In the 2014 midterm elections, Democrats couldn’t run fast enough away from President Barack Obama. Senate candidates in the president’s party didn’t campaign with him, worried that voter frustration over the slowly recovering economy and Obamacare, combined with the usual lower Democratic turnout in midterm elections, would doom them. Fast forward to this year, and the outgoing president isn’t just being embraced by Democratic contenders. At least two imperiled Republicans have put images of Obama into their campaign ads — and in a positive way.
That turn of events would seem bizarre in a normal campaign year, when Republicans would point to the outgoing president as the warden presiding over their soon-to-be-ending, eight-year prison sentence, with the GOP nominee as their liberator. And Democrats, too, might celebrate the lame duck president’s accomplishments, but still make it very clear they have an agenda of change. But this is not a normal election year. And faced with two of the least popular presidential nominees in modern history at the top of the ticket, down-ticket candidates are scrambling to find the balance that will get them to (or back to) a job in Washington.
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Obama is enjoying some of the highest approval ratings of his two-term presidency, and “that’s quite unusual,” says Mark Peterson, a political science professor at UCLA and an expert on the presidency. “It means the incumbent presents a lifeboat as opposed to an anchor, which is usually where presidents are as they round out their last few months” in elected office, he adds.
Obama, rejected in 2014 by such Senate Democratic candidates as Arkansas’s Mark Pryor and North Carolina’s Kay Hagan (both of whom lost anyway) is now traveling the country, with a visible bounce in his step, as he seeks to help contenders in North Carolina, Nevada, Illinois and elsewhere. He has personally lambasted such GOP Senate incumbents as Marco Rubio of Florida and Rob Portman of Ohio, accusing them of offering too little, too late, in their criticism of Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, at least two GOP candidates, Portman and California Rep. Darryl Issa, have featured Obama in their campaign ads, presenting themselves as bipartisan operators. That was particularly startling from Issa, who has spent a great deal of time investigating the Obama administration (a point Obama made in criticizing the Issa ads as “shameless”).
The candidate not showing up in ads for Republicans in tight races? That would be their party’s own pick for president, Trump. And that factor could cost the GOP its Senate majority, complicating the party’s mission next year.
Veteran prognosticators expect Democrats to pick up seats in the House, but not regain control of the chamber (redistricting has made the vast majority of GOP incumbents safe for re-election, and Democrats would need to score a 30-seat gain to take the Speakership). The Senate, however, appears poised for a party flip.
Part of that is due to a perfect mathematical storm. Democrats have to defend just 10 seats next week, while Republicans have 24 seats up for election. And Democrats tend to turn out more in presidential election years, giving the party an added boost.
But it’s Trump that has caused the biggest headache for his party’s congressional prospects, experts say. Republican contenders struggled to distance themselves from Trump’s comments to attract independents and establishment Republicans, while not rejecting him outright and irritating their party base. That was keeping some imperiled candidates in the running, says Jennifer Duffy, a veteran analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Democrats were trying to knock out GOP opponents by running ad after ad tying them to Trump. It wasn’t really working. “Not until the damning tapes — then, it started to work,” says Duffy, referring to the tape of Trump bragging about using his fame to sexually molest women.
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New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte started out saying she supported Trump but did not endorse him, then said at a debate that he was a “role model” for children (she quickly clarified that comment to say she meant that all kids should see running for president as a possibility). And after the Trump tape was released, Ayotte disavowed Trump — a move that may have alienated hardcore Trump supporters in the Granite State. “I think the tape was just too much for her. I don’t think her strategists wanted her to do what she did. There has been some serious backlash,” Duffy says.
In Nevada, too, the GOP Senate nominee, Rep. Joe Heck, was poised to score the Republicans’ only pickup in the Senate, taking the seat now occupied by retiring Sen. Harry Reid. Heck, who had embraced Trump, called on Trump to withdraw from the race after the tape was released — and got booed for it by Trump supporters at a GOP rally.
If Hillary Clinton wins the presidency, Democrats would need to flip four seats to take the majority in the Senate (with a Vice President Tim Kaine casting the tie-breaking vote). If Trump wins, Democrats would need to net five seats. Senate races that could determine who runs the chamber next year include:
Illinois, where Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth is expected to oust GOP Sen. Mark Kirk. Kirk has denounced Trump but has also made comments that have upset the Democratic-heavy state (including a derogatory remark about Duckworth’s Asian background). Illinois is a tough venue for a Republican, anyway, and running for the Senate in a presidential election year makes it even tougher for Kirk.
