It is tough to ask a sport that has 150-plus years of implied insanity to suddenly show some sense of order.
Like horse racing’s Triple Crown challenge isn’t three stages of one competition as much as three separate races looking for their best interests, the FBS conferences are a loose (and we use that term loosely) confederation of organizations looking for their own best interests at the expense of others.
Inside those leagues are schools looking for their best interests at the expense of everyone else, including a fellow conference member that might be five hours down the road.
Lane Kiffin’s leap from Ole Miss to LSU last weekend was hardly an isolated incident in the coaching carousel. In fact, we’ve got that closer to home with James Madison’s Bob Chesney heading cross country to UCLA.
But to bail on a school all but assured of a College Football Playoff berth for a conference foe? Welcome to the “silly season” of the sport, when National Signing Day has passed and Penn State is still looking for its new head coach.
Friday’s games
Sun Belt Conference: No. 19 James Madison (11-1) vs. Troy (8-4), 7 p.m., ESPN
The skinny and history: JMU can make its playoff case with a win plus a Virginia loss (as the Dukes would likely be ranked higher than ACC champ Duke), while the Trojans try to become the first three-time winner in the eight-year history of this game. Although both of its wins came at home, Troy is 2-0 in this game as host James Madison makes its first trip to the title tilt.
The matchup: The Dukes’ defense leads the Sun Belt in stopping the run and pass, containing foes on third down, while also allowing the fewest total yards and points this fall. Troy’s last in running the ball while allowing the most sacks in the conference, meaning JMU will likely be putting tons of pressure on Trojans quarterback Goose Crowder. Troy’s Donnie Smith leads the conference with nine sacks, making it necessary for the Dukes’ Wayne Knight to carry the mail and provide balance.
Presto’s pick: Dukes give Chesney a nice parting gift in the form of a 34-12 win.
Conference USA: Kennesaw State (9-3) at Jacksonville State (8-4), 7 p.m., CBSSN
The skinny and history: Jacksonville State is actually not in Florida, but in Alabama. The Gamecocks are defending champs and handed the Owls a 35-26 defeat Nov. 15, one of five Jacksonville State single-digit wins this fall. Kennesaw State is making its first championship game appearance and moved to FBS only last season.
The matchup: JSU’s Cam Cook leads FBS in rushing (1,588 yards on 5.7 per carry with 15 touchdowns) and rumbled for 132 yards and a score in the November meeting. KSU wide receiver Gabriel Benyard leads C-USA in receiving yards (877) and in his last four games has made 19 catches for 383 yards and six TDs. The only non-two touchdown game in that span? The loss to Jacksonville State.
Presto’s pick: Owls win this battle of the birds, 30-24.
American Conference: No. 20 North Texas (11-1) at No. 21 Tulane (10-2), 8 p.m., ABC
The skinny and history: Navy should be here, right? Football factory Tulane is making its fourth straight appearance in this game, while the Mean Green are making their first trip since joining the then-American Athletic Conference in 2013. Their last conference title was the 2004 Sun Belt. Tulane won the most recent meeting, a 45-37 victory in Denton last year.
The matchup: North Texas leads FBS in total offense (511 yards per game) and scoring (46.8) behind quarterback Drew Mestemaker (3,835 yards and 29 touchdowns passing), while running back Caleb Hawkins (1,216 yards and 23 touchdowns rushing) keeps opponents honest with his feet. Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff led BYU to 11 wins last season.
Presto’s pick: North Texas wins a 21st century shootout, 45-40.
Mountain West: UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (8-4), 8 p.m., FOX
The skinny and history: Tiebreakers were exhausted after four schools finished tied for first at 6-2, and the participants in the title game were determined by various metrics. The Broncos have won a league-high five championship games while the Rebels are 0-2 in the title tilt. Boise State won the regular season meeting 56-31.
The matchup: Former Virginia quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw for 3,050 yards with the Rebels, and his 22 touchdown passes are close to the 26 he threw in two seasons for the Cavaliers. Dylan Riley may not have Ashton Jeanty’s numbers from last season, but the sophomore ran for a season-high 201 yards in the Broncos win over UNLV.
Presto’s pick: Rebels in a shocker, 31-17.
Saturday’s games
Big 12: No. 5 Texas Tech (11-1) vs. No. 11 BYU (11-1), noon, ABC
The skinny and history: The Cougars are playing for a spot in the playoff while the Red Raiders are playing for a potential first-round bye. Both schools are making their first appearance in this game while Texas Tech won the regular season meeting 29-7 in Lubbock.
