Heading into conference championship weekend, we have a better sense of which teams can still play their way into the College Football Playoff.
WASHINGTON — The Playoff is nearly upon us, but the field of teams that can still make the Final Four is surprisingly large.
We looked at the teams alive before last weekend, but that group has shrunk. With their loss to Stanford, Notre Dame is toast. Through no fault of their own, so is undefeated UCF, which the committee ranked behind five two-loss teams and three-loss (!) Stanford. That TCU and USC are both slotted behind idle and hopeless Penn State doesn’t feel like an accident — there’s just too much room to gain. That leaves us with eight teams, seven of which are playing this weekend, with a shot to make the College Football Playoff. Let’s look at where they each stand heading into Saturday.
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
1. Clemson
There’s no good reason for Clemson to be #1. Really. For a committee that seems obsessed with strength of schedule, the Tigers somehow get a pass. Their most impressive win was a Week 2, 14-6 home victory over Auburn. The rest of the ACC has proven to be very soft (what was Virginia Tech’s best win, exactly?), and they haven’t had to play Miami until this weekend. That loss to Syracuse may have been with a banged up QB, but the Orange have only one other conference win. Despite all that, the committee seems to love the defending champs, who are certainly in with a win over the Hurricanes Saturday.
Path to playoff: Beat Miami
(Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
2. Auburn
The Tigers are the ultimate eye-test team, having beaten the #1 team in the country twice in three weeks. Of course, they also have two losses, but they came at the two Death Valleys, notoriously tough places to play, against good Clemson and LSU squads. Auburn has given itself the chance, with another win over Georgia, to secure its spot. This is another simple case, where the Tigers need a win to get in.
Path to playoff: Beat Georgia
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
3. Oklahoma
Baker Mayfield and the prolific Sooner offense haven’t been stopped or even really slowed yet this year, as only Texas held them under 30 points…in a 29-24 OU win. TCU came to Norman three weeks ago having allowed just 27 points over its prior four contests, then promptly coughed up 38 in an 18-point loss. Sure, maybe the Horned Frogs can turn the tables, but there’s no good reason to think so. OU won’t need style points — any win will get them to the promised land.
Path to playoff: Beat TCU
(Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images)
Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images
4. Wisconsin
The Rodney Dangerfield of this year’s voting (non-UCF edition), Wisconsin simply can’t seem to do anything to get the committee to love them. By luck of the draw, they had as easy a Big Ten schedule as they could have been given, but they’ve only been in a single one-possession game, a 17-9 win over Purdue in mid-October. The Badgers are the only undefeated Power Five school, yet their margin for error is essentially non-existent. A loss to Ohio State almost certainly dooms them, and could possibly be the death knell for both squads, if the committee wants to get out of making a hairy decision (a la Baylor/TCU in 2014).
Path to playoff: Beat Ohio State
(Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images)
Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
5. Alabama
The Tide are in the odd position of being spectators to conference championship weekend, and if the committee is true to its values, there should be a lot of nervous folks in Tuscaloosa these days. Quick: name Alabama’s best win. At home against LSU? A squeaker over a Mississippi State team that got upended by Ole Miss last week? A Week 2 blowout of (gulp) Fresno State? The truth is, ‘Bama really doesn’t have much of a resume, and without a chance to improve, they need help. If Ohio State blows out Wisconsin, you really think they’ll be left out?
Path to playoff: Ohio State beats Wisconsin unconvincingly or TCU beats Oklahoma
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
6. Georgia
It doesn’t really matter where Georgia sits in the poll right now — after all, it wasn’t so long ago the Bulldogs were #1. They’ve got a pair of SEC teams ahead of them, both of which they will jump with an SEC title game victory. In avenging their lone loss of the season to Auburn, the Bulldogs would be a shoe-in.
Path to playoff: Beat Auburn
(Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images
7. Miami
Like Georgia, it has to be a little disappointing for Miami to find itself this low, but the Hurricanes only have themselves to blame after their letdown loss to Pitt. None of that will matter, though, if they can beat Clemson. While the ACC was mediocre, their utter destruction of Notre Dame has lifted the ‘Canes’ national profile to the point where they shouldn’t need help as a one-loss conference champ to make it in. They’re underdogs, but there’s no reason to think they can’t beat Clemson and be playoff bound.
Path to playoff: Beat Clemson
(Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
8. Ohio State
Like Alabama, Ohio State’s future is cloudy. Unlike the Crimson Tide, the Buckeyes have the chance to make the same kind of statement they did in 2014. They find themselves favorites against undefeated Wisconsin, but will likely need more than a simple win to get into the fray with two losses. A convincing blowout of the Badgers gives them a chance at the fourth spot.
Path to playoff: Blow out Wisconsin, hope the committee cares more about conference titles than SEC prowess
(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
