The final week of February brings two phrases back to the college basketball scene: “seeding” and “the bubble.” Even with their 79-72 loss at Ohio State Sunday, Maryland is competing for a top-three seed in next month’s NCAA Tournament.
Why is three a magic number? Because as a top-four seed they’d be protected and sent closer to the Terps natural region (likely New York City and Madison Square Garden for the East Regional), but they wouldn’t have to face the region’s top seed until the round of eight. Right now, the Terps (22-5, 12-4 Big Ten) are projected to be a No. 2 seed by the “Bracketologists”; with regions varying from South (ESPN), Midwest (CBS Sports), East (USA Today), and Midwest (NBC Sports). But three of the four have Maryland going to Greensboro (USA Today the outlier with Tampa as their first weekend destination) to begin the tournament. Virginia (19-7, 11-5 ACC) is a potential second-round foe for the Terps according to ESPN and CBS, as the Cavaliers are a No. 7 and No. 10 seed in those models (UVA is No. 9 seed according to USA Today and NBC).
On the other side of the seeding coin is the bubble: right now Georgetown (15-12, 5-9 Big East) is squarely on the underbelly thanks to consecutive losses with USA Today listing the Hoyas as one of the “first four teams out” while ESPN and CBS have them in the “next four out.” Richmond (20-7, 10-4 Atlantic 10) is also on the bubble, with CBS having the Spiders playing in the First Four while the other three models have them in the “first four out.” Meaning Coach Chris Mooney’s team can ill afford another misstep between now and the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Wow of the Week: Defending National Champion Virginia owns the longest winning streak in the ACC; four straight victories have moved the Cavaliers off the bubble and into the NCAA field. Coach Tony Bennett’s grinders actually enjoyed a breather when they beat Boston College; the 78-65 triumph was just their second double-digit win since Jan. 1. While offense can leave for the NBA early (Kyle Guy, De’Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome) but the rock that this program has been built upon is defense; and the Cavaliers lead the NCAA in scoring defense while ranking second in defensive field goal percentage. But the schedule ratchets up over the final two weeks with a pair of road games along with home matchups against teams currently in the top ten.
Player Spotlight: Maryland sophomore Aaron Wiggins led the Terps with 20 points in Sunday’s loss at Ohio State while making 6 of 13 from three-point range. In his five other games this month, the guard is averaging seven points with four boards and two assists while shooting 36% and 5-23 from outside the arc. For the Terrapins to shine in March and get to Saturday’s Semifinals in the Big Ten Tournament and the second week of the NCAA’s, they need more than Jalen Smith inside and Anthony Cowan outside. With Eric Ayala (26% from three after making 41% as a freshman) still looking for his shot, that may fall to Wiggins in the coming weeks.
League Look: The Big Ten has four schools ranked in the Top 25 with six others likely making the tournament field if today was Selection Sunday (and obviously it is not, but still …). Two more are on the bubble, with Minnesota and Purdue needing to microwave their way down the stretch to get into the postseason conversation. While Maryland owns a two game cushion with four to play, there’s a five-way tie for second place at 10-6 and then one game separates seventh from tenth place. Talk about fluid standings.
Ballot Battles: Saturday saw three of the top four teams in the nation tumble; and that bled over to Sunday when then-No. 7 Maryland fell at Ohio State. Kansas is the new No. 1 thanks to its victory at previously top-ranked Baylor. Small school shout-outs this week welcome Liberty (26-3) to the party, with Stephen F. Austin, East Tennessee State, and Northern Iowa remaining in the mix. Toughest decision was how far to drop the Terps — I slid them three spots after the defeat, behind Duke and San Diego State to the dismay of a few. After last Monday, when my Washington Post Sunday Magazine crossword became Twitter fodder, I’m happy to be roasted by fans from all offended schools this week.
This Week’s Starting Five:
Wednesday — Virginia at Virginia Tech. The Cavaliers took the January meeting by 26, and the Hokies have lost seven of eight to fall out of NCAA contention. Freshman Landers Nolley II has officially hit the wall, also known as that time of the season when first-year players have logged more minutes and games than they did during their high school career. The team’s leading scorer is averaging 9.3 points with 8 rebounds over his last three games while shooting 18% from the field and 1-for-17 from three point range. He’s going to find scoring against the Cavaliers even more difficult.
Also Wednesday — No. 9 Maryland at Minnesota. Beware late February, Terrapin Nation. How many times have we seen a highly-regarded Terps team go on the road and get shocked in Lincoln, State College, or Minneapolis? The Golden Gophers may have lost five of seven and rank third-worst in the Big Ten in shooting, but still boast a big man to be reckoned with. Daniel Oturu’s 11.4 rebounds per game leads the conference and his 19.7 points per game is second-best behind Luka Garza. Jalen Smith, just a few days removed from dealing with Ohio State’s Kaleb Wesson, will have his hands full once again.
Also Wednesday — American vs. Lafayette. The Eagles own a one-game lead in the race for third place in the Patriot League, but the Leopards currently own the tiebreaker thanks to their 12-point win in Easton at the beginning of the month. It was a day where AU shot 15% from three-point range and couldn’t contain Justin Jaworski (32 points on 11-17 shooting). Sa’eed Nelson is two points away from becoming the school’s all-time leading scorer; he’ll need help from his supporting cast after they shot 14-42 (33%) in Sunday’s loss at Boston University.
Saturday — George Washington at VCU. It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Rams, who have lost four straight and five of six to light a match to their at-large hopes. The coveted double-bye is also almost gone for Mike Rhoades team. GW has won two of three to position itself away from the A-10’s dreaded first round for the first time in three years.
Sunday — Georgetown vs Xavier. Schools with 8-10 conference records have made the NCAA Tournament before, but four games under .500 is almost the at-large kiss of death. That’s where the Hoyas are on track to land, unless they get things in gear quickly. The Musketeers are on the top half of most bubbles. They also lead the Big East in rebounding margin and defending the three; the Hoyas lead the conference in crucial injuries with Mac McClung (eight minutes played this month due to a foot injury) and Omer Yurtseven (five points and eight rebounds in the loss at DePaul after missing the previous two games with a sprained ankle) question marks moving forward.