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Wisconsin, where former Sen. Russ Feingold is trying to get his old job back by unseating Sen. Ron Johnson. Wisconsin is also a Democratic-leaning state. Should Feingold succeed, he will be the first senator since 1934 to avenge his own loss, Duffy notes.
Pennsylvania, where GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is neck-and-neck with Democrat Katie McGinty, who served as an adviser to both Vice President Al Gore and President Bill Clinton. Much depends on how well Hillary Clinton does in the state. A good showing among African-Americans in the cities as well as women in suburban Philadelphia could put both female contenders over the top.
New Hampshire, where Ayotte is running against Democrat Maggie Hassan, a popular governor. That race may hinge on Clinton’s performance in the Granite State, where she is leading in several polls. A big Clinton victory could carry Hassan to victory, especially if Trump supporters refuse to cast a Senate vote because of Ayotte’s disavowal of the GOP nominee.
Nevada, where Democratic nominee Catherine Cortez Masto could become the first Latina U.S. senator. Early voting numbers favor Democrats, and Heck’s inartful handling of his relationship with and to Trump has damaged him.
Indiana, where former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh is trying to return to the Senate, challenging Rep. Todd Young for the seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Dan Coats (who himself left the Senate and came back). Bayh was an early favorite in this red state because of his name recognition and $9 million campaign chest left over form his first Senate stint. But he has been damaged by his record as a lobbyist and charges that he has not spent much time in Indiana since he left the Senate in 2011.
Missouri, where GOP Sen. Roy Blunt has found himself in an unexpectedly close race against Democrat Jason Kander, a military veteran who has run an extremely effective ad, defending his stance on gun control by assembling an assault rifle — blindfolded. Blunt, ironically has been damaged by Trump’s anti-establishment message, Duffy notes, helping the three-decades-younger Kander.
North Carolina, where GOP Sen. Richard Burr faces a strong challenge from Democrat Deborah Ross. The state has been changing demographically, making it more competitive for Democrats. But Republicans are also suffering from public discontent with a GOP-passed “bathroom bill” requiring transgender individuals to use the public restroom assigned to their birth sex. The controversial law has energized Democrats and threatens to fell the campaigns of not just Burr and Trump, but Gov. Pat McCrory.
Less in contention states include Ohio, where sitting GOP Sen. Rob Portman has run what Duffy calls an almost perfect campaign for a Republican this year. He started early, recognizing that he would be running in a swing presidential state, and has managed to avoid having his race nationalized. Democrats once hoped to pick up this seat, but former Gov. Ted Strickland is expected to lose the race.
Florida, too, is looking less in reach for Democrats (though not off the table). Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio upset voters with his declaration he would retire after his 2016 run for president — and subsequent refusal to commit to a full term once he changed his mind. But Rubio polls well among Latinos (unlike most Republicans) and is favored, though slightly, to best Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy.
PHOTOS: [The Big Picture — October 2016]
On the House side, Democrats are expected to trim the GOP’s majority, but not by more than 20 seats.
In races for seats in both chambers, turnout, too, could cost the GOP some seats, as Republicans dissatisfied with Trump as the nominee stay home. The GOP was buoyed by the FBI announcement that it would look at emails sent and received by a Clinton aide — something that could reduce turnout on the Democratic side, aiding downticket Republicans. But that fallout is still unclear, while the unhappiness with Trump among establishment Republicans has been a common problem throughout the entire campaign.
One casualty might be Issa. California is considered an easy win for Clinton, further discouraging Republicans from going to the polls. But the Senate race won’t bring out GOP voters either, notes Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. The Golden State has an open, all-party primary, with the two top vote-getters facing off in the general election. The Senate contenders are both Democrats — Kamala Harris and Rep. Loretta Sanchez — so Republicans in Issa’s district would need to be motivated enough to come out and vote just for him, a tall order for any House contender.
“Republican strategists are most concerned about turnout” when it comes to the House and Senate races, says Nathan Gonzalez, an analyst with the nonpartisan Rothenberg Report. “Early in the cycle, they might have been concerned about the ‘Never Trump’ movement,” but now they are worried Republicans just won’t bother going to the polls, he adds. Trump’s own warnings that the election is “rigged” paradoxically might also discourage his own supporters from voting, Gonzalez says. And all of that, experts agree, means gains — though perhaps not determinate ones — for the sitting president’s party.
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Donald Trump Hurts His Party’s Chances in the House and Senate originally appeared on usnews.com
