Oscar predictions: Expect an explosive night for Christopher Nolan’s ‘Oppenheimer’

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WTOP's Jason Fraley predicts the Oscars live on WTOP

Oscar predictions: Expect an explosive night for ‘Oppenheimer’

It’s been a fun week of movie memories and Hollywood trends in my daily Oscar series on WTOP.

On Monday, we asked whether “Oppenheimer” marks the return of the blockbuster Best Picture.

On Tuesday, we tallied the stats of the winningest movies to compile the Oscar Mount Rushmore.

On Wednesday, we griped and complained about some glaring snubs made by the Academy.

And on Thursday, I selected which movies actually should have won Best Picture every year.

Now, it’s finally time to make predictions for this year’s ceremony.

Who will win the major categories on Sunday night? Check out my official predictions below!

Best Picture

Nominees: “American Fiction”; “Anatomy of a Fall”; “Barbie”; “The Holdovers”; “Killers of the Flower Moon”; “Maestro”; “Oppenheimer”; “Past Lives”; “Poor Things”; “The Zone of Interest”

Analysis: After sweeping the top prize at every major award show thus far, “Oppenheimer” is a lock-in for Best Picture. While the inevitable result is rather predictable, the outcome is far from boring as “Oppenheimer” would become the first Top 5 domestic blockbuster to win Best Picture in 20 years since “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.” What a great thing that would be for the movie industry to have a beloved summer blockbuster once again atop the artistic mountain. All hail “Barbenheimer” — with a fist bump to Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie” — for a one-two punch that made gutsy auteurs cool again among the masses.

Prediction: “Oppenheimer”

Best Director

Nominees: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”; Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”; Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”

Analysis: Christopher Nolan will also win Best Director for “Oppenheimer” thanks to his daring filmmaking style with flashes of the molecular level in the creation of the atomic bomb, then delivering a chilling sequence of Oppenheimer imagining a cheering crowd being incinerated by the blast. There’s also a sense among voters that Nolan is way overdue after an incredible run of great movies, including “Memento,” “The Prestige,” “The Dark Knight,” “Inception,” “Interstellar” and “Dunkirk.” It will truly be a joy to watch him win.

Prediction: Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)

Best Actor

Nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”; Colman Domingo, “Rustin”; Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”; Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”; Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer.”

Analysis: Best Actor started out as a tough race to call with Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) winning Best Actor: Comedy at the Golden Globes and Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) winning Best Actor: Drama at the Globes. Some thought Giamatti might win his overdue Oscar 20 years after “Sideways,” but Murphy has surged recently by winning at both the BAFTA and SAG Awards, making him the likely winner. He’s also a deserving one considering Nolan’s entire epic rests on his shoulders with close-ups of his tormented eyes.

Prediction: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”)

Best Actress

Nominees: Annette Bening, “Nyad”; Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”; Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Analysis: The Best Actress race is close after Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) both won at the Golden Globes before splitting at BAFTA and SAG. However, I expect the polarizing nature of “Poor Things” to push enough voters to Gladstone as they embrace her historic first win for a Native American actress. Personally, I wish she was featured more in the script, which often leaves her off screen being poisoned, but the moments she is on screen showcase strong acting of subtlety and nuance.

Prediction: Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”; Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”; Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”; Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Analysis: Just as Christopher Nolan has a super amount of goodwill built up over the years since “The Dark Knight,” Robert Downey Jr. remains beloved for central his role as Tony Stark in “The Avengers” franchise. In “Oppenheimer,” his slimy antagonist anchored the black-and-white flash forwards of Cold War McCarthyism, earning wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTA and SAG. Even voters who look down on superhero movies will finally give Downey Jr. his due, completing a magnificent comeback after his career stalled in the ’90s.

Prediction: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”; Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”; America Ferrera, “Barbie”; Jodie Foster, “Nyad”; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Analysis: All five actresses in this category delivered great performances, including Emily Blunt’s pained wife of a scientific genius in “Oppenheimer,” Danielle Brooks’ comic relief in “The Color Purple,” Jodie Foster’s comeback as the gritty coach of enduring swimming in “Nyad,” and America Ferrera’s speech about the contradictory expectations of being a modern woman in “Barbie.” However, this race belongs to Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s heartbreaking portrait of grief as the boarding-school chef in “The Holdovers,” having already won at the Golden Globes, BAFTA and SAG Awards. I can’t wait for her inspiring speech at the Oscars on Sunday.

Prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)