Pep Guardiola doesn’t like going to Anfield at the best of times.
“They scare me,” the Manchester City manager said of Liverpool and its prolific, Mohamed Salah-led strikeforce during a fly-on-the-wall documentary back in 2018, when Guardiola’s team was comfortably the finest in England.
Just imagine what he is thinking now?
Amid the worst run of results in his coaching career, Guardiola probably would prefer any other fixture on the calendar than Liverpool away.
But that’s what is facing him and his beleaguered defending champions on Sunday in the biggest modern-day Premier League rivalry which, on current form, threatens to be a mismatch.
“It’s going to be as tough as it is possible to be,” City midfielder Ilkay Gundogan said, “but that sums up the situation right now.”
Indeed, Liverpool and City — the league’s current top two, separated by eight points — are trending in opposite directions.
Liverpool not only leads the Premier League but also the 36-team Champions League. It is coming off a win over Real Madrid, and has won 17 of its 19 games in all competitions this season, losing just once.
City just squandered a 3-0 lead from the 75th minute to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord, having previously lost five straight games including 4-0 at home to Tottenham. Guardiola has never lost so many in a row in his coaching career. The team has conceded at least two goals in each of those six games and 17 in total. City is in 17th place in the Champions League standings and might be out of the Premier League top four come Sunday night.
Guardiola acknowledged fairly bluntly this week: “We’re not able to win games now. As a team, we always found a way to win games … but right now, nothing happens.”
So how have things fallen apart for City, the winner of the last four Premier League titles, so spectacularly?
Injuries
City is dearly missing season-long absentee Rodri, the Ballon d’Or winner and the holding midfielder who is so important in conducting their attacking play and protecting the defense. Mateo Kovacic has been acting as Rodri’s replacement but returned from Croatia duty injured last week and missed the 4-0 loss to Tottenham, as well as the Feyenoord game. None of City’s four senior center backs — John Stones, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake — seems 100% healthy either. All were absent two weeks ago and are being rushed back, possibly prematurely. Meanwhile, star playmaker Kevin De Bruyne hasn’t started a match since the middle of September because a nagging groin injury.
Tactical flaws
All teams have injuries, however, and it’s about how you deal with them. Guardiola, for all his undoubted genius as a tactician, hasn’t done so very well. He has admitted to being unwilling to change his style and is wedded to a heavy-pressing, possession-based approach whatever personnel he has available. Other coaches might switch tactics in the circumstances, possibly playing more defensively and primarily on the counterattack — like Carlo Ancelotti did with Real Madrid at City in the Champions League last season. Guardiola says he can’t do that. If City tries to go toe to toe with a dynamic Liverpool on Sunday, it could go badly wrong.
Recruitment
Questions have to be asked about City’s transfer strategy and recruitment over the last two years. How can Rodri be the only out-and-out holding midfielder in the squad? Kovacic and now Gundogan are deputizing in that position but it’s not their strength. How can Erling Haaland be City’s only genuine striker in the squad? City sold Julian Alvarez, essentially Haaland’s backup, to Atletico Madrid in the offseason and didn’t replace him. Don’t be surprised if Haaland gets injured given how overworked he is and will continue to be this season. City’s recent midfield signings — Matheus Nunes, Kovacic and Gundogan — haven’t worked out or dealt with what should have been priorities elsewhere. Kovacic and Gundogan are in their 30s, leaving City’s midfield looking slow, especially off the ball, and tired. City also used to have goal-scoring wingers like Raheem Sterling, Leroy Sane and Riyad Mahrez. In Jack Grealish, Savinho and Jeremy Doku, they have technically excellent players with barely any output.
Small squad
This season, of all seasons, Guardiola needed a big squad. Injuries are impossible to predict but he knew there would be more games in the schedule because of an expanded Champions League format and the Club World Cup in the United States that will extend City’s campaign potentially until mid-July. Guardiola has always liked working with a small squad, however, to keep as many players as possible involved. That surely has to change.
The charges
It’s an intangible but how much is the upcoming verdict on the more than 100 charges against City for alleged financial breaches weighing on the squad? It’s widely known that the outcome should come early in 2025, with points deductions and even relegation a possibility. Futures are on the line at the club. Maybe the players are starting to feel that.
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Steve Douglas is at https://twitter.com/sdouglas80
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