You may not have turned your attention to college basketball yet, but it's never too early to look ahead to which teams might be busting brackets come March.
WASHINGTON — Just like many casual NBA fans don’t start to tune in until Christmas Day, plenty of non-avid college hoops watchers may not do so until conference play, or even NCAA Tournament time.
That’s why, for every UMBC-type stunner in March Madness , there are always other lesser-known teams who show signs early in the season of potentially making a deep run in the tourney.
There are a handful of mid-majors who have become household names — Gonzaga and Wichita State are March regulars. After their Sweet Sixteen run last year, Nevada is back and better than ever.
But, there are a number of other schools further off the radar worth making a mental note of. Specifically, these are non-major conference teams that have a chance to bust brackets come tournament time.
Buffalo (12-1)
Some of you may already be aware of Buffalo, given that they’ve muscled their way into the AP Top 25 already this season. And, even though the Bulls were exposed a bit in their 103-85 loss at Marquette, they have already won at West Virginia and at Syracuse.
They have the 22nd -best offensive efficiency in the country (matched with the 55th -best defense) and hardly ever turn the ball over. Even if something horrible befalls them in the MAC tournament, if they can get through their conference slate with only a loss or two, an at-large bid seems eminently reasonable.
(AP Photo/Peter Morrison )
AP Photo/Peter Morrison
Houston (13-0)
The Cougars are no stranger to mid-major success, but even ranked 19th in the nation, this team feels like it’s flying under the radar. Houston hasn’t beaten any name-brand teams, but they have a slew of quality wins, including road victories at BYU and Oklahoma State, and home wins over Oregon and LSU.
They’ll likely battle it out with Cincinnati for conference supremacy, but with the nation’s second-best effective field goal percentage against, don’t sleep on Houston’s bracket-busting ability.
(AP Photo/John Minchillo )
AP Photo/John Minchillo
San Francisco (12-2)
USF hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since the ’70s, before its self-imposed death penalty, but this could be the year that streak ends. Behind incredibly-named senior point guard Frankie Ferrari, they have beaten both Cal and Stanford, and gave Buffalo all they could handle.
Head coach Kyle Smith has produced 20-win seasons in each of his first two years since coming over from Columbia, but the Dons will need an impressive showing in the WCC and likely a run to the conference finals to get enough national attention for an at-large berth.
(AP Photo/Peter Morrison )
AP Photo/Peter Morrison
Murray State (9-2)
Led by assist machine Ja Morant — who’s also averaging 23 points per game, nearly double anyone else on the squad — the Racers have put scares into both Auburn and Alabama on the road, but don’t have a marquee win yet. They can defend, especially beyond the arc.
If they can make it out of the Ohio Valley, that combination of defense and a singular, transcendent guard could ruin somebody’s opening weekend.
(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt )
AP Photo/Vasha Hunt
Wofford (10-4)
The Terriers don’t have any wins that stand out so far, but they’ve challenged themselves against the likes of Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Mississippi State, hanging in against all four well into the second half. A Top-40 offense ranks well across the board, while the defense is the eighth-stingiest in allowing offensive rebounds, limiting second-chance opportunities.
Without those signature wins, Wofford will need to get past tough conference foes East Tennessee State and UNC Greensboro to get into the dance. But if they do, they’ll be battle-tested.
(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner )
AP Photo/Orlin Wagner
Old Dominion (10-3)
After a tough 2-3 start, ODU has rattled off eight straight wins, including a 13-point victory over VCU and a triumph at Syracuse. The Monarchs own a Top 15 defense in the nation, including the third-best effective field goal percentage against, and the lowest two-point percentage against in Division I.
The Conference USA schedule does not offer any notable foes, but with an all-senior backcourt, ODU has the formula we’ve seen succeed in past tournaments.
(AP Photo/Nick Lisi )
AP Photo/Nick Lisi
New Mexico State (11-3)
The Aggies should have beaten Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse last month … but, they didn’t. Nevertheless, despite a roster that tops out at 6-foot-9, their rebounding is elite at both ends of the floor, meaning they won’t be overwhelmed by major conference size.
Though the junior-heavy squad mostly excels scoring points inside the arc, sharpshooters JoJo Zamora (44 percent) and CJ Bobbitt (42.4 percent) give New Mexico State firepower from deep as well. If they get out of the WAC, they could be trouble.
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel )
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Lipscomb (9-4)
Beating SMU on the road? Good. Beating TCU on the road three days later? Better.
The Bisons nearly snagged another road win at Louisville and haven’t had a bad loss yet. Their only true test in the Atlantic Sun will come from Liberty. If Lipscomb can survive that, they’ve already proven they can beat tournament-caliber teams.
(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins )
AP Photo/Ron Jenkins
Belmont (9-2)
The Bruins’ road win over fellow baby bears at UCLA isn’t as impressive as it may have been in another year, and they weren’t able to be competitive at Purdue, where they were out-rebounded by 10.
But, they’ve beaten aforementioned Lipscomb twice. If one team could give Murray State a run in the Ohio Valley, it’s Belmont.
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez )
AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez
Furman (11-2)
The Paladins announced themselves by taking down last year’s Final Four darlings Loyola-Chicago in the opening week of the season, but made headlines by taking down Villanova — in overtime, in Philly — eight days later.
They ran out to an 11-0 start and a spot in the Top 25, but it’s unclear how seriously to take them. They don’t pop off the page statistically, top out at 6-foot-8, and just dropped back-to-back games to LSU by 18 (not awful) and East Tennessee State by 23 (not great).
Four teams, including Wofford, will contend for the SoCon crown, which looks like the only way Furman will get in now.
(AP Photo/Gerald Herbert )
AP Photo/Gerald Herbert
Radford (8-6)
There might not be a more confounding team (Texas Southern, maybe?) than Radford this year. How to explain wins at Notre Dame and Texas, while making sense of losses to Duquesne, James Madison and Ohio?
The Highlanders figure to be a strong contender in the Big South, and their three-point shooting (12th in the country, at 40 percent as a team) is the kind of weapon that could drive a stake through a blueblood in the first round.
(AP Photo/Patrick Semansky )
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky