WASHINGTON — It’s finally March, which means it’s time to start talking about the greatest event in sports. Our crazy sports year kicked off in earnest with last year’s championship-winning buzzer beater in the title game of March Madness, so it would only be fitting for some epic storylines to develop in the tournament’s opening weekend this year to finish the cycle.
But what teams will sneak in to even have the chance to be the next Cinderella? Northwestern looks like it will finally go dancing, but the bubble is crowded with names both new and familiar. Much will be determined by the final games of the regular season, along with conference tournaments this week and next. Here are teams to keep an eye on whose fates could shape the way the field rounds out.
Note: All rankings as of Thursday, March 2.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File
Illinois State (25-5, 17-1 Missouri Valley) – RPI: 35, BPI: 57, KenPom Rank: 44
Wichita State has hogged the Missouri Valley spotlight for the better part of a decade now, but this is a two-team conference this season. The Redbirds sport one of the nation’s top defenses and split their two games with the Shockers, the loss being their only one in conference. An early flop could cost them an NCAA berth, but if they can make the conference finals, they should be in, win or lose.
(AP Photo/Eugene Tanner)
AP Photo/Eugene Tanner
Middle Tennessee (26-4, 16-1 Conference USA) – RPI: 32, BPI: 51, KenPom Rank: 47
America got to know the Blue Raiders last year when they stunned Michigan State in the opening round. This year, they’re flirting with 30 wins, including solid non-conference takedowns of Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and a near-miss on the road at VCU. They’ll be solid favorites heading into the Conference USA Tournament, but have built a pretty convincing at-large case should they slip in the finals, which could take a spot away from a fellow bubble team.
(AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
UNC Wilmington (26-5, 15-3 Colonial Athletic Association) – RPI: 39, BPI: 64, KenPom Rank: 59
In the wild, wild world of the CAA Tournament, nothing is sacred. The top seed has made the finals in five of the last six seasons, but has won the tournament and the corresponding berth to the NCAA Tournament just once during that time. Major conference teams sitting on the edge will be pulling for the Seahawks to either flop early or finish the job, as their resume might just be strong enough to make it in as an at-large by making the CAA finals.
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
Xavier (18-12, 8-9 Big East) – RPI: 35, BPI: 40, KenPom Rank: 48
It’s hard to know what to make of the Musketeers, who were sitting at 18-6, 8-3 in the Big East on Feb. 8 and haven’t won since. They finish the conference slate with a very winnable game at DePaul, but will finish with 13 losses barring a miraculous turnaround in the conference tournament. If that comes in their first game, Xavier will have dropped seven of its final 12 – not exactly the way to impress the committee.
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)
AP Photo/John Minchillo
Rhode Island (20-9, 12-5 Atlantic 10) – RPI: 42, BPI: 37, KenPom Rank: 49
The Rams are doing everything they can to stretch the Atlantic 10 into a three-bid league, winning four straight, including a much-needed home victory over VCU last weekend. But with a down year for the conference, the Rams probably need to beat Davidson and run all the way to the conference finals to feel good about their chances. Anything short of that and they’ll need some help from the outside.
(AP Photo/Stew Milne)
AP Photo/Stew Milne
Syracuse (17-13, 9-8 ACC) – RPI: 76, BPI: 33, KenPom Rank: 52
The Orange have better wins than any bubble team — over Florida State, Virginia and Duke — but also some confounding losses, against the likes of UConn, St. John’s and Boston College. More importantly, they have 13 losses. No team has made the field with as many as 14 defeats since 2011, and unless ‘Cuse wins the ACC Tournament, that’s just where they’ll end up. Better add another good win or two before that happens.
(AP Photo/Nick Lisi)
AP Photo/Nick Lisi
California (19-10, 10-7 Pac-12) – RPI: 51, BPI: 46, KenPom Rank: 46
Cal’s season has been a laundry list of missed opportunities for the signature win that would punch its ticket to the dance: a four-point loss to Virginia, two five-point losses to Arizona, a buzzer-beating defeat to Oregon last week. They missed a chance for another good win Thursday, instead getting blown out at Utah. The Bears sport an excellent defense, which they’ll need to hold up in the regular season finale at Colorado, as well as in the conference tournament, where they’ll need a statement win to steal a spot.
(AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
AP Photo/Rick Scuteri
Michigan State (18-12, 10-7 Big Ten) – RPI: 46, BPI: 48, KenPom Rank: 51
Someone’s going to have to explain how Joe Lunardi projects Sparty as a 9 seed. In a Big Ten teeming with mediocrity, Michigan State doesn’t stand out at all, having won just twice away from home all season long. If they can’t do so again this weekend in College Park, they’ll be treading on name alone entering next week’s Big Ten Tournament at Verizon Center. The conference title looks entirely up for grabs, but if the Spartans don’t get it, they’ll likely join Syracuse as a 14-loss team trying to make its case in a crowded field.
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
Houston (20-9, 11-6 American) – RPI: 53, BPI: 34, KenPom Rank: 43
SMU and Cincinnati are locks not only to make the field, but for high seeds in a couple weeks. But Houston is firmly on the bubble and couldn’t take advantage of Thursday night’s game against the Bearcats for a marquee win. The Mustangs and Bearcats are the only teams the Cougars have lost to since late January, but they may need to beat at least one of them and reach the American Conference finals to feel good about their chances on Selection Sunday.
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)
AP Photo/John Minchillo
Wake Forest (17-12, 8-9 ACC) – RPI: 40, BPI: 30, KenPom Rank: 31
Wake saved its season (for now) with an 88-81 win over Louisville on Wednesday. But a trip to Blacksburg awaits and a loss there would give the Demon Deacons 13 for the year and 14 whenever they bow out of the ACC Tournament. It would also leave them with a losing conference record. That’s not impossible to overcome, given their solid peripheral numbers. But a team with just two Top 50 wins and a 7-12 record against the Top 100 could use at least two more victories to bolster its resume.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
AP Photo/Chuck Burton
Kansas State (18-12, 7-10 Big 12) – RPI: 59, BPI: 42, KenPom Rank: 35
K State could end up serving as the litmus test for just how good the committee believes the Big 12 is. Statistically the top-rated conference, it only has five certain participants. The Wildcats missed their best chance at a quality non-conference win, slipping by a point in College Park. But they’ve beaten West Virginia and Baylor, the latter on the road, and a win over Texas Tech Saturday would at least get them to 8-10 in conference. That, plus one conference tournament win, could be enough to sneak them in.
(AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
