WASHINGTON — Regular readers know that last August, I created a model intended to crack how Baseball Writers Association of America voters would value performance and cast their ballots for each league’s MVP and Cy Young Awards. I was confident in the weight I had given the various numbers, but the model’s success exceeded even my lofty hopes for it.
Not only did it correctly predict all four major award-winners, it got the second-place finisher correct in three of the four races (the exception was the NL Cy Young, where the model had Clayton Kershaw second and Zack Greinke third; they finished in the opposite order).
For those who didn’t see last year’s piece, the model gives points for ranking in the top 10 in the league in various statistical categories. It also includes bonuses for the types of accomplishments often lauded and mentioned by writers as criteria that have led them to vote a certain way, such as 20 wins in the Cy Young race or making the playoffs in the MVP race.
This is both good news and bad news for Nationals fans when it comes to this year’s races. The numbers you see next to each player’s name in the slides to follow represent their raw score, which gives you an idea of how close each awards race is. See how all four races stack up entering the season’s home stretch.
(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
AP Photo/Alex Brandon
AL Cy Young
Rick Porcello: 74
Chris Sale: 73
Corey Kluber: 71
Justin Verlander: 64
David Price: 52
The American League races are incredibly close and the Cy Young is basically a three- or four-man toss-up with two weeks to play in the season. Rick Porcello’s edge only exists because he reached 20 wins. Chris Sale has been the most consistent across the board and has yet to be rewarded for his brilliance. The 2014 winner, Corey Kluber, leads the league in both FIP and WAR, and Justin Verlander has returned to the form that saw him snag a trio of top-three Cy Young finishes in four years from 2009-2012. The last couple rotation turns will decide this race.
(AP Photo/Ben Margot)
AP Photo/Ben Margot
AL MVP
David Ortiz: 54
Mookie Betts: 51
Mike Trout: 49
Josh Donaldson: 45
Jose Altuve: 43
The AL MVP is another toss-up and has a wrinkle: How much will David Ortiz’s monster season be affected (negatively) by his lack of a defensive position or (positively) by his retirement tour? Teammate Mookie Betts has posted a great all-around season, offering a different argument. Meanwhile, Mike Trout just keeps on being Mike Trout, but the Angels’ near-comical atrociousness in spite of his brilliance will no doubt cost him some votes. Could a late playoff push from Jose Altuve’s Astros make him a surprise winner?
(AP Photo/Elise Amendola)
AP Photo/Elise Amendola
NL Cy Young
Max Scherzer: 90
Madison Bumgarner: 60
Johnny Cueto: 55
Jon Lester: 55
Noah Syndergaard: 53
Max Scherzer appears to have a commanding edge over the field in the NL Cy Young battle. With no record-setting performances or historical numbers out there like a sub-2.00 ERA or 20 wins this season, Scherzer has the inside track as the leader in both traditional and newer statistical categories. He leads the league in strikeouts, quality starts and innings pitched, while also pacing the way in WHIP, strikeout rate and WAR. And he’s done all that while throwing the most innings. As well as Clayton Kershaw has pitched in limited time, he won’t even reach the minimum to qualify for pitching awards this year (1 IP per team game). The award seems Scherzer’s to lose.
(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
AP Photo/Nick Wass
NL MVP
Kris Bryant: 62
Nolan Arenado: 57
Daniel Murphy: 55
Anthony Rizzo: 44
Freddie Freeman: 36
Daniel Murphy has tougher competition in the MVP race. More traditional voters may prefer him if he does in fact hold on to win the batting title and because of his high RBI total. But Kris Bryant’s monster season — he leads the NL in WAR and runs scored, and is second in homers — combined with his superior defensive skills and versatility may push him in front. Nolan Arenado deserves more votes than he’ll actually get (the model probably needs a Coors Field penalty). Arenado finished third in raw score last year, but just eighth in the voting.
(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)
