WASHINGTON — Life’s been pretty good so far for George Washington University. Fresh off their first NCAA appearance since the 2006-07 season, the Colonials (16-4, 6-1 A-10) are off to their best conference start since that year. They remain undefeated at the Smith Center, winning all nine contests thus far.
But despite winning 16 of their first 20 games, the Colonials are not on the pollsters’ radar, garnering nary a single vote for the AP Top 25 and just a handful in the USA Today Coaches Poll. The computers don’t seem to regard GW too highly either, with KenPom.com rating them 54th and ESPN’s BPI placing them 51st. Those ranks are partly dependent on strength of schedule, though, which will improve significantly over the next three weeks.
Beginning Tuesday night with their tilt in Richmond against conference leader #14 VCU, the Colonials play six games in 23 days, five against the other top four teams in the league, including the Rams twice. VCU (18 on KenPom, 18 in BPI), Rhode Island (59/59), Dayton (40/29) and Davidson (33/34) all rank in the top 60 in both metrics.
In spite of his record, Colonials head coach Mike Lonergan knows there have been cracks in the armor — weaknesses that he has been trying to address before GW heads into the gauntlet stretch of the season.
When things slow down, the offense can disappear. George Washington has scored 70 or more points in 12 of their 16 wins, but has been held to just a 49.3-point average in their four losses. Even after their 12-for-24 performance from behind the arc Saturday, the Colonials are still shooting just 33.8 percent from deep as a team, 188th in the country. In their losses, they are just 11-for-45 on three pointers, less than 25 percent.
Even more troubling, they rank just 227th in assists. Heading into a game against a VCU team that will press, trap and play zone throughout, those numbers will have to improve rapidly.
“Lonergan has worked really hard recently with making the guards shoot when they’re open,” says Byron Kerr, the team’s radio play-by-play man. “Their three-point percentage has been better in-conference.”
Sure enough, GW came out firing from deep early on Saturday against Duquesne’s collapsed 2-3 zone, which basically dared the Colonials to put up threes. GW was happy to oblige, draining three of their first four and six of their first nine, and hitting halftime with nine threes, already matching their season high. They finished with an even dozen on the afternoon in a 74-59 final that was never as close as the final score indicated.
Lonergan said the most important thing to him was the way his team moved the ball, opening up clean looks at the basket. “I was most proud of the fact that we had 13 assists on 15 baskets in the first half,” he said after the win.
The Colonials are led by the junior trio of Kethan Savage, Kevin Larsen and Joe McDonald, along with sophomore leading scorer Patricio Garino. And while that foursome will be key in every game the Colonials play, Lonergan knows he needs more from his bench. Paul Jorgensen and Nick Griffin pitched in 13 and nine points respectively Saturday, combining to go 5-for-9 from deep, but one more contributor from the rotation would be a huge boon for GW.
“I really need one more guy to step up,” Lonergan said. “Especially against VCU, who can really tire you out with their intensity.”
While he may not yet be GW’s best player, freshman forward Yuta Watanabe is the Colonials’ most intriguing possibility to become that X-factor. The 6-foot, 8-inch freshman from Tokyo is still somewhat wiry (he’s listed at 200 pounds), but glides smoothly around the floor, flashing a polished inside-outside game that belies his mere 20 years of age. He’s just the fourth Japan-born player in NCAA D1 basketball history, and the first to earn a scholarship.
Though he comes off the bench, Watanabe is GW’s fifth-leading scorer, averaging 7.5 points in just 21.1 minutes per game. He’s capable of hitting the outside shot, as he did late in the Colonials’ biggest win of the season, over Wichita State, and he shoots 82 percent from the free-throw line, second best on the team.
“He’s got NBA moves in a freshman body,” says Kerr. “He’s got great offensive skill. He can hit three pointers, can drive to the basket.”
But Watanabe’s biggest value moving forward may come as he improves on the defensive end. George Washington has held opponents to 59.4 points per game, good for the 30th-lowest total among the 351 Division I teams. While they play predominantly man-to-man, they will also integrate a 1-3-1 zone with the nimble, long-armed Watanabe at the top of the key throwing a wrench into opponents’ offensive flow.
One way or another, GW will need to take another step forward to establish themselves atop the A-10. First step: Beat VCU Tuesday night.
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