Week 17 Washington Commanders rooting guide originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
Outside of the Washington Commanders’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers, nearly everything went perfectly for Washington in Week 16. Fears of losing their playoff destiny were dashed when the Detroit Lions (7-8) and the Seattle Seahawks (7-8) lost in the early game matchups.
Now, with winnable games on the horizon, there should be less of a reliance on the Commanders’ playoff competition losing to extend Washington’s season. Games against the Cleveland Browns (6-9) and the Dallas Cowboys (11-4) – who are one loss or one Eagles win from having no reason to play their starters in Week 18 – are right on par with teams they’ve beaten this season.
But nothing is taken for granted with this team, so there are some results that would be beneficial for Washington even if they can’t lock in a playoff spot themselves.
It boils down to a race between the Commanders, Lions, Seahawks and resurgent Green Bay Packers (7-8). Other teams are still in contention, but if any member of that group goes 2-0, they have a great shot of making the playoffs. The Burgundy and Gold, of course, has the leg up on the rest.
Washington is contending for one of the two final Wild Card spots. The New York Giants (8-6-1) lead the pack with a 91% chance to take one of them, per FiveThirtyEight. The Commanders are second at 29%, followed closely by the Seahawks (27%), Packers (27%) and the Lions (24%). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) could be dethroned as NFC South champion by the Carolina Panthers (6-9) and also play a factor. The New Orleans Saints (6-9) also hold an outside shot at the Wild Card.
There’s not too much to worry about in terms of tiebreakers. The Commanders lost the only one that will likely matter when they fell to the Giants in Week 15. Another tie would have to be involved for a traditional tiebreaker to be a factor with the rest of the teams.
No one clinched a spot in the NFC this past week, but Dallas did guarantee no worse than the No. 5 seed in the playoffs. The Atlanta Falcons (5-10) were eliminated.
That leaves eight teams vying for the final three spots.
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There is a methodology for this guide. The initial selection of which team to root for is based on the assumption that Washington wins out the remainder of the season (resulting in a 9-7-1 record). The only time it will not is when there is a bigger benefit in direct playoff positioning between the Commanders and another team for a matchup.
Tiebreaking procedures are considered with head-to-head results being the priority, followed by the win-loss percentage in division games (for NFC East opponents) and best record for games played within the NFC for everyone else.
So far Washington has tiebreakers over the following teams:
-Green Bay Packers (7-8) – head-to-head
The Burgandy and Gold have lost the tiebreakers to these teams:
-New York Giants (8-6-1) – head-to-head
-Detroit Lions (7-8) – head-to-head
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8) – conference record
Tiebreakers that are yet to be determined by contending teams:
Seattle Seahawks (7-8) and New Orleans Saints (6-9)
Washington Week 17 Rooting Guide
Dallas Cowboys (11-4) at Tennessee Titans (7-8)
Thursday, Dec. 29 at 8:15 p.m. ET
Dallas can now only finish as the No. 1 seed or the No. 5 seed. For Washington’s sake, the best scenario is the Cowboys getting locked into the No. 5 seed as the top Wild Card. If that happens this week, then Dallas might not play their starters for a full game in Week 18.
Getting there would require either a Dallas loss or an Eagles win, so root for the Titans.
Chicago Bears (3-12) at Detroit Lions (7-8)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
All of a sudden the surging Lions are in a sticky situation. Their playoff odds sit at just 24%, that’s now fifth for teams in the Wild Card race with only two spots available, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Detroit is right behind Washington in the playoff standings. If the Commanders and Seahawks both go 1-1 and the Lions go 2-0, then it is Detroit that claims the No. 7 seed. But that requires your playoff hopes to be in other teams’ hands.
A Washington win and a Lions’ loss would eliminate Detroit altogether. Root for the Bears.
Indianapolis Colts (4-10-1) at New York Giants (8-6-1)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Washington can still pass the Giants for the No. 6 seed. This is where the tiebreaker does come into play, but New York does still hold that. To overcome the tiebreaker, the Commanders have to go 2-0 and the Giants 0-2. Root for the Colts.
New Orleans Saints (6-9) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
It’s always great when a result can help the Commanders two-fold. An Eagles win locks Dallas into the No. 5 and makes the Week 18 game with Washington meaningless for the Cowboys. A Saints loss eliminates them from playoff contention. Root for the Eagles.
Carolina Panthers (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Carolina’s only path to the playoffs is by winning the NFC South. By beating the Buccaneers, they would take the tiebreaker over Tampa Bay and would need to win in Week 18 to clinch. Doing so would regulate the Buccaneers to the Wild Card race.
Washington already has too many teams competing for their Wild Card spot, root for the Buccaneers.
Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Washington Commanders (7-7-1)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
Here we are. Washington remains in control of their playoff destiny. This time they shouldn’t rely on other teams losing to keep that edge. Their path is so simple. Win their final two games and they’re in.
Entering the game with a 29% chance of making the playoffs, they are second – behind the Giants (92%) – fighting for the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds.
And here is how that changes…
Win: 50%
Loss: 7%
Tie: 17%
Yeah, a win would be a good idea, root for the Commanders.
There’s also a scenario where Washington could be eliminated with a loss this week. A loss to the Browns + a Packers win against Minnesota + a Lions win over the Bears would end the Commanders’ season. The Week 18 Detroit vs. Green Bay matchup would be a de facto play-in game.
New York Jets (7-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-8)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 4:05 p.m. ET
This is one of the biggest games in the NFL this week. It’s essentially a lose-and-you’re-out matchup for two teams sitting on the outside of the playoff picture.
Washington is only concerned about the Seahawks, though, and them losing. Seattle enters the weekend with a 27% chance of making the playoffs, the team most likely to unseat the Commanders for the No. 7 seed. Root for the Jets.
Minnesota Vikings (12-3) at Green Bay Packers (7-8)
Sunday, Jan. 1 at 4:25 p.m. ET
The Green Bay Packers aren’t going away quietly into the night. While everything went right for the Commanders last week in a loss, everything also went right for Green Bay.
Winning out for the Packers, plus one Commanders’ loss puts Green Bay in the postseason. Root for the Vikings.
