Dave Preston is an AP Top 25 voter. Read his ballots here.
College basketball’s cruelest word is “close.” It starts on the recruiting trail when a school is oh-so-close to landing a program-changing player and continues when a team is close to negating an Achilles’ heel (bad defense, poor free throw shooting, turnover epidemic) that has a knack for surfacing at the worst possible time with numbing regularity.
Close losses in January and February can make the winter weather even colder and a close loss in March can turn a dream season into a nightmare finish.
George Washington (13-10, 4-6 Atlantic 10) has been dealing with “close” since league play began, as the team was within a whisker of upsetting nationally ranked Saint Louis on their floor last week, only to see Robbie Avila can a 3 with three seconds left in a 79-76 Billikens win. It was the fourth single-digit loss in conference play for coach Chris Caputo’s team, and the loss was followed up by the injury to Rafael Castro.
The GW forward doesn’t just set the tone for this team, he leads the Revolutionaries in scoring, rebounding, shooting percentage, blocks and steals. Minus their big man, the Revolutionaries were outrebounded by 18 by Fordham in a 14-point loss last weekend and shot 9-22 from 2-point range in Wednesday’s 76-73 loss to Saint Joe’s.
Suddenly in ninth place, the chances of playing in the dreaded first round of the conference tournament becomes a possibility with a schedule that won’t let up — games against VCU, Dayton and George Mason loom.
GW isn’t the only local to be dealing with close losses this week: George Mason (20-3, 8-2) shot 0-3 with three turnovers in the final two minutes against Duquesne as the Dukes finished Wednesday’s game with a 10-0 run in a 71-65 shocker. And American (13-11, 6-5 Patriot League) has dropped consecutive nail-biters to Lafayette and Bucknell.
Up top: Unbeaten Arizona remains No. 1 on my ballot and overall, while Michigan’s impressive wins over top 10 teams Nebraska and Michigan State propel the Wolverines to No. 2 ahead of UConn for me this week. Biggest variances: I had No. 6 Gonzaga 11th and No. 13 Texas Tech 19th. Toughest omissions: Arkansas, George Mason, Louisville and UNC-Wilmington. Small school shout-outs: Saint Louis, Miami (Ohio) and Utah State.
Going inside: Howard (14-9, 4-3 MEAC) moves within a game of conference-leading North Carolina Central, thanks to its fifth victory in six games. Monday’s 72-53 rout of Coppin State saw the Bison D earn an A by holding the Eagles to 2-16 from three-point range.
Senior Bryce Harris ranks second in the conference in scoring (17.3 points per game) while his 6.9 rebounds per game leads the league, and he has help this winter in the form of Morehouse College transfer Cedric Taylor III (21 points and seven rebounds per game since Jan. 11). HU plays four of its next five games at Burr Gymnasium in D.C., including a Feb. 21 showdown with first place NC Central.
Perimeter pass: Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-5 ACC) finds itself squarely on the bubble after falling at home 72-58 to No. 4 Duke on Saturday. The Hokies are the first team out in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN, and the fourth team to miss the cut according to CBS Sports. They’ll have multiple opportunities to play their way into the field between now and Selection Sunday, with road games at No. 14 North Carolina, No. 18 Virginia and No. 20 Clemson, plus fellow NCAA hopefuls Miami and NC State.
Causes for confidence include their 8-3 record in single digit games this winter, an ability to defend the 3 (second best in the ACC) and the emergence of transfer and Maryland native Amani Hansberry, who leads the team in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. He scored 20 points against Duke; let’s see how he and the Hokies fare at NC State this weekend.
Who’s open: After enjoying double duty the last few seasons when the ACC and Atlantic 10 held their postseason tournaments at Capital One Arena, D.C. hosts just one conference tournament this March. The Coastal Athletic Association returns to CareFirst Arena for the fifth time in six years. UNC-Wilmington won the tournament last season and begins February one-half game ahead of the College of Charleston (Cougars won the CAA Tournament in 2024).
The two teams play each other Feb. 9 and March 1. Preseason favorite Towson took the regular season title last year, but begins this Feb. 5-6 in the conference and part of a crowded second tier (one game separates fifth from 11th place entering February).
Even with Preseason Player of the Year Tyler Tejada, the offensively challenged Tigers rank 11th in the CAA in scoring, 12th in shooting and last from 3-point range.
Final shot: Georgetown (13-10, 5-7 Big East) has turned its season around with its first four-game regular season conference winning streak since 2015. But none of the Hoyas’ victims in the streak own a winning league record at this time, and Saturday they welcome a Villanova (17-5, 8-3) team that’s on the cusp of the Top 25. The Wildcats bring a balanced offense (six players ranging from 9.5 to 13.6 points per game) that leads the Big East in 3-point shooting.
‘Nova also has a familiar face running things on the sidelines in the form of ex-Maryland coach Kevin Willard, whose somewhat sticky departure from College Park last March marred what was the best season for the program in 10 years. And with a lost season in full swing for the Terps, one might imagine a few fans that still might be sore showing up at Capital One Arena to properly say farewell. I’ll see you courtside.
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