WTOP's Dave Preston and Noah Frank talk Cinderellas, sleepers, favorites and more as the NCAA Tournament tips off.
WASHINGTON — The NCAA Tournament field is set. The bubble has popped for some, while the stage has been set for the next Cinderella team to swoop in and win America’s heart.
Who was snubbed? How did the local teams’ seeding shake out? Which schools might be dark horses? Who has the best chance of cutting down the nets in three weeks?
We answer those questions and more as we get you set to fill out your bracket. And don’t forget to join us for the WTOP College Basketball Bracket Challenge, new this year. It’s free to enter for your shot at $1 million and other great prizes.
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images
Two sides of the bubble
Perhaps the most glaring bubble team to be left on the outside was Illinois State, which did everything short of securing an automatic bid. The Redbirds went 27-6, including a 14-point win over Missouri Valley Tournament champ Wichita State, but fell to the Shockers in the conference tournament final.
At 18-14, Syracuse was a team many expected to make it, but was an understandable omission. The same can be said of 12-loss Cal and 15-loss TCU, each of whom simply came up a win or two short.
On the other side, Michigan State rode its reputation to a 9 seed despite 14 losses and a quarterfinal exit from the Big Ten Tournament, as did Vanderbilt despite 15 losses.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
Mid-major disrespect
As seemingly over-seeded as both the Spartans and Commodores were, mid majors suffered the inverse result. St. Mary’s — a team that has been ranked much of the year — was given just a 7 seed despite winning 30 games and suffering all but one of its losses at the hands of Gonzaga. The Gaels’ reward is tournament veteran and fellow mid-major VCU, ensuring one of those teams won’t advance.
Meanwhile, Dayton also earned a 7 seed, drawing criminally under-seeded Wichita State as a 10 seed. The Shockers are rated by KenPom.com as the eighth-best team in the entire country and is one of just four teams (along with Gonzaga, Kentucky and Villanova) with offensive and defensive efficiencies both in the Top 20 in the nation.
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Xavier – Thursday, 6:50 p.m.
The Terrapins drew a surprisingly high 6 seed despite dropping six of their final 10 games, including getting ousted by Northwestern in their first Big Ten Tournament game. Xavier is scuffling too, though, going just 6-7 without 15-point/5-assist man Edmund Sumner since his season-ending ACL injury. If the Terps advance, they’ll likely face a tough Florida State team…in Orlando.
(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images
No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 UNC Wilmington – Thursday, 12:40 p.m.
The second game on Thursday’s slate pits two teams with opposite styles, as Virginia’s top-rated defense hopes to shut down a Top 20 offense in UNC Wilmington. Only six teams have more wins than the Seahawks, the champions of the CAA regular season and tournament, but they’ve also only beaten one team in the field — 13 seed East Tennessee State. Virginia’s region is loaded with potential showdowns against Florida, Villanova and Duke.
(Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)
Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images
No. 9 Virginia Tech vs. No. 8 Wisconsin – Thursday, 9:40 p.m.
The Hokies boast wins over Duke and Virginia, but also losses to non-tournament teams NC State and Texas A&M. Buzz Williams’ team can score, but its 125th-ranked defense is the worst of any single digit seed. Tech draws a Badgers team that has lost six of 10, but sports a Top 10 defense and battle-tested seniors Nigel Hayes and Bronson Koenig. Even if the Hokies survive, they’ll square off with defending champion Villanova Saturday.
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)
AP Photo/Julie Jacobson
No. 10 VCU vs. No. 7 St. Mary’s – Thursday, 7:30 p.m.
Few teams got a worse draw than VCU, which has to travel all the way to Salt Lake City to play under-seeded St. Mary’s after playing three games in as many days this weekend in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. It’s a testament to the Rams’ tournament experience that they are only 4.5-point underdogs, but even if they swing the upset, they’ll have to bounce back and hope their press-heavy style holds up at altitude against Arizona in the second round.
(Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images
Sleepers
The way the bracket is arranged this year, there just doesn’t seem to be as many avenues for double-digit seeds to make the second weekend of the tournament as they have in years past. Tough draws for Wichita State and Rhode Island might put the clamps on their dreams. The Shockers likely will draw Kentucky in round two, while the Rams must overcome the A-10 Tournament Champion curse – the conference tournament winner has just one total NCAA Tournament win the past three seasons (St. Joseph’s last year) and just two in the last five years.
Perhaps the easiest Cinderella to envision is Middle Tennessee, which made its name by outing Michigan State in the first round last year. This year’s Blue Raiders squad is significantly better and draws a very green Minnesota team in the first round, with the Butler/Winthrop winner waiting if they advance.
If you’re looking for a dark horse to go a little further, aforementioned St. Mary’s rates in the top 30 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and would play its second weekend games in San Jose, just an hour’s drive from campus.
(AP Photo/Eric Schultz)
AP Photo/Eric Schultz
Favorites
Kansas can be prone to underachieving in the tournament, but their early exit from the Big XII Tourney means senior point guard Frank Mason and company will be well-rested. The Jayhawks also have perhaps the weakest top end of any region to compete with of any of the 1 seeds, along with games in Tulsa and Kansas City, where they’ll enjoy strong home-flavored crowds.
The West region is wide open and the top-heavy East could be a bloodbath. But the national champion could very well be decided by the winner of North Carolina and Kentucky if the two meet in the South regional final. Both teams are immensely talented and can beat you any number of ways.
Then again, anyone can win. That’s the beauty of the madness.
(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
Dave has been in the D.C. area for 10 years and in addition to working at WTOP since 2002 has also been on the air at Westwood One/CBS Radio as well as Red Zebra Broadcasting (Redskins Network).
