The Virginia Supreme Court’s decision striking down Democrats’ redistricting plan has sent political reverberations across the country and could have a significant impact on the midterm elections.
Democrats had counted on Virginia adding four seats to the state’s congressional delegation, moving from a 6-5 advantage to 10-1.
Only California has the potential to add more Democratic seats — five — of the states where the party has been trying to counter Republican redistricting.
The Virginia ruling comes only a few weeks after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was touting the referendum’s approval by state voters as a sign that Democrats were successfully neutering GOP gerrymandering in red states.
He remained defiant in a statement issued Friday after the decision, but like Democrats nationwide, clearly disappointed.
“The decision to overturn an entire election is unprecedented and an undemocratic action that cannot stand,” he said.
Virginia Democrats are making a last-ditch effort to preserve the results of the referendum that approved the newly drawn maps, asking the Virginia Supreme Court for a stay while they file an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court of the United States.
“Today’s action is an imperative step in the process we promised to pursue to explore every available option to restore the will of the voters. We will continue moving through that process deliberately, responsibly, and with full respect for the voters who made their voices heard,” Virginia Attorney General Jay Jones said in a statement through a spokesperson.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, meanwhile, joined Republicans in praising the Virginia Supreme Court ruling that could give him a better chance of hanging on to the GOP’s slim majority in the lower chamber.
“This ruling is a victory for democracy and ensures Virginians have fair representation in Congress,” he said in a statement.
Republicans have a 217-212 edge in the House, with one Independent. Five seats are vacant.
Redistricting: Current advantage GOP
After Virginia voters narrowly approved the redistricting amendment in last month’s referendum, it appeared Democrats had battled the GOP to a gerrymandering stalemate.
But the battleground changed considerably, after the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in a Louisiana case that weakened the Voting Rights Act.
Republicans are moving swiftly to add GOP-leaning districts in several states.
The Republican-controlled state legislature in Tennessee voted Thursday to create a new congressional map that carves up the Black-majority district anchored by Memphis.
It’s now likely that Tennessee Republicans could wipe out the last seat held by a Democrat — Rep. Steve Cohen, who has represented the 9th District for close to two decades. That would give Tennessee Republicans a 9-0 advantage.
Alabama Republicans are also moving quickly to create a new legislative map, along with Louisiana and possibly South Carolina.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has also unveiled a map that could create four more GOP seats in his state.
Overall, Republicans currently could add as many as 14 seats in various states, while Democrats are on track to add six.
Polling: Advantage Democrats
While Republicans are set up to potentially add more GOP lawmakers through redistricting, they face a historic disadvantage heading into the midterms.
The opposing party of the incumbent president has a long track record of picking up seats in nonpresidential election years.
A wide range of polls indicate Democrats are poised to do well in the midterms and they remain favored to flip control of the House.
In generic polls that ask voters which party’s candidate they would support for Congress, virtually all of them indicate an advantage for Democrats.
President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater, which could be a drag on Republican candidates. GOP candidates are also nervous about issues like high gas prices and the direction of the war with Iran and how they are affecting voters.
In Virginia, the latest ruling means voters will return to the polls in their current congressional districts.
Democrats believe a couple of Republicans remain vulnerable.
They are trying to defeat GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, who represents the 2nd District and Rep. Rob Wittman, who represents the 1st District.
Wittman was among the many Republicans praising the Virginia Supreme Court decision, saying it shows “you cannot cut corners on the Constitution.”
Democratic U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine accused the court of ignoring the will of voters, saying it “blocked the people’s choice.”
“So we have to campaign and win on their maps,” he said.
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