A superfood scare: Are avocados, almonds in danger due to drought?

In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almonds are seen on growing in an  almond orchard belonging to farmer Bob Weimer, near Atwater, Calif.  As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almonds are seen on growing in an almond orchard belonging to farmer Bob Weimer, near Atwater, California. As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almond grower Bob Weimer poses in his almond orchard near Atwater, Calif.  As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almond grower Bob Weimer poses in his almond orchard near Atwater, California. As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
File - In this Oct. 2, 2009, file photo, a dead almond crop is seen in California's Westland Water District in Fresno, Calif. NASA scientists have begun deploying satellites and other advanced technology to help California water officials assess the state's record drought and better manage it, officials said Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2014. California's relationship with NASA began shortly after the dry year of 2009, when officials sought answers to problems exacerbated by the lack of rain and snow, such as the sinking land. (AP Photo/Russel A. Daniels, File)
In this Oct. 2, 2009, file photo, a dead almond crop is seen in California’s Westland Water District in Fresno, California. NASA scientists have begun deploying satellites and other advanced technology to help California water officials assess the state’s record drought and better manage it, officials said Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2014. California’s relationship with NASA began shortly after the dry year of 2009, when officials sought answers to problems exacerbated by the lack of rain and snow, such as the sinking land. (AP Photo/Russel A. Daniels, File)
In this photo taken Friday March 27, 2015, low-flow water emitter sits on some of the dry, cracked ground of farmer Rudy Mussi's  almond orchard in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta near Stockton, Calif.  As California enters the fourth year of drought, huge amounts of water are mysteriously vanishing from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and farmers whose families for generations have tilled fertile soil there are the prime suspects.  Delta farmers deny they are stealing water, still, they have been asked to report how much water they’re pumping and to prove their legal right. Mussi says he has senior water rights in a system more than a century old that puts him in line ahead of those with lower ranking, or junior, water rights.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this photo taken Friday March 27, 2015, low-flow water emitter sits on some of the dry, cracked ground of farmer Rudy Mussi’s almond orchard in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta near Stockton, California. As California enters the fourth year of drought, huge amounts of water are mysteriously vanishing from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and farmers whose families for generations have tilled fertile soil there are the prime suspects. Delta farmers deny they are stealing water, still, they have been asked to report how much water they’re pumping and to prove their legal right. Mussi says he has senior water rights in a system more than a century old that puts him in line ahead of those with lower ranking, or junior, water rights. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Thursday, April 9, 2015 photo, a worker stocks up on almonds packaged as originating from the United States at a supermarket in Beijing.  Last year almond orchards consumed more of California’s vanishing water than the indoor use of all 39 million California residents combined. As California enters its fourth year of drought, and imposes the first mandatory statewide water cutbacks on cities and towns, the $6.5 billion almond crop is helping drive a sharp debate about water use, agricultural interests and how both affect the state’s giant economy. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
In this Thursday, April 9, 2015 photo, a worker stocks up on almonds packaged as originating from the United States at a supermarket in Beijing. Last year, almond orchards consumed more of California’’s vanishing water than the indoor use of all 39 million California residents combined. As California enters its fourth year of drought, and imposes the first mandatory statewide water cutbacks on cities and towns, the $6.5 billion almond crop is helping drive a sharp debate about water use, agricultural interests and how both affect the state’’s giant economy. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
