WASHINGTON — Will we see a Triple Crown winner two years in a row?
In the 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby, Nyquist galloped into Churchill Downs with a perfect record and left for Baltimore still undefeated. It was the fourth year in a row in which the favorite won the Derby — in 2013 it was Orb who won by 2 ½ lengths, 2014 saw California Chrome win as the favorite in both the Derby and the Preakness before falling short at the Belmont, and 2015 belonged to American Pharoah. The first horse to win the Triple Crown in 37 years, American Pharoah came into last year’s Kentucky Derby with his morning odds at 5-2, won by a length over Firing Line, and only got stronger to capture Horse Racing’s greatest achievement more than a month later in Elmont, New York.
Now that we’re into Preakness week, the question begs to be asked: Can Nyquist accomplish what many thought was impossible just a year ago?
I broke down some of the key factors for Nyquist heading into Saturday at Pimlico with New York Times Reporter and Horse Racing Expert Joe Drape, who is also the author of a new book titled: “AMERICAN PHAROAH: The Untold Story of the Triple Crown Winner’s Legendary Rise” (Hachette Books, April 2016). The full interview can be heard at the top of the article.
Weather
The forecast for Saturday in Baltimore is looking dreary to say the least. With rain that should be falling for most of the day, Drape says we won’t know if the track will be sloppy and soupy or deep and muddy until the afternoon.
Drape mentions how Nyquist has breeding for such a track, and the conditions could favor him because he can get out in front and potentially bother his competitors as the mud will sling back into their faces.
Doug O’Neill
While O’Neill might not have the accolades and accomplishments as American Pharoah’s Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, he does have two Triple Crown leg wins with I’ll Have Another in 2012.
Drape stressed, however, that above all it comes down to having an extraordinary horse. American Pharoah was a “perfectly engineered specimen” with a “flawless stride” according to Drape, and it was recognized by his farm manager at just three months old.
Pedigree
When handicapping a race and factoring in pedigree, Drape says that you mainly want to see that the horse came out of a line that produced previous winners and what the pedigree says they were suited for distance wise.
But now, Drape says you can “throw that all out the window” since Nyquist’s sire Uncle Mo, an American champion racehorse who went undefeated in his two year old season, won at a mile and a mile 1/16 but “just ran up the track” whenever he went longer.
Nyquist ran through his pedigree page at the Kentucky Derby, having no problem with the distance. That’s a great sign for the Preakness and especially the longest leg of the Triple Crown, the Belmont Stakes.
Post Position
In this year’s Preakness, there will be 11 horses running compared to 20 in the Derby. Drape says that if you falter out of the gate you can still recover, as opposed to if you have an inside post position at Churchill Downs.
What may hurt Nyquist’s chances, according to Drape, is the favorable position of Stradivari (8-1 on Wednesday) who drew the outside position on Saturday. The three year-old colt trained by Todd Pletcher now has a chance to be the controlling speed, and can keep an eye on Nyquist and decide whether he wants to rev up or keep pace with the Derby winner throughout the race.
So….will Nyquist win the 141st Preakness Stakes?
With all of the factors listed above, positive and negative, Drape simply states “you gotta have Nyquist and you gotta have him on top, because he’s probably going to win. He’s won eight in a row, every start, he’s won at the highest level, five grade ones.”
If you’re doing a trifecta or superfecta, hear the rest of Drape’s picks by listening to the full interview at the top of the article.