The matchup: Texas Tech led the conference in scoring while allowing just 11.2 points per game, and they’re led on defense by pass-rushing dynamo David Bailey (12.5 sacks). BYU’s LJ Martin’s 1,229 yards rushing paced the Big 12 but he was held to 35 yards on 10 carries in the November meeting.
Presto’s pick: Red Raiders roll, 37-12.
Mid-American: Western Michigan (8-4) vs. Miami (OH) (7-5), noon, ESPN
The skinny and history: Why isn’t the MAC championship being played on a Tuesday? WMU is looking for its first title since 2016, while this Miami is a conference championship game regular (third straight appearance with its most recent title coming two years ago). And the RedHawks won the regular season meeting 26-17 after outscoring the Broncos 17-0 in the fourth quarter.
The matchup: “You can’t spell the MAC without a D” might not make sense at face value, but both teams boast major difference-makers on that side of the ball. Western Michigan’s Nadame Tucker tied for the conference lead in sacks with 12, while Miami’s Corban Hondru tallied 83 tackles, two sacks and three interceptions.
Presto’s pick: Miami makes it happen, 28-20.
SEC: No. 3 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 10 Alabama (10-2), 4 p.m., ABC
The skinny and history: The Bulldogs are playing for a first-round bye, while there are those who feel a bad loss would knock the Crimson Tide out of the playoff. Alabama won the regular season meeting in Athens 24-21 and has taken 10 of the last 11 meetings, including all four previous SEC Championship Game matchups — effectively making Atlanta a Tuscaloosa suburb.
The matchup: Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson threw for two touchdowns and ran for a third in the September win, while the Bulldogs’ Gunner Stockton was held to 130 yards as Georgia went 2-8 on third down. Expect a clean matchup (two of the three least-penalized teams in the conference) and don’t be surprised if it’s “four down territory” early and often for the Tide (league-high 20 for 30 on fourth down).
Presto’s pick: The jinx continues as Alabama wins 20-16.
Big Ten: No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. No. 2 Indiana (12-0), 8 p.m., FOX
The skinny and history: The last two remaining unbeatens in FBS square off, and while the Buckeyes boast the most Big Ten titles in the championship game era with five, they haven’t won the title since 2020. The Hoosiers are trying to win their first conference title since 1967 and haven’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1988, although the two schools tied in 1990, and OSU’s 2010 win was vacated due to “Tattoogate” (look it up). They lost last year in Columbus 38-15.
The matchup: If quarterback is the name of the game, both schools have enjoyed elite play with Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza (2,758 yards and 32 touchdowns passing) shining for the Hoosiers his first fall on campus while Buckeyes redshirt freshman Julian Sayin (3,065 and 30) exceeded expectations in his first year as a starter. Mendoza and Sayin will be tested Saturday as they’ll be facing elite defenses: Ohio State allows an FBS-low 7.8 points per game while Indiana (10.9) ranks second nationally.
Presto’s pick: Midnight strikes for the Hoosiers in a 23-14 loss.
ACC: No. 16 Virginia (10-2) vs. Duke (7-5), 8 p.m., ABC
The skinny and history: The Cavaliers are playing for their first College Football Playoff berth while a Blue Devils win would likely rob the ACC of a spot in the bracket. Both are making their second appearances in Charlotte: Duke lost by 38 to Florida State in 2013 while Virginia fell by 45 to Clemson in 2019. The Cavaliers won the regular season showdown three weeks ago in Durham 34-17 and have taken nine of the last 10 in the series.
The matchup: Duke leads the ACC with 289.3 passing yards per game, but Virginia held quarterback Darian Mensah to a season-low 33.3 QBR while sacking him four times in November. The Blue Devils defense has coughed up 34 points a game since the start of November and surrendered big days to Cavaliers running back J’Mari Taylor (133 yards rushing and two touchdowns) and wide receiver Trell Harris (eight catches for 161 yards and a score).
Kippy and Buffy head to Charlotte for a reunion with longtime tailgating pals Henry and Hildy (Kip and Henry were roommates as first-year students), and they’re pouring a bottle of Carlisle 2019 Dry Creek Valley Zinfandel.
“Cherries, white pepper, rose petal and a dusty, ferrous-like quality delight the nose. A very compelling sniff!” reads the winery website. “On the palate, medium-full to full-bodied with flavors of red cherry, loamy earth and bouquet garni … a bit more savory and mineral-driven in character.”
Presto’s pick: Cavaliers drive their way to the College Football Playoff with a 31-16 victory.
Last week: 2-2
Season: 91-28
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