Nearly 80 million people will pack up and travel more than 50 miles over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period, setting a record and exceeding pre-pandemic travel, AAA projects.
The bulk of those travelers — an expected 71.7 million — will hit the road in a car, which also tops 2023 and pre-pandemic levels. In announcing its forecast, AAA cited INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights, and its advice on when to travel.
In the three days leading up to Thanksgiving, INRIX said the worst time to hit the road is between 1 and 5 p.m. On the Tuesday before the holiday, that window extends to 1-7 p.m.
On each of those days, INRIX recommended drivers travel in the morning, ideally before 10 a.m.
In the D.C. area specifically, INRIX said the worst day to drive is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, saying Route 50 eastbound from D.C. to Annapolis will take around an hour and a half — a 120% increase in travel time compared to a typical day.
However, WTOP Traffic Reporter Dave Dildine said the travel window is actually shifting earlier and earlier, which is good news for drivers.
“There’s been a significant shift toward the heaviest traffic being on the Friday before Thanksgiving. That’s a trend that started before the pandemic and accelerated in recent years,” Dildine said.
“More people are leaving at different times and the getaway is more temporally and spatially spread out. Just because more people are traveling doesn’t necessary mean traffic will be worse on your particular route,” he added.
On the Friday after Thanksgiving, it’s best to hit the road after 1 p.m., with INRIX projecting the heaviest traffic between 7 and 10 a.m. The heaviest congestion varies on the Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving, but it’s best to travel by car before 1 p.m. both days, according to INRIX.
No matter what day you’re driving, Dildine said the best time to leave is likely the most inconvenient time, meaning late at night or extremely early in the morning.
Record air travel also expected
This will likely be the busiest Thanksgiving holiday travel season ever at our nation’s airports.
AAA projects 5.84 million people will fly domestically during the holiday period. That’s an increase of 2% compared to last year and a nearly 11% increase over 2019. International flight bookings are up 23% compared to last Thanksgiving, too, in part because the cost to fly internationally is down 5%.
It’s not just AAA. The Transportation Security Administration is also predicting record air travel.
Earlier this year, TSA screened more than 3 million passengers in a single day. And TSA Administrator David Pekoske said he expects that to happen again next week.
He said it may not happen before Thanksgiving though, as the administration expects 2.8 million passengers on Tuesday and 2.9 million Wednesday.
“And then the Sunday following Thanksgiving, which is always our busiest day — it’s the busiest day of the year typically in passenger travel — that will be a day that will have more than 3 million passengers,” Pekoske said.
He advised arriving early to the airport and said to expect long lines, even though TSA said it has increased staffing to its highest levels, while adding new technology aimed at improving efficiency. The hope is that you won’t need more than a half-hour to get through screening lines, even at the busiest times of the day.
Pekoske and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said if you’re flying, make sure to pack your patience. And they are reminding air travelers to be nice to those you encounter at the airports and in the air.
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