In this Jan. 18, 2013 photo, David Schwabauer, managing partner of Leavens Ranches, holds his hand over an irrigation sprinkler, next to one of his lemon and avocado trees in Moorpark, Calif. In the background is one of his pumps that is pulling water from an underground well. For years Schwabauer has watched groundwater levels retreat with higher demand from encroaching development, forcing ranchers and farmers to sink piping deeper into the earth or drill expensive, new wells for irrigation. In the heat of summer, he pumps 3,000 gallons a minute for his thirsty trees. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
In this Jan. 18, 2013 photo, David Schwabauer, managing partner of Leavens Ranches, holds his hand over an irrigation sprinkler, next to one of his lemon and avocado trees in Moorpark, California. In the background is one of his pumps that is pulling water from an underground well. For years, Schwabauer has watched groundwater levels retreat with higher demand from encroaching development, forcing ranchers and farmers to sink piping deeper into the earth or drill expensive, new wells for irrigation. In the heat of summer, he pumps 3,000 gallons a minute for his thirsty trees. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
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In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almonds are seen on growing in an  almond orchard belonging to farmer Bob Weimer, near Atwater, Calif.  As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Tuesday March 31, 2015 photo, almond grower Bob Weimer poses in his almond orchard near Atwater, Calif.  As California cities and towns move to mandatory water cutbacks in the fourth year of extreme drought, the state’s $6.5 billion almond crop has claimed the spotlight as “the poster child of all things bad in water” in the country’s top agriculture state. At 1 gallon per almond, California’s almond crop is now consuming about 10 percent of all the water that Californians are using in the drought. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
File - In this Oct. 2, 2009, file photo, a dead almond crop is seen in California's Westland Water District in Fresno, Calif. NASA scientists have begun deploying satellites and other advanced technology to help California water officials assess the state's record drought and better manage it, officials said Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2014. California's relationship with NASA began shortly after the dry year of 2009, when officials sought answers to problems exacerbated by the lack of rain and snow, such as the sinking land. (AP Photo/Russel A. Daniels, File)
In this photo taken Friday March 27, 2015, low-flow water emitter sits on some of the dry, cracked ground of farmer Rudy Mussi's  almond orchard in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta near Stockton, Calif.  As California enters the fourth year of drought, huge amounts of water are mysteriously vanishing from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, and farmers whose families for generations have tilled fertile soil there are the prime suspects.  Delta farmers deny they are stealing water, still, they have been asked to report how much water they’re pumping and to prove their legal right. Mussi says he has senior water rights in a system more than a century old that puts him in line ahead of those with lower ranking, or junior, water rights.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)
In this Thursday, April 9, 2015 photo, a worker stocks up on almonds packaged as originating from the United States at a supermarket in Beijing.  Last year almond orchards consumed more of California’s vanishing water than the indoor use of all 39 million California residents combined. As California enters its fourth year of drought, and imposes the first mandatory statewide water cutbacks on cities and towns, the $6.5 billion almond crop is helping drive a sharp debate about water use, agricultural interests and how both affect the state’s giant economy. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
In this Jan. 18, 2013 photo, David Schwabauer, managing partner of Leavens Ranches, holds his hand over an irrigation sprinkler, next to one of his lemon and avocado trees in Moorpark, Calif. In the background is one of his pumps that is pulling water from an underground well. For years Schwabauer has watched groundwater levels retreat with higher demand from encroaching development, forcing ranchers and farmers to sink piping deeper into the earth or drill expensive, new wells for irrigation. In the heat of summer, he pumps 3,000 gallons a minute for his thirsty trees. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

