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs Buccaneers
Hubbard fantasy owners were anxious last week, upon hearing the news that rookie running back Jonathon Brooks would be seeing his first game action this season. Fears were assuaged when Brooks only got two carries the entire game for 7 yards. Brooks’ carries could increase as he gets more comfortable in the offense, but Hubbard should have at least one more week as the starter in Carolina. It will come against a Buccaneers run defense that is a top-10 matchup for opposing runners in Week 13.
Other locks:
—Bucky Irving at Panthers
—Jonathan Taylor at Patriots
—Josh Jacobs vs Dolphins
—Tyrone Tracy Jr., at Cowboys
Avoid: James Conner, Cardinals at Vikings
The Week 11 bye didn’t do Conner any favors as he only ran for 8 yards on seven carries in his Week 12 return. He was able to salvage his day through the air, catching five passes for 41 yards, but it was an underwhelming game from a fantasy perspective against the Seattle run defense. He’ll face a Vikings defense that ranks as a top-two run stopper going into Week 13 — Conner only gained 25 combined yards against Detroit’s top-three run defense in Week 2. Trey Benson is also gaining steam in the Arizona offense. It’s best to fade Conner this week, if you have that luxury.
Wide receivers
Start: DJ Moore, Bears at Lions
Moore is finally starting to make waves again in fantasy, after slumping from Weeks 6 to 10. He’s had his best two-game stint of the season thus far in Weeks 11 and 12 though, going for a season-high 119 combined yards and a score in the latter game. New offensive coordinator Thomas Jones has sparked the offense and Moore has been a prime beneficiary. The Bears will have fits trying to run at the Lions’ stout run defense, so they could attack them through the air. Moore is a prime contender to keep up his recent run in Week 13.
Other locks:
—Ladd McConkey at Falcons
—Puka Nacua at Saints
—Jaxon Smith-Njigba at Jets
—Jakobi Meyers at Chiefs
Avoid: Quentin Johnston, Chargers vs Ravens
Johnston is the definition of boom or bust, either scoring double-digit fantasy points or gaining fewer than 25 yards in nearly every game he’s appeared in this season. On “Monday Night Football,” he had zero catches on five targets. Johnston has a great matchup this week, but there’s no guarantee he’ll capitalize on it. Johnston is anything but a lock this week.
Tight ends
Start: Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys vs Giants
Schoonmaker had three catches for 55 yards and a score against Washington in a thrilling game. Schoonmaker provided another dependable option to QB Cooper Rush. Jake Ferguson is still in concussion protocol and it’s a short week as Dallas is playing on Thanksgiving, so Schoonmaker is likely to start once again. With CeeDee Lamb nursing nagging injuries as well, look for Rush to lean heavily on Schoonmaker this week.
Other locks:
—Jonnu Smith at Packers
—Trey McBride at Vikings
—Taysom Hill vs Rams
—Dallas Goedert at Ravens
Avoid: Sam LaPorta, Lions vs Bears
LaPorta just can’t find any consistency in the Detroit offense, going weeks between decent fantasy outings at times. He had just three catches for 19 yards in Week 12 after missing Week 11 with a shoulder injury and things aren’t looking up for him this week as the Lions are playing a stalwart Chicago defense on short rest. Look for the Lions to go run heavy this week, taking the onus off LaPorta and the rest of the Lions receiving group.
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