After a weekend filled with late-spring warmth, the new workweek will start out with a cold front sliding through the region, making Monday a “Day of Transition.”
WASHINGTON — After a weekend filled with late-spring warmth, the new workweek will start out with a cold front sliding through the region, making Monday a “Day of Transition.”
The threat of showers will be with us for most of the day on Monday as southerly winds slowly back direction to more northerly by the end of the day. The showers will sort of align themselves in bands, making exact placement of them in the forecast difficult — and, indeed, it means some places will end up with more rainfall than others.
It’s all part of a pattern change where a dip in the jet stream steering winds will turn into a “cutoff upper low” over the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic, causing unsettled conditions with temperatures well below average for this time of the year, especially during the daytime (nighttime lows won’t be that far off, and there won’t be much of a range between high and low temperatures).
The greatest chance of showers will be Monday when the front is going through, but once the upper low is established for midweek, cold air aloft will create an unstable atmosphere and spotty pop-up showers will be possible at random, mostly in the afternoons. This low will lift out for the end of the week and allow an area of high pressure to take over, making a return to more seasonable weather, and it should be perfect weather for the Nationals return home on Friday.
Average highs for the D.C. area this week are in the low 80s and average lows are in the mid 60s.
The threat of showers will be with us for most of the day on Monday as southerly winds slowly back direction to more northerly by the end of the day.
(WTOP/Storm Team 4)
WTOP/Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
The output from the RPM computer model shows the scenario for the rain bands in our area on Monday as the front moves through. Fronts of this type usually set up “streaks” of showers along the front and they can be difficult to pinpoint until they start. A lot depends on the speed of the front. The heaviest rain will be just south of the boundary and at this time, that looks like the heavy rain will be mostly in southern sections of the listening area. It will all taper off Monday evening.
(Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: The Weather Company | Graphics: Storm Team 4
One thing this pattern won’t bring us this week is warm weather. Actually, we’ll be kind of bookended with seasonable warmth Monday and Friday. Monday’s top temperatures will likely occur in the midday hours and fall through the afternoon. The GFS computer model is likely overdoing temperatures Tuesday, depending on sunshine; the model is likely under-forecasting temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday – but only by a little.
(Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4
One thing this pattern won’t bring us this week is warm weather. Actually, we’ll be kind of bookended with seasonable warmth Monday and Friday. Monday’s top temperatures will likely occur in the midday hours and fall through the afternoon. The GFS computer model is likely overdoing temperatures Tuesday, depending on sunshine; the model is likely under-forecasting temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday – but only by a little.
(Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4
One thing this pattern won’t bring us this week is warm weather. Actually, we’ll be kind of bookended with seasonable warmth Monday and Friday. Monday’s top temperatures will likely occur in the midday hours and fall through the afternoon. The GFS computer model is likely overdoing temperatures Tuesday, depending on sunshine; the model is likely under-forecasting temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday – but only by a little.
(Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4
One thing this pattern won’t bring us this week is warm weather. Actually, we’ll be kind of bookended with seasonable warmth Monday and Friday. Monday’s top temperatures will likely occur in the midday hours and fall through the afternoon. The GFS computer model is likely overdoing temperatures Tuesday, depending on sunshine; the model is likely under-forecasting temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday – but only by a little.
(Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4
One thing this pattern won’t bring us this week is warm weather. Actually, we’ll be kind of bookended with seasonable warmth Monday and Friday. Monday’s top temperatures will likely occur in the midday hours and fall through the afternoon. The GFS computer model is likely overdoing temperatures Tuesday, depending on sunshine; the model is likely under-forecasting temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday – but only by a little.
(Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4)
Data: Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA | Graphics: Storm Team 4
Rainfall totals through Friday evening could be on the order of an inch, especially under some of the heavier rain bands that set up. This graphic from NOAA again shows the likelihood that the heaviest rains will likely be in southern sections of the region, mostly central Virginia and southern Maryland. Most of these amounts occur Monday, with only spotty light contributions through midweek.
(Weather Prediction Center, NOAA)
MONDAY
— Cloudy skies all day
— Showers moving through in waves; greatest chances in central Virginia and southern Maryland
— Seasonably mild but turning cooler later in the day
TUESDAY
— Mostly clear start, then becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon
— A few stray showers possible
— Temperatures slightly below average
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
— Mostly clear start, then becoming mostly cloudy during the afternoon
— A few stray showers in the afternoon and possibly a thunderstorm
— Temperatures 10 degrees below average, possibly cooler
FRIDAY
— Partly sunny skies
— Temperatures back up to near average, much warmer
Editor’s Note: The WTOP Workweek Weather Blog is intended as an in-depth yet plain language summary of the business week’s weather potential in the D.C. area along with an explanation of the contingencies and uncertainties that exist at the time of publication. For the latest actual Storm Team 4 forecast, check out the main WTOP Weather Page.
