Virginia’s election is only a few weeks away and the race for attorney general is drawing attention following the discovery of text messages sent in 2022 by Democratic nominee Jay Jones.
In the messages, which recently resurfaced, Jones described a hypothetical scenario in which he would kill then-Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert. The messages were sent to Republican House of Delegates candidate Carrie Coyner.
At the time, Jones wrote:
- Three people, two bullets
- Gilbert, hitler, and pol pot
- Gilbert gets two bullets to the head
- Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time
Polling
Since the discovery, Jones has faced numerous calls from both Democrats and Republicans to drop out of the race. Polls have also shown the margins tightening between him and Republican incumbent candidate Jason Miyares.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said whether or not Miyares is really leading in polls remains to be seen.
“I don’t think we’ve really gotten true, nonpartisan polling of the race. Since the news about Jay Jones came out, there have been a few polls — including one from Jones’ campaign — that showed Jones losing ground, which makes sense. I mean, this is a huge story in Virginia politics,” Kondik said.
Thursday’s AG debate
The candidates for attorney general are set to have their first and only debate on Thursday.
Kondik said Miyares will likely try to ensure Jones’ text messages stay front and center in the minds of voters.
“I think the key thing is, what happens in this debate, and does it either sustain or stall this story?” Kondik said.
He also highlighted new advertisements incorporating the text messages from Jones.
“Miyares has already run, what I think are, some pretty effective ads using this text messaging story against Jones. And so he should be able to have some sort of advantage on that down the stretch of the election,” Kondik said.
National politics and ticket splitting
Despite the recent controversy surrounding Jones, Kondik said the current political environment still favors Democrats in Virginia politics. He also pointed to the polling in Virginia’s race for governor, which shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
“The challenge is, I think, it’s still probably a Democratic-leaning environment overall, in Virginia and nationally in 2025,” Kondik said. “I do think Abigail Spanberger is still favored in the governor’s race, and then the question is whether there are long enough coattails to allow Jones to win.”
He said ticket splitting has been on the decline in Virginia and it’s a great test to see how potent ticket splitting is.
“It’s possible that Jones gets beat up on this story for the rest of the campaign, but still is able to win just because of these bigger picture factors,” Kondik said.
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