WASHINGTON — Always Dreaming and Cloud Computing — winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, respectively — will not be competing in the 2017 Belmont Stakes. Classic Empire was set to be the favorite in the third leg of the Triple Crown, but he’s dealing with an abscess in his right front. (I don’t have a right front foot, but I’ve dealt with an abscess and boy, are they horribly painful. Godspeed to you, CE.)
So when you have zero shot of a Triple Crown winner this year for the second consecutive year … why should you care?
Because winning money is fun! And we’ll try and help you do that this Saturday. Here’s the field for the 149th running of the Belmont Stakes:
How they’ll finish:
Win: Irish War Cry
In a wide open field, Irish War Cry is the favorite, drawing the #7 post. He’s run some of the best races out of any horse in this field, winning the Wood Memorial back in April over Preakness winner Cloud Computing. He defeated Gunnevera and Classic Empire in the Holy Bull in February. He even looked good in the Kentucky Derby; he just seemingly came up empty in the last ¼ mile at Churchill Downs.
That being said, I’m not worried about stamina when it comes to Irish War Cry. I think he can handle the mile-and-a-half race, which is longer than both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. My only issue with Irish War Cry are his odds, so you’ll have to pair him with the following horse or horses if you’d like to make some coin Saturday.
Did I mention he was bred in New Jersey? I guess that makes him somewhat of a home favorite on Long Island, right?
Place: Tapwrit
This pick isn’t so much about the horse as it is about his trainer, Todd Pletcher. Pletcher trained Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming and now sends Tapwrit and Patch to the gate this Saturday. Pletcher historically likes to skip the Preakness so his horses are fresh for the Belmont, and he’s found success there with Rags to Riches in 2007 and Palace Malice back in 2013.
Tapwrit’s Kentucky Derby performance was just OK — it didn’t help that he was sandwiched right from the start before finishing sixth. And according to Daily Racing Form’s AWD model that measures stamina in relation to pedigree, Tapwrit is tied with Epicharis at the top of the field. In the grueling mile and a half, that’s more than half the battle!
Show: Senior Investment
Again, I’m looking at the trainer here, and Kenneth McPeek is somebody that deserves some recognition. He burst onto the scene back in 2002, winning with 70-1 shot Sarava. The veteran trainer has won more than 174 stakes in his career and has 1,536 career wins, with earnings of more than $71 million. Most importantly, McPeek knows how to get his horses ready for long races.
As far as Senior Investment goes, he seems to either duplicate his last performance or improve upon it in every race. He won the Lexington Grade 3, albeit against a weaker field, but finished third in the obviously stronger field at the Preakness. Plus, he’s run well off short rest before, so I think with his odds, he’s got some value and should be included in your boxes.
Dark Horse: Epicharis
I don’t mean the Japanese horse is a dark horse in regards to his odds, as he’s checking in at 7-2, which makes him the second favorite. It’s more because of the fact that we just don’t know a ton about him. He’s been trained to run long distances more so than American horses, but he’s lightly raced and had to deal with being quarantined upon leaving Japan.
What makes it even more difficult to handicap Epicharis is the fact that he’s dealing with a lame right front and could end up being scratched if it does not improve. Stay tuned …
