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Get ready for six days of noticing truTV! Yes, the channel that brought you “Hair Jacked!” get its annual, “Where is that channel?” and “Who watches these shows?” treatment when the men’s tournament begins Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, with a pair of doubleheaders.
Tuesday’s nightcap features Virginia (23-10, 13-7 ACC), a school that many had ticketed to the NIT after their last-minute collapse in regulation (They led 58-52 with 52 seconds left, missing a pair of what would have been game-sealing free throws) and defeat in overtime to an NC State team playing its fourth game in four nights. That left the room in Charlottesville a little on edge Sunday evening.
“Going into the Selection Show, this year was a little different (Cavaliers were a No. 4 seed in 2023). We were on the bubble, we weren’t sure we were going to be here,” guard Isaac McKneely said. “It was a little nerve-wracking, but just to see our name come up it was a blessing. I know we’re all excited to be here. I know we’re all excited to hopefully make a run.”
University of Virginia is 12 months removed from losing in heartbreaking fashion to Furman and hasn’t won a tournament game since they captured the 2019 National Championship. They draw Colorado State (24-10, 10-8 Mountain West), who got off to a 13-1 start (lone loss came to Saint Mary’s) and was ranked as high as No. 13 on Jan. 1. The Rams are led by Isaiah Stevens (17 points and an MWC-best seven assists per game), who’ll give Reece Beekman all he can handle in a duel of dynamic point guards.
“He’s one of the best passers I’ve seen,” Coach Tony Bennett said. “His composure, the way they use him whether it’s ball screens or triple-handoffs or little actions and then they’re cutting the other guys. Their physicality, just their spacing and cutting. They score in different ways — it’s impressive.”
Playing in Dayton is not a death sentence: in 11 of the 12 years since that city has hosted the First Four one of the at-large schools has gone on to win at least one game in the main bracket (VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 both advancing to the Final Four). Will the Cavaliers enjoy a run like that or another early March exit? Tuesday at 9:10 p.m. we’ll find that out.
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The remainder of the Midwest Region also carries plenty of March baggage: No. 1 seed Purdue joined Virginia in infamy by losing to a No. 16 seed last year and hasn’t reached the Final Four since 1980, while No. 2 Tennessee has never been to a Final Four despite 25 appearances. By the way, the Volunteers draw 2022 darling St. Peter’s in the First Round. No. 3 Creighton came within a whisker of making their first Final Four last March. On the other end of the spectrum, you have blueblood Kansas (four National Championships), nouveau riche Gonzaga (25 straight NCAA appearances) and original champ Oregon (Ducks won the 1939 tournament).
Midwest “Bold” (which team in the bracket wins a game or two beyond their seeding), “Fold” (which school will underperform its seeding) and “Gold” (who goes to Glendale, Arizona, and the Final Four) picks:
Bold
McNeese won 30 games under first-year coach Will Wade, who had previously led VCU and LSU to the Big Dance (I know, no initials involved in this job). The Cowboys rank third nationally in turnover margin and defensive field goal percentage allowed and play a Gonzaga team that got a No. 5 seed despite being on the bubble as recently as early February. Giddy up.
Fold
Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the preseason but has fallen on hard times as of late, losing four of its last five (9-9 over its last 18 games). Their 20-point loss to Cincinnati in the Big 12 Tournament saw the Jayhawks try to play without center Hunter Dickinson (dislocated shoulder) and Kevin McCullar (bone bruise in the knee). The duo account for 48% of the team’s scoring and 47% of the squad’s rebounding. Both are question marks for their First Round game with Samford. Both are needed to produce if this team is to return to the Sweet Sixteen.
Gold
Purdue’s loss to Farleigh Dickinson last March was just the tip of the iceberg regarding their Big Dance demons. The storied program (11th all-time with 1,075 wins after the 2022-23 season) is 0-3 in Regional Finals games since 1980 and 3-10 in Sweet Sixteen games in that span, and then there’s the recent stretch of three straight seasons losing to a double-digit seed. But Coach Matt Painter brought the band back this past winter and while Zach Edey (24 points and 12 rebounds per game) responded with another National Player of the Year performance, it’s the elevated play of guard Braden Smith (12 points, six rebounds, and seven rebounds per game) who’s a year wiser as a sophomore that has one confident the Boilermakers finally break through.
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