Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Check out his ballots here.
March is not for the faint of heart.
Seasons end for the vast majority of schools over the next week and a half (a few have already been put out to pasture with conference tournaments underway). But for every school playing tag with the NCAA Tournament bubble (Wake Forest and St. John’s come to mind), there are schools who have known their season has been crumbling from the moment it left the oven when conference play began in earnest this January.
Georgetown (9-21, 2-17 Big East) has known for some time that its only path to the NCAA Tournament would involve winning four games in four days at the Big East Tournament. And while some will say the Hoyas won four games in four days back in 2021 to crash the party, they’ll also be reminded that Georgetown has won exactly four conference games in 58 games since that miracle run.
Tuesday’s 71-58 loss to Providence was their final appearance at Capital One Arena this winter.
“This was a very winnable game, like as winnable of a Big East game as we’ve had all year,” Coach Ed Cooley said. “If there ever was a time for us to get a win, today was it. And we had probably eight open looks on four or five possessions.”
The Hoyas aren’t the only team that’s fallen apart over the last two months as George Washington (15-15, 4-13 Atlantic 10) went from its best start in eight years to its longest losing streak since the 1988-89 season. George Mason (19-11, 8-9) has been streaky in a different way, from winning three straight to dropping three in a row three separate times.
And while team defense (Georgetown and George Washington each rank second to last in their respective conferences in points allowed) has been an Achilles’ heel for both schools, Maryland (15-15, 7-12 Big Ten) has had issues shooting (351st out of 361 Division I schools from three-point range as of Wednesday) since the first weekend of the season. More on the Terps’ crumbling hopes below.
Girl Scout Cookie rankings
The talk of crumbling NCAA dreams allows one to smoothly transition to what’s really on our mind this week: the official 2024 Girl Scout Cookie Rankings.
There’s some exciting news this March as the field has been thinned: but while the loss of Toast-Yays! and Raspberry Rallies provide addition by subtraction, one feels the committee made the wrong call by eliminating Lemonades (frosting like defense always travels well in March) and Caramel Chocolate Chip (major misstep).
But with nine flavors remaining at least we get the “Les Robinson Game” back (ACC fans of a certain age, this is a gift to you).
As always, these rankings are completely subjective and 100% accurate:
9.) Lemon Ups: “Crispy lemon flavored cookies with inspiring messages to lift your spirits.” Somehow the lesser of the lemon cookies survived the purge. And they don’t even come in a box! That inspires me to eliminate these quickly from consideration.
8.) Toffee-tastic: “Rich, buttery cookies with sweet, crunchy, toffee bits.” And they’re gluten-free! But they crumble rather quickly, making it rather difficult to have a conversation while eating.
7.) Girl Scout S’mores: “Graham sandwich cookies with chocolaty and marshmallowy flavored filling.” Not “chocolate” or “marshmallow,” but their “Y” versions. These also come in a bag instead of a box. What gives?
6.) Trefoils: “Iconic shortbread cookies inspired by the original Girl Scout recipe.” Fundamentally sound, a cookie collection without tradition is but as shaky as a shortbread on the roof. But the sun sets early on this flavor.
5.) Adventurefuls: “Indulgent brownie-inspired cookies with caramel flavored creme and a hint of sea salt.” Last year’s surprise Final Four participant takes a step back as opponents have more tape on it, although its combination of caramel and brownie is very tough to defend.
4). Samoas: “Crisp cookies with caramel, coconut and dark chocolaty stripes.” This is the complex cookie not for first year players. It takes years to get in sync with nuances of this flavor. And this is one of those Marches it doesn’t match up well with the more physical or athletic foes.
3.) Do-si-dos: “Oatmeal sandwich cookies with peanut butter filling.” Bring a glass of milk for this one. This physical cookie is definitely Final Four-worthy, but if the refs have a quick whistle I see foul trouble.
2.) Thin mints: “Crisp, chocolaty cookies made with natural oil of peppermint.” Brace yourself for a pressing, fast-breaking, three-taking flavor that can run you out of the gym (and box after box). Sleeves have been consumed in one sitting. But can they play half-court?
1.) Tagalongs: “Crispy cookies layered with peanut butter and covered with a chocolaty coating.” The Cookie Bracket Breakdown is all about matchups and this one can play up-tempo with Thin Mints, match the physicality of the Do-Si-Do, and play the half-court game of the Samoa.
This week’s Starting Five:
Up Top — Houston stays No. 1 on my ballot this week, followed by Purdue and UConn. After the top three, there’s a little separation with a huge middle class (of the Top 25 anyway). My biggest variances: I had No. 11 Baylor 18th on my ballot and No. 17 South Carolina 11th. Difficult omissions: BYU, St. Mary’s, Dayton, Appalachian State and James Madison. Small school shout-outs: Indiana State, McNeese State and Richmond.
Going Inside — Maryland saw its Senior Day turn from sweet to sour in Sunday’s 83-78 loss to Indiana. The team that had hung its hat on dominant defense (top five in KenPom and fewest points allowed in the Big Ten) all season allowed the Hoosiers to make 12 straight shots and 73% of their attempts in the second half.
“Really it was just transition, they went on a quick little 5-0 run,” Coach Kevin Willard said. “Give them credit. They really pushed the pace on us and it was kind of tough, because they weren’t doing anything in the half-court, but they were really attacking us in transition.”
The result saw another close loss in a season filled with them (Maryland is 2-8 in conference games decided by two possessions this season). Just as disturbing has been the loss of what was a huge home court advantage: last winter the Terps went 10-0 in Big Ten play at Xfinity Center while this season they’re 4-6 on the home floor.
“That’s probably the most frustrating thing,” Willard said. “For some reason, we’ve just struggled. We haven’t struggled nearly as much on the road, they seem much more relaxed on the road than they do at home. I can’t really put my finger on it.”
The loss to IU also assures the Terps of their first-ever trip to the Big Ten Tournament’s dreaded first round and they wrap up the regular season Sunday with a trip to Penn State, and even when they’ve been good, Maryland has struggled in Happy Valley (1-6 since joining the conference).
Perimeter Play — James Madison (28-3, 15-3 Sun Belt), despite starting the season by going unbeaten during its entire nonconference slate that included a trip to preseason No. 4 Michigan State while finishing its schedule with 10 straight wins, finds itself squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Dukes’ fate will likely depend on how they perform this weekend in their conference tournament in Pensacola, Florida.
Anything short of losing in the championship game to Appalachian State would place the Dukes in the dumpster, and even a close loss to the Mountaineers would have a 30-win team sweating it out. And that’s a shame, because JMU has had one of those special seasons a mid-major school talks about for years.
They’ve dominated their conference, leading the Sun Belt in scoring, shooting, three-point percentage, turnover margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. They’re second to App. State in points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin while ranking second to Louisiana in defending the three (no idea how the Ragin’ Cajuns sneaked in there).
Saturday at 8:30 p.m. in the quarterfinals the Dukes face the winner of Georgia State-Marshall, two teams they swept during the regular season (average margin 13 points against the Eagles and 21 against the Thundering Herd). Southern Mississippi is the only team other than Appalachian State to defeat JMU this season and the Golden Eagles are a potential semifinal foe (if they can beat No. 11 seed Texas State and No. 3 seed Troy).
Who’s Open —Thursday night, American (16-15, 10-8 Patriot League) battles Bucknell in the Patriot League Tournament Quarterfinals as Head Coach Duane Simpkins deals with having home court advantage.
“This will be my first time as a coach or a player doing a postseason and hosting a home game. This will be new for me,” Simpkins said after Saturday’s loss at Bender Arena to Navy. “I want to get that bad taste out of our mouth: we’ve lost three games in a row at home. So we want to be able to push the reset button and start a new winning streak.”
AU swept the regular season series with the Bison, although they did need overtime to take the meeting in D.C. Patriot League First Teamer Matt Rogers scored 23 and 10 points in the two meetings while freshman Matt Mayock averaged 16 points with four rebounds in the series. Bison to watch: Jack Forrest averaged 18 points with five rebounds against AU while Elvin Edmonds IV ranks third in the conference in assists per game.
Last Shot — Saturday, the regular season wraps up in Fairfax as George Mason (19-11, 8-9 Atlantic 10) meets Richmond (23-7, 15-2). The Patriots ended their most recent slide at three by winning at Rhode Island on Wednesday while the Spiders need a win or a Loyola Chicago loss to wrap up their first outright regular season crown since joining the league in 2001. UR took the January meeting at the Robins Center by seven on a day when Jordan King scored 31 points while hitting 6-8 threes.
I saw this team hit 77% of its shots in the first half at George Washington and when Coach Chris Mooney’s team is on point offensively, Neal Quinn (21 points in a Wednesday win over Saint Joe’s) and company appear all the mightier. GMU’s victory over Rhode Island (one of three Rams in the Atlantic 10) assures them of not having to play in the dreaded first round at next week’s conference tournament, and they can finish as high as seventh with a victory Saturday.
Will Mason’s leading scorer and rebounder Keyshawn Hall (17 points and eight boards per game) be back in the lineup after missing the last two games with injury?
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