Residents moving from D.C. and its surrounding suburbs are relocating further away than they have in the past, part of a national trend of remote workers leaving metropolitan cities for small rural communities.
An analysis from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service reveals that trend continued in 2023. Based on Census Bureau population estimates for counties across the country, migration away from counties with over a million residents was still twice as high as before the pandemic, according to the analysis. Migration into rural counties and other small metro neighborhoods rose in 2023.
The surge in migration out of big cities started in 2020, but the trend held true before the pandemic. UVA demographer Hamilton Lombard said remote work is playing a significant role in the way it has evolved.
During the housing boom, Lombard said people moving away from D.C., plus Arlington or Fairfax counties, often opted for places such as Loudoun or Culpeper counties. But now, they’re moving even further away.
“After COVID, we’ve seen relatively little migration to places like Loudoun,” Lombard said. “It’s going much further out.”
Instead, some people are moving to places such as Berkeley County, West Virginia. That area has seen one of the biggest surges of people entering the county since the pandemic, Lombard said.
“The median home price is half to a third that of Fairfax, and they’re building more new homes right now than Fairfax is,” Lombard said. “That’s been one of the big destinations, places like that really on the outer periphery of the D.C. metro area and beyond, that have often been some of the biggest gainers.”
In the past decade or two, Lombard said people leaving the D.C. region often moved to cities in North Carolina, such as Raleigh or Charlotte. Now, in addition to West Virginia, they’re considering the Eastern Shore or other small, rural neighborhoods.
Remote work allows people to buy homes away from major job centers in areas close enough that they can commute once or twice a week, if needed, Lombard said.
“A lot of people who might accept a job with the federal government don’t need to move to D.C., or if they do move to the region, they can live out on the periphery,” Lombard said. “They could live in Richmond, Virginia, and still work many federal jobs in D.C. We’re in a very different place in 2023 (and) 2024 than we were just back in 2019.”
The trend of moving away from big cities isn’t necessarily negative, because they could also attract remote workers, Lombard said.
“How far out you see people moving from the D.C. area is really striking,” he said.
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