WASHINGTON — I nearly threw up Thanksgiving dinner when I uttered this phrase Thursday: Dallas is the best team in the league.
If former Cowboys coach Bill Parcells is correct, the 10-1 record in Big D is all you need to know. Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott are taking the league by storm in a way that Dallas greats like Roger Staubach, Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith never did; the 2016 Cowboys are in the midst of a franchise-record 10-game win streak and might only be a boneheaded Terrence Williams play away from being undefeated.
The Cowboys’ Turkey Day win over the rival Redskins and Seattle’s no-show in Tampa Bay Sunday have made Dallas a virtual lock to get home field advantage in the NFC, so it’s time to start wrapping our heads around the reality that the Cowboys — the team that for over a decade has been way more sizzle than steak — are actually for real.
Prescott and Elliott are legitimate and likable stars. Prescott’s 108.4 QB rating is the fourth-best in the league, and his efficiency (67.9 completion percentage and 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio) is off the charts for a rookie. Elliott has been the league’s leading rusher for most of the season (his 1,199 yards are 156 more than his closest competition) and his 11 rushing touchdowns are the second only to LeGarrette Blount. Prescott and Elliott play behind the best offensive line in football and provide clock-chewing relief for a defense that’s plenty good and opportunistic when it doesn’t spend more than half the game on the field.
But is Dallas Super Bowl good?
If you look into the quality of the Cowboys’ 10-1 record, it’s not exactly breathtaking. Their schedule is ranked the third easiest in the NFL, in large part because they had the benefit of playing the three worst teams in the league (Cleveland, San Francisco and Chicago). Dallas’ only conference victories against teams with a winning record were against division foes (Giants, Redskins twice). With Green Bay cratering, the Cowboys’ most impressive win might be a toss up between a shootout in Pittsburgh and the blitzkrieg of the top-ranked (at the time) Ravens defense.
That’s why I’m leery of simply assuming Dallas will waltz right into the Super Bowl. While the Cowboys picked a good year to get really good (as of today, the Seahawks, Lions and Falcons are the other division leaders; only Seattle has appreciably more playoff experience than Dallas), the possibility of a postseason pitfall is very real. I’m not ready to assume the epic regular season performances by Prescott and Elliott can simply be extrapolated to the playoffs and as of today, the 8-3 Giants and 6-4-1 Redskins are the NFC Wild Cards — a double entendre of sorts, considering division rivals who have played them close in three games so far might be the sum of all fears for a team with such high expectations.
Arguably, the Cowboys’ toughest games lie ahead. Their remaining schedule features prime-time road games against the Vikings and Giants, home games against the Bucs and Lions, then the regular season finale in Philadelphia to play an Eagles team they beat by only six points in Week 8.
It’s not unreasonable to assume the Cowboys will go 3-2 during that stretch and easily clinch home field advantage. Perhaps the final five games serve as a good warm up for the playoffs. Or maybe Dallas gets exposed before going close to three weeks without playing a meaningful game, then hosts a Divisional Round game against a hot Wild Card team.
Personally, I doubt the Cowboys would survive a third meeting with the Redskins or Giants and even if they did, Seattle has a defense capable of slowing down Prescott and Elliott long enough to get Russell Wilson and company in position to steal a win late.
This much we know: Dallas is relatively healthy (they’re beat up in the secondary but their offense is close to full strength) and has a ton of momentum. In a year when there’s no real dominant team in the NFL, that might be all it takes for Jerry Jones to finally get what he wants, but doesn’t quite know how to properly define.
