There hasn’t been much, if any, polling released in Virginia in the presidential race since President Joe Biden announced almost a month ago that he would be ending his campaign for reelection. But that changed Tuesday as Roanoke College released a poll filled with new data.
The Roanoke College poll showed an incredibly close race with Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by just three points, 47% to 44%.
The poll surveyed 691 likely voters in Virginia and had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
It was a flip from previous polling when President Biden was still in the race, which showed Biden tied with Trump or trailing by a few points. A Roanoke College poll from May had Biden and Trump tied 42% to 42%.
In July, Virginia Commonwealth University released a poll showing Trump ahead of Biden, 39% to 36%.
“The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought,” said Harry Wilson, professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error.”
‘People are excited’
Voter enthusiasm has been on an upswing for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, boosted this week by the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
“The enthusiasm and excitement about a campaign matters,” said Virginia Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger. “What I’m seeing across Virginia is that people are excited to get out and vote for the Harris-Walz ticket.”
In an interview with WTOP, Spanberger acknowledged that she was troubled by the polling showing momentum for Trump.
“The idea that this man could be on his way back to the White House was potentially, deeply concerning to me,” she said. “I think it’s extraordinary that President Biden was willing to say ‘I’m not the one who’s best suited to win this race, and therefore I’m going to step aside.'”
Spanberger is not seeking reelection in Virginia’s 7th District this year so she can run for governor in 2025.
Virginia’s current governor, Republican Glenn Youngkin, told WTOP that he believes the presidential race will conclude with a “very, very tight election.”
“Virginia has just been a very tight election state for the last few years,” Youngkin said. “The elections have all been determined on a razor thin margin, and I expect that’s going to be the case all the way up through Nov. 5.”
“As we head through August into September, I think the election is really going to take shape and we’ll see where everybody stands,” Youngkin added.
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