WASHINGTON — Almonds and avocados routinely top lists of “best superfoods” and are superstars at the grocery store. But that could soon change, as the ongoing drought in California threatens the availability of the two popular foods.

The end result may have an impact on your cupboards and your diet.

It’s difficult to scroll through Instagram, peruse Pinterest or browse blogs without seeing a post that features avocados. The fruit (yes, avocados are a fruit) is trendy, and the avocado’s rise to stardom has a lot to do with recent research.

Joy Dubost, a registered dietitian and food scientist in the D.C. area, says science in the ‘80s and ‘90s advised people to limit or avoid fat in their diets. The low-fat foods that hit store shelves in response to the advice were high in carbohydrates, preservatives and additives, which, ironically, left Americans fatter.

In the last decade, however, emerging research has disproved earlier claims, finding that some fats are actually beneficial to health.

“What we found is that the fats that are contained in nuts, particularly almonds, as well as avocados, really are great for protecting your heart. And so no longer do we advise people to avoid these types of products or worry about the fat content,” Dubost says. “Because we know that those types of healthy fats – the mono-unsaturated, the poly-unsaturated fatty acids – are actually protective.”

In fact, recent studies have shown that eating nuts decreases mortality rates by 20 percent, and that daily nut consumption is associated with a decreased risk in heart disease. Almonds and avocados also supply a number of nutrients to the body, such as vitamin E, vitamin C, magnesium and calcium.

In addition to research, Dubost credits the restaurant industry with elevating the avocado. She says interest in the avocado spiked when restaurants started preparing guacamole tableside for customers.

“People really liked that; they like to get involved in the preparation of their food,” she says.

Prepared in person or not, guacamole was the gateway to America’s avocado obsession. In 1999, Americans consumed 1.1 pounds of guacamole per capita. In 2014, that amount rose to 5.8 pounds, New York Magazine reports.

Almonds have seen a similar increase in demand. The global population is eating over 1,000 percent more almonds than they did a decade ago, the Associated Press reports. And sales of almond milk in the U.S., a $738 million business, increased 46 percent in 2014.

But the explosion in almond and avocado consumption could soon slow, and California’s climate is the culprit.

The drought’s impact on food production

The Golden State is responsible for producing 82 percent of the world’s almond supply, the LA Times reports, and more than 80 percent of avocados grown in the U.S. come from California. However, just like all food, both avocados and almonds require water to grow – something that’s increasingly scarce in California, thanks to multi-year high temperatures and little rainfall.

On average, it takes about a gallon of water to grow one almond; it takes about 72 gallons of water to grow a pound of avocados. Those numbers may sound like a lot, but other commodities, such as beef, dairy, alfalfa and chickpeas, require even more. California’s drought is even threatening the availability of sushi, due to a drop in the state’s rice crop.

So why are almonds and avocados at the center of the drought’s controversy? It’s because of their popularity. When a recent Chipotle report mentioned that increased prices caused by changes in climate conditions could one day lead to a suspension of the chain’s sales of guacamole, the world started paying attention to the climate’s effect on food.

“Having only just recently become a tattoo-worthy symbol of foodie obsessiveness, the avocado could become the symbol of a pre-climate-change era, when we could reasonably expect anything, from anywhere, at any time, to appear on our dinner plate,” reporter Adam Sternbergh writes in New York Magazine.

From the farm to the fridge

Will California’s drought trickle down and affect food prices? The answer is up for debate.

Some experts predict that produce will see the greatest price increase as a result of the drought; others predict almond prices are more likely to spike. Still others believe that steady production from countries such as Mexico and Chile will help keep costs from rising.

However, the Wall Street Journal reports the rising cost of water in California will likely increase the cost of production over time, and that slight increase will eventually make its way to the grocery store shelves.

If that happens, registered dietitian Dubost has some advice for finding sources that offer nutritional benefits similar to almonds and avocados – but nothing will fully replace these foods.

“All foods are unique, and that’s why registered dietitians also talk about balance and moderation, as boring as that may sound,” she says. “Each food has its own components that are essential to the diet, in the case of almonds and avocados; they have very unique nutrition profiles.”

However, Dubost says other nuts, such as walnuts and pistachios, supply protein and essential vitamins and minerals. And think outside the shell: Many nut butters contain the same nutritional qualities as their whole counterparts. Just be wary of added sugars.

“That can hike up the calories, with little nutrition coming in from the sugar,” Dubost says.

Avocados are a little more unique, especially from a cuisine standpoint, since many cooks use them for their creamy, butter-like texture. However, qualities from avocado’s good fats are present in a variety of cooking oils, such as canola oil, safflower oil, sunflower oil and olive oil.

“Those will give you the mix of the fatty acid profiles along with the vitamin E,” she says.

The overall message, she says: Continue to eat a variety of fruits, vegetables, proteins and natural sources of poly-unsaturated the mono-unsaturated fats, while limiting your saturated fat intake.

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