New England (3-11) at Buffalo (11-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM NFL odds: Bills by 14.
Series record: Patriots lead 78-50-1.
Against the spread: Patriots 5-8-1, Bills 9-5.
Last meeting: Bills beat Patriots 27-21 on Dec. 31 at Orchard Park, New York.
Last week: Patriots lost to Cardinals 30-17; Bills beat Lions 48-42.
Patriots offense: overall (30), rush (14), pass (32), scoring (31).
Patriots defense: overall (21t), rush (21), pass (16t), scoring (23).
Bills offense: overall (7), rush (9), pass (7), scoring (2).
Bills defense: overall (23), rush (14), pass (25), scoring (12).
Turnover differential: Patriots minus-7; Bills plus-18
Patriots player to watch
QB Drake Maye. The rookie first-round pick is coming off his second straight game in which he completed 80% of his passes after going 19 of 23 for 202 yards (82.6%) in last week’s loss at Arizona. Maye has a 68.5% completion rate on the season. The highest completion rate for an NFL rookie quarterback was 67.8% by Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott in 2016.
Bills player to watch
QB Josh Allen. What will the Bills starter do next following a three-game run in which he’s combined for seven passing TDs, six rushing TDs and caught his own pass for a receiving TD? With two touchdowns passing and two more rushing against Detroit, Allen became the NFL’s first player to score two or more of each in consecutive games, and doing so for a third time this season.
Key matchup
Bills pass rush vs. Patriots O-line. Relying mostly on a four-man pass rush, Buffalo ranks 25th in the NFL in sacks per passing play, and faces an opponent that ranks 28th by allowing a sack for nearly every seven drop-backs. New England has allowed a combined 13 sacks in losing its past four outings.
Key injuries
Patriots safety Kyle Dugger (ankle, illness), running back JaMycal Hasty (ankle) and cornerback Marcus Jones (hip) all sat out the first practice of the week. … Buffalo might play it safe with LB Matt Milano, who sustained a groin injury last week in his third game after missing nearly 14 months with a broken leg and torn left biceps. The status of the Bills banged-up secondary bears watching with CB Rasul Douglas (knee), S Damar Hamlin (rib) and S Taylor Rapp (neck) limited in practice Wednesday after not playing against Detroit.
Series notes
The Bills are 7-2 in their past nine meetings, including playoffs, in a stretch that coincides with Tom Brady leaving New England for Tampa Bay following the 2019 season. The Patriots, under Brady, had essentially owned Buffalo in going 34-4 during his 19-year tenure as starter. … Buffalo is 4-1 at home against New England since 2020, including a 49-17 win in a 2021 wild-card playoff meeting.
Stats and stuff
This marks Buffalo’s first meeting against New England since coach Jerod Mayo replaced Bill Belichick as Patriots coach this offseason. The teams meet again in two weeks to close the season at New England. … The Patriots haven’t closed a season with three or fewer wins since a 2-14 finish in 1992. … The Patriots rank 30th in the NFL, scoring a touchdown on only 46.3% (19 of 41) of their trips inside the red zone. … Patriots TE Hunter Henry enters this week with a team-leading 62 receptions for 635 yards. The 62 catches is single-season career high. He can surpass his career mark for yards (652 with Chargers in 2019) with 18 against the Bills. Henry has a streak of 17 consecutive games with at least one reception. … RB Rhamondre Stevenson (3,005 career yards rushing) needs 176 yards over the final three games to move past Corey Dillon (3,180) into eighth place on the team’s Patriots’ career list. … Deatrich Wise has five sacks on the season enters the week 2 1/2 shy of tying his career best of 7 1/2 set during the 2022 season. … CB Marcus Jones is second in the NFL with a 14.8-yard punt return average (26 returns for 386 yards). … The Bills are 11-3 or better through 14 games for just the seventh time in team history, and third time since 2020. … Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in eight straight outings, matching the NFL single-season record achieved four previous times, and most recently by Denver in 2013. … Allen last weekend joined Russell Wilson (2019) in becoming the NFL’s second player to top 350 yards passing with two TDs and 50 yards rushing with two TDs in a single game. … Allen’s 74 regular-season wins are tied for second with Patrick Mahomes for most in a quarterback’s first seven seasons — and one behind Wilson. … Allen has not turned over the ball in three straight outings, and eight times this season. … RB James Cook’s 13 TDs rushing are tied for second in the NFL, and the most since LeSean McCoy had that many in 2016. The Bills single-season record is 16, set in 1975 by O.J. Simpson in a 14-game season. … Buffalo’s 28 TDs rushing are the most through 14 games, and one short of the single-season record set in 2016. … With a forced fumble against Detroit, the Bills have forced a takeaway in all but one game this season. … Buffalo allowed a franchise-worst 494 yards passing to Lions QB Jared Goff last weekend. Goff’s five TDs passing were the most given up by Buffalo since Drew Brees had five in the Saints 35-17 win on Oct. 27, 2013.
Fantasy tip
Cook. In what Buffalo likes calling an “everybody eats” approach in sharing the offensive production, the third-year running back appears to have the biggest plate at the table. Cook is coming off his third 100-yard-rushing outing of the season, and second in three weeks, and his fourth two-TD outing of the season. He’s scored in all but four games this season.